The diffusion of a new service: Combining service consideration and brand choice

We propose an individual-level model of a two-stage service diffusion process. In the first stage, customers decide whether to "consider" joining the service. This (Consideration) stage is modeled by a hazard model. Customers who decide to consider the service move on to the Choice stage, wherein they choose among the service alternatives and an outside No Choice option. This stage is modeled by a conditional Multinomial Logit model. The service provider does not observe the transition in the first stage of potential customers who have yet to choose a brand. Such potential customers may have started to consider joining the service, yet chose the outside alternative in each period thereafter. One of the main contributions of the model is its ability to distinguish between these two non-adopter types. We estimated the model using data on the adoption process of newly introduced service plans offered by a commercial bank. We employed the hierarchical Bayes Monte Carlo Markov Chain procedure to estimate individual as well as population parameters. The empirical results indicate that the model outperforms competing models in breadth of analysis, model fit, and prediction accuracy

A Disease-Mediated Trophic Cascade in the Serengeti and its Implications for Ecosystem C

The removal of rinderpest had cascading effects on herbivore populations, fire, tree density, and even ecosystem carbon in the Serengeti ecosystem of East Africa

Environmental influences of life history strategies in partial anadromous brown trout (<i>Salmo trutta</i>, Salmonidae)

This paper reviews the life history of brown trout and factors influencing decisions to migrate. Decisions that maximize fitness appear dependent on size at age. In partly anadromous populations, individuals that attain maturity at the parr stage typically become freshwater resident. For individual fish, the life history is not genetically fixed and can be modified by the previous growth history and energetic state in early life. This phenotypic plasticity may be influenced by epigenetic modifications of the genome. Thus, factors influencing survival and growth determine life‐history decisions. These are intra‐ and interspecific competition, feeding and shelter opportunities in freshwater and salt water, temperature in alternative habitats and flow conditions in running water. Male trout exhibit alternative mating strategies and can spawn as a subordinate sneaker or a dominant competitor. Females do not exhibit alternative mating behaviour. The relationship between growth, size and reproductive success differs between sexes in that females exhibit a higher tendency to migrate than males. Southern populations are sensitive to global warming. In addition, fisheries, aquaculture with increased spreading of salmon lice, introduction of new species, weirs and river regulation, poor water quality and coastal developments all threaten trout populations. The paper summarizes life‐history data from six populations across Europe and ends by presenting new research questions and directions for future research. freshwater resident, habitat, migration, partial anadromy, Salmonidae, sex ratioacceptedVersio