On Similarities between Inference in Game Theory and Machine Learning

In this paper, we elucidate the equivalence between inference in game theory and machine learning. Our aim in so doing is to establish an equivalent vocabulary between the two domains so as to facilitate developments at the intersection of both fields, and as proof of the usefulness of this approach, we use recent developments in each field to make useful improvements to the other. More specifically, we consider the analogies between smooth best responses in fictitious play and Bayesian inference methods. Initially, we use these insights to develop and demonstrate an improved algorithm for learning in games based on probabilistic moderation. That is, by integrating over the distribution of opponent strategies (a Bayesian approach within machine learning) rather than taking a simple empirical average (the approach used in standard fictitious play) we derive a novel moderated fictitious play algorithm and show that it is more likely than standard fictitious play to converge to a payoff-dominant but risk-dominated Nash equilibrium in a simple coordination game. Furthermore we consider the converse case, and show how insights from game theory can be used to derive two improved mean field variational learning algorithms. We first show that the standard update rule of mean field variational learning is analogous to a Cournot adjustment within game theory. By analogy with fictitious play, we then suggest an improved update rule, and show that this results in fictitious variational play, an improved mean field variational learning algorithm that exhibits better convergence in highly or strongly connected graphical models. Second, we use a recent advance in fictitious play, namely dynamic fictitious play, to derive a derivative action variational learning algorithm, that exhibits superior convergence properties on a canonical machine learning problem (clustering a mixture distribution)

Blow Flies (Calliphoridae) in Alaska

Several blow fly collections were made in the vicinity of Fairbanks between May 28 and June 14, 1948, and one large collection at Anchorage on August 9, 1948. All flies were caught in screen-wire fly traps baited with liver or dead salmon. The material was identified by D. G. Hall, Bureau of Entomology and Plant Quarantine, who also generously provided information concerning the possible importance of the various species of Alaskan blow flie

Anomalous Diffusion at Edge and Core of a Magnetized Cold Plasma

Progress in the theory of anomalous diffusion in weakly turbulent cold magnetized plasmas is explained. Several proposed models advanced in the literature are discussed. Emphasis is put on a new proposed mechanism for anomalous diffusion transport mechanism based on the coupled action of conductive walls (excluding electrodes) bounding the plasma drain current (edge diffusion) together with the magnetic field flux "cutting" the area traced by the charged particles in their orbital motion. The same reasoning is shown to apply to the plasma core anomalous diffusion. The proposed mechanism is expected to be valid in regimes when plasma diffusion scales as Bohm diffusion and at high $B/N$, when collisions are of secondary importance.Comment: 9 pages, 4 figure

Vibrio vulnificus and Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Oysters under Low Tidal Range Conditions: Is Seawater Analysis Useful for Risk Assessment?

Human-pathogenic Vibrio bacteria are acquired by oysters through filtering seawater, however, the relationships between levels of these bacteria in measured in oysters and overlying waters are inconsistent across regions. The reasons for these discrepancies are unclear hindering our ability to assess if -or when- seawater samples can be used as a proxy for oysters to assess risk. We investigated whether concentrations of total and human pathogenic Vibrio vulnificus (vvhA and pilF genes) and Vibrio parahaemolyticus (tlh, tdh and trh genes) measured in seawater reflect concentrations of these bacteria in oysters (Crassostrea virginica) cultured within the US lower Chesapeake Bay region. We measured Vibrio spp. concentrations using an MPN-qPCR approach and analyzed the data using structural equation modeling (SEM). We found seawater concentrations of these bacteria to predictably respond to temperature and salinity over chlorophyll a, pheophytin or turbidity. We also inferred from the SEM results that Vibrio concentrations in seawater strongly predict their respective concentrations in oysters. We hypothesize that such seawater-oyster coupling can be observed in regions of low tidal range. Due to the ease of sampling and processing of seawater samples compared to oyster samples, we suggest that under low tidal range conditions, seawater samples can foster increased spatial and temporal coverage and complement data associated with oyster samples

Constraints on DD Dimensional Warped Spaces

In order to investigate the phenomenological implications of allowing gauge fields to propagate in warped spaces of more than five dimensions, we consider a toy model of a space warped by the presence of a anisotropic bulk cosmological constant. After solving the Einstein equation, three classes of solutions are found, those in which the additional ($D>5$) dimensions are growing, shrinking or remaining constant. It is found that gauge fields propagating in these spaces have a significantly different Kaluza Klein (KK) mass spectrum and couplings from that of the Randall and Sundrum model. This leads to a greatly reduced lower bound on the KK scale, arising from electroweak constraints, for spaces growing towards the IR brane.Comment: 6 pages, 5 figures PASCOS2010 International Symposium proceedin

High Salinity Relay as a Postharvest Processing Strategy To Reduce Vibrio vulnificus Levels in Chesapeake Bay Oysters (Crassostrea virginica)

In 2009 the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced its intention to implement postharvest processing (PHP) methods to eliminate Vibrio vulnificus from oysters intended for the raw, half-shell market that are harvested from the Gulf of Mexico during warmer months. FDA-approved PHP methods can be expensive and may be associated with unfavorable responses from some consumers. A relatively unexplored PHP method that uses relaying to high salinity waters could be an alternative strategy, considering that high salinities appear to negatively affect the survival of V. vulnificus. During relay, however, oysters may be exposed to rapid and large salinity increases that could cause increased mortality. In this study, the effectiveness of high salinity relay to reduce V. vulnificus to (MPN) per g and the impact on oyster mortality were assessed in the lower Chesapeake Bay. Two relay experiments were performed during the summer and fall of 2010. Oysters collected from three grow-out sites, a low salinity site (14 to 15 practical salinity units [psu]) and two moderate salinity sites (22 to 25 psu), were relayed directly to a high salinity site (≥30 psu) on Virginia\u27s Eastern Shore. Oysters were assayed for V. vulnificus and Vibrio parahaemolyticus (another Vibrio species of concern) densities at time 0 prior to relay and after 7 and 14 days of relay, using the FDA MPN enrichment method combined with detection by real-time PCR. After 14 days, both V. vulnificus and V. parahaemolyticus densities were ≤0.8 MPN/g, and decreases of 2 to 3 log in V. vulnificus densities were observed. Oyster mortalities were low (

Non-linear dissolution mechanisms of sodium calcium phosphate glasses as a function of pH in various aqueous media

Phosphate glasses for bioresorbable implants display dissolution rates that vary significantly with composition, however currently their mechanisms of dissolution are not well understood. Based on this systematic study we present new insights into these mechanisms. Two-stage dissolution was observed, with time dependence initially parabolic and later linear, and a two-stage model was developed to describe this behaviour. Dissolution was accelerated by lower Ca concentration in the glass, and lower pH in the dissolution medium. A new dissolution mechanism is proposed, involving an initial stage where diffusion-controlled formation of a conversion layer occurs. Once the conversion layer is stabilised, layer dissolution reactions become rate-limiting. Under this mechanism the transition time is sensitive to the nature of the conversion layer and solution conditions. These results reveal the dependence of P$_{2}$O$_{5}$-CaO-Na$_{2}$O glass dissolution on solution pH, and provide new insight into the dissolution mechanisms, particularly regarding the transition between the two dissolution stages.Comment: 21 pages, 17 figure

Light dark forces at flavor factories

SuperB experiment could represent an ideal environment to test a new U (1) symmetry related to light dark forces candidates. A promising discovery channel is represented by the resonant production of a boson U, followed by its decay into lepton pairs. Beyond approximations adopted in the literature, an exact tree level calculation of the radiative processes $e+ e- \rightarrow \gamma, U \rightarrow \mu^+ \mu^- \gamma, e^+ e^- \gamma$ and corresponding QED backgrounds is performed, including also the most important higher-order corrections. The calculation is implemented in a release of the generator BabaYaga@NLO useful for data analysis and interpretation. The distinct features of U boson production are shown and the statistical significance is analysed