Mathematical and Statistical Techniques for Systems Medicine: The Wnt Signaling Pathway as a Case Study

The last decade has seen an explosion in models that describe phenomena in systems medicine. Such models are especially useful for studying signaling pathways, such as the Wnt pathway. In this chapter we use the Wnt pathway to showcase current mathematical and statistical techniques that enable modelers to gain insight into (models of) gene regulation, and generate testable predictions. We introduce a range of modeling frameworks, but focus on ordinary differential equation (ODE) models since they remain the most widely used approach in systems biology and medicine and continue to offer great potential. We present methods for the analysis of a single model, comprising applications of standard dynamical systems approaches such as nondimensionalization, steady state, asymptotic and sensitivity analysis, and more recent statistical and algebraic approaches to compare models with data. We present parameter estimation and model comparison techniques, focusing on Bayesian analysis and coplanarity via algebraic geometry. Our intention is that this (non exhaustive) review may serve as a useful starting point for the analysis of models in systems medicine.Comment: Submitted to 'Systems Medicine' as a book chapte

Chaste: an open source C++ library for computational physiology and biology

Chaste - Cancer, Heart And Soft Tissue Environment - is an open source C++ library for the computational simulation of mathematical models developed for physiology and biology. Code development has been driven by two initial applications: cardiac electrophysiology and cancer development. A large number of cardiac electrophysiology studies have been enabled and performed, including high performance computational investigations of defibrillation on realistic human cardiac geometries. New models for the initiation and growth of tumours have been developed. In particular, cell-based simulations have provided novel insight into the role of stem cells in the colorectal crypt. Chaste is constantly evolving and is now being applied to a far wider range of problems. The code provides modules for handling common scientific computing components, such as meshes and solvers for ordinary and partial differential equations (ODEs/PDEs). Re-use of these components avoids the need for researchers to "re-invent the wheel" with each new project, accelerating the rate of progress in new applications. Chaste is developed using industrially-derived techniques, in particular test-driven development, to ensure code quality, re-use and reliability. In this article we provide examples that illustrate the types of problems Chaste can be used to solve, which can be run on a desktop computer. We highlight some scientific studies that have used or are using Chaste, and the insights they have provided. The source code, both for specific releases and the development version, is available to download under an open source Berkeley Software Distribution (BSD) licence at http://www.cs.ox.ac.uk/chaste, together with details of a mailing list and links to documentation and tutorials

A Multicellular Model of Intestinal Crypt Buckling and Fission

Crypt fission is an in vivo tissue deformation process that is involved in both intestinal homeostasis and colorectal tumourigenesis. Despite its importance, the mechanics underlying crypt fission are currently poorly understood. Recent experimental development of organoids, organ-like buds cultured from crypt stem cells in vitro, has shown promise in shedding light on crypt fission. Drawing inspiration from observations of organoid growth and fission in vivo, we develop a computational model of a deformable epithelial tissue layer. Results from in silico experiments show the stiffness of cells and the proportions of cell subpopulations affect the nature of deformation in the epithelial layer. In particular, we find that increasing the proportion of stiffer cells in the layer increases the likelihood of crypt fission occurring. This is in agreement with and helps explain recent experimental work

Combined changes in Wnt signalling response and contact inhibition induce altered proliferation in radiation treated intestinal crypts

Curative intervention is possible if colorectal cancer is identified early, underscoring the need to detect the earliest stages of malignant transformation. A candidate biomarker is the expanded proliferative zone observed in crypts before adenoma formation, also found in irradiated crypts. However, the underlying driving mechanism for this is not known. Wnt signaling is a key regulator of proliferation, and elevated Wnt signaling is implicated in cancer. Nonetheless, how cells differentiate Wnt signals of varying strengths is not understood. We use computational modeling to compare alternative hypotheses about how Wnt signaling and contact inhibition affect proliferation. Direct comparison of simulations with published experimental data revealed that the model that best reproduces proliferation patterns in normal crypts stipulates that proliferative fate and cell cycle duration are set by the Wnt stimulus experienced at birth. The model also showed that the broadened proliferation zone induced by tumorigenic radiation can be attributed to cells responding to lower Wnt concentrations and dividing at smaller volumes. Application of the model to data from irradiated crypts after an extended recovery period permitted deductions about the extent of the initial insult. Application of computational modeling to experimental data revealed how mechanisms that control cell dynamics are altered at the earliest stages of carcinogenesis

Role of Heterozygous APC Mutation in Niche Succession and Initiation of Colorectal Cancer – A Computational Study

Mutations in the adenomatous polyposis coli (APC) gene are found in most colorectal cancers. They cause constitutive activation of proliferative pathways when both alleles of the gene are mutated. However studies on individuals with familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP) have shown that a single mutated APC allele can also create changes in the precancerous colon crypt, like increased number of stem cells, increased crypt fission, greater variability of DNA methylation patterns, and higher somatic mutation rates. In this paper, using a computational model of colon crypt dynamics, we evolve and investigate a hypothesis on the effect of heterozygous APC mutation that explains these different observations. Based on previous reports and the results from the computational model we propose the hypothesis that heterozygous APC mutation has the effect of increasing the chances for a stem cell to divide symmetrically, producing two stem cell daughters. We incorporate this hypothesis into the model and perform simulation experiments to investigate the consequences of the hypothesis. Simulations show that this hypothesis links together the changes in FAP crypts observed in previous studies. The simulations also show that an APC+/− stem cell gets selective advantages for dominating the crypt and progressing to cancer. This explains why most colon cancers are initiated by APC mutation. The results could have implications for preventing or retarding the onset of colon cancer in people with inherited or acquired mutation of one APC allele. Experimental validation of the hypothesis as well as investigation into the molecular mechanisms of this effect may therefore be worth undertaking

Wnt Signalling Pathway Parameters for Mammalian Cells

Wnt/β-catenin signalling regulates cell fate, survival, proliferation and differentiation at many stages of mammalian development and pathology. Mutations of two key proteins in the pathway, APC and β-catenin, have been implicated in a range of cancers, including colorectal cancer. Activation of Wnt signalling has been associated with the stabilization and nuclear accumulation of β-catenin and consequential up-regulation of β-catenin/TCF gene transcription. In 2003, Lee et al. constructed a computational model of Wnt signalling supported by experimental data from analysis of time-dependent concentration of Wnt signalling proteins in Xenopus egg extracts. Subsequent studies have used the Xenopus quantitative data to infer Wnt pathway dynamics in other systems. As a basis for understanding Wnt signalling in mammalian cells, a confocal live cell imaging measurement technique is developed to measure the cell and nuclear volumes of MDCK, HEK293T cells and 3 human colorectal cancer cell lines and the concentrations of Wnt signalling proteins β-catenin, Axin, APC, GSK3β and E-cadherin. These parameters provide the basis for formulating Wnt signalling models for kidney/intestinal epithelial mammalian cells. There are significant differences in concentrations of key proteins between Xenopus extracts and mammalian whole cell lysates. Higher concentrations of Axin and lower concentrations of APC are present in mammalian cells. Axin concentrations are greater than APC in kidney epithelial cells, whereas in intestinal epithelial cells the APC concentration is higher than Axin. Computational simulations based on Lee's model, with this new data, suggest a need for a recalibration of the model

Modelling the Spatio-Temporal Cell Dynamics Reveals Novel Insights on Cell Differentiation and Proliferation in the Small Intestinal Crypt

We developed a slow structural relaxation model to describe cellular dynamics in the crypt of the mouse small intestine. Cells are arranged in a three dimensional spiral the size of which dynamically changes according to cell production demands of adjacent villi. Cell differentiation and proliferation is regulated through Wnt and Notch signals, the strength of which depends on the local cell composition. The highest level of Wnt activity is associated with maintaining equipotent stem cells (SC), Paneth cells and common goblet-Paneth cell progenitors (CGPCPs) intermingling at the crypt bottom. Low levels of Wnt signalling area are associated with stem cells giving rise to secretory cells (CGPCPs, enteroendocrine or Tuft cells) and proliferative absorptive progenitors. Deciding between these two fates, secretory and stem/absorptive cells, depends on Notch signalling. Our model predicts that Notch signalling inhibits secretory fate if more than 50% of cells they are in contact with belong to the secretory lineage. CGPCPs under high Wnt signalling will differentiate into Paneth cells while those migrating out from the crypt bottom differentiate into goblet cells. We have assumed that mature Paneth cells migrating upwards undergo anoikis. Structural relaxation explains the localisation of Paneth cells to the crypt bottom in the absence of active forces. The predicted crypt generation time from one SC is 4–5 days with 10–12 days needed to reach a structural steady state. Our predictions are consistent with experimental observations made under altered Wnt and Notch signalling. Mutations affecting stem cells located at the crypt floor have a 50% chance of being propagated throughout the crypt while mutations in cells above are rarely propagated. The predicted recovery time of an injured crypt losing half of its cells is approximately 2 days

Skin Stem Cell Hypotheses and Long Term Clone Survival - Explored Using Agent-based Modelling

Epithelial renewal in skin is achieved by the constant turnover and differentiation of keratinocytes. Three popular hypotheses have been proposed to explain basal keratinocyte regeneration and epidermal homeostasis: 1) asymmetric division (stem-transit amplifying cell); 2) populational asymmetry (progenitor cell with stochastic fate); and 3) populational asymmetry with stem cells. In this study, we investigated lineage dynamics using these hypotheses with a 3D agent-based model of the epidermis. The model simulated the growth and maintenance of the epidermis over three years. The offspring of each proliferative cell was traced. While all lineages were preserved in asymmetric division, the vast majority were lost when assuming populational asymmetry. The third hypothesis provided the most reliable mechanism for self-renewal by preserving genetic heterogeneity in quiescent stem cells, and also inherent mechanisms for skin ageing and the accumulation of genetic mutation