Dynamical system analysis and forecasting of deformation produced by an earthquake fault

We present a method of constructing low-dimensional nonlinear models describing the main dynamical features of a discrete 2D cellular fault zone, with many degrees of freedom, embedded in a 3D elastic solid. A given fault system is characterized by a set of parameters that describe the dynamics, rheology, property disorder, and fault geometry. Depending on the location in the system parameter space we show that the coarse dynamics of the fault can be confined to an attractor whose dimension is significantly smaller than the space in which the dynamics takes place. Our strategy of system reduction is to search for a few coherent structures that dominate the dynamics and to capture the interaction between these coherent structures. The identification of the basic interacting structures is obtained by applying the Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) to the surface deformations fields that accompany strike-slip faulting accumulated over equal time intervals. We use a feed-forward artificial neural network (ANN) architecture for the identification of the system dynamics projected onto the subspace (model space) spanned by the most energetic coherent structures. The ANN is trained using a standard back-propagation algorithm to predict (map) the values of the observed model state at a future time given the observed model state at the present time. This ANN provides an approximate, large scale, dynamical model for the fault.Comment: 30 pages, 12 figure

Status of the Stony Brook Superconducting Heavy-Ion Linac

We describe the present status of the State University of New York at Stony Brook Superconducting Heavy-Ion LINAC (SUNYLAC). The LINAC will extend at very modest cost the capabilities of the existing FN tandem Van de Graaff into the energy range 5-10 MeV/A for light heavy-ions from oxygen to bromine. The active elements are 43 lead-plated copper superconducting resonators of the split-loop type optimized for either velocity ß=v/c=0.055 or ß=0.10. Phase and amplitude of each resonator is independently set through RF-feedback controllers interfaced to an overall computer control system. Full scale construction work began in July, 1979 following the in-beam demonstration of a prototype LINAC module containing 4 low-ß resonators, and the majority of the installation work on the beam transport and refrigeration systems was completed in the summer of 1980. The project is now well into its final assembly and testing phase, with the completion of assembly scheduled in early 1982. We describe details of the design of key elements of the LINAC and the initial operating experience with the injection beam path, helium refrigerator and first production accelerator module. The progress of a continuing program aimed at optimizing crucial aspects of the LINAC is also reviewed

N-WASP Is Required for Structural Integrity of the Blood-Testis Barrier

During spermatogenesis, the blood-testis barrier (BTB) segregates the adluminal (apical) and basal compartments in the seminiferous epithelium, thereby creating a privileged adluminal environment that allows post-meiotic spermatid development to proceed without interference of the host immune system. A key feature of the BTB is its continuous remodeling within the Sertoli cells, the major somatic component of the seminiferous epithelium. This remodeling is necessary to allow the transport of germ cells towards the seminiferous tubule interior, while maintaining intact barrier properties. Here we demonstrate that the actin nucleation promoting factor Neuronal Wiskott-Aldrich Syndrome Protein (N-WASP) provides an essential function necessary for BTB restructuring, and for maintaining spermatogenesis. Our data suggests that the N-WASP-Arp2/3 actin polymerization machinery generates branched-actin arrays at an advanced stage of BTB remodeling. These arrays are proposed to mediate the restructuring process through endocytic recycling of BTB components. Disruption of N-WASP in Sertoli cells results in major structural abnormalities to the BTB, including mis-localization of critical junctional and cytoskeletal elements, and leads to disruption of barrier function. These impairments result in a complete arrest of spermatogenesis, underscoring the critical involvement of the somatic compartment of the seminiferous tubules in germ cell maturation

Dynamics of earthquake nucleation process represented by the Burridge-Knopoff model

Dynamics of earthquake nucleation process is studied on the basis of the one-dimensional Burridge-Knopoff (BK) model obeying the rate- and state-dependent friction (RSF) law. We investigate the properties of the model at each stage of the nucleation process, including the quasi-static initial phase, the unstable acceleration phase and the high-speed rupture phase or a mainshock. Two kinds of nucleation lengths L_sc and L_c are identified and investigated. The nucleation length L_sc and the initial phase exist only for a weak frictional instability regime, while the nucleation length L_c and the acceleration phase exist for both weak and strong instability regimes. Both L_sc and L_c are found to be determined by the model parameters, the frictional weakening parameter and the elastic stiffness parameter, hardly dependent on the size of an ensuing mainshock. The sliding velocity is extremely slow in the initial phase up to L_sc, of order the pulling speed of the plate, while it reaches a detectable level at a certain stage of the acceleration phase. The continuum limits of the results are discussed. The continuum limit of the BK model lies in the weak frictional instability regime so that a mature homogeneous fault under the RSF law always accompanies the quasi-static nucleation process. Duration times of each stage of the nucleation process are examined. The relation to the elastic continuum model and implications to real seismicity are discussed.Comment: Title changed. Changes mainly in abstract and in section 1. To appear in European Physical Journal

Earthquake nucleation in the lower crust by local stress amplification

Deep intracontinental earthquakes are poorly understood, despite their potential to cause significant destruction. Although lower crustal strength is currently a topic of debate, dry lower continental crust may be strong under high-grade conditions. Such strength could enable earthquake slip at high differential stress within a predominantly viscous regime, but requires further documentation in nature. Here, we analyse geological observations of seismic structures in exhumed lower crustal rocks. A granulite facies shear zone network dissects an anorthosite intrusion in Lofoten, northern Norway, and separates relatively undeformed, microcracked blocks of anorthosite. In these blocks, pristine pseudotachylytes decorate fault sets that link adjacent or intersecting shear zones. These fossil seismogenic faults are rarely >15 m in length, yet record single-event displacements of tens of centimetres, a slip/length ratio that implies >1 GPa stress drops. These pseudotachylytes represent direct identification of earthquake nucleation as a transient consequence of ongoing, localised aseismic creep

Aftershock Sequences Modeled with 3-D Stress Heterogeneity and Rate-State Seismicity Equations: Implications for Crustal Stress Estimation

In this paper, we present a model for studying aftershock sequences that integrates Coulomb static stress change analysis, seismicity equations based on rate-state friction nucleation of earthquakes, slip of geometrically complex faults, and fractal-like, spatially heterogeneous models of crustal stress. In addition to modeling instantaneous aftershock seismicity rate patterns with initial clustering on the Coulomb stress increase areas and an approximately 1/t diffusion back to the pre-mainshock background seismicity, the simulations capture previously unmodeled effects. These include production of a significant number of aftershocks in the traditional Coulomb stress shadow zones and temporal changes in aftershock focal mechanism statistics. The occurrence of aftershock stress shadow zones arises from two sources. The first source is spatially heterogeneous initial crustal stress, and the second is slip on geometrically rough faults, which produces localized positive Coulomb stress changes within the traditional stress shadow zones. Temporal changes in simulated aftershock focal mechanisms result in inferred stress rotations that greatly exceed the true stress rotations due to the main shock, even for a moderately strong crust (mean stress 50 MPa) when stress is spatially heterogeneous. This arises from biased sampling of the crustal stress by the synthetic aftershocks due to the non-linear dependence of seismicity rates on stress changes. The model indicates that one cannot use focal mechanism inversion rotations to conclusively demonstrate low crustal strength (≤10 MPa); therefore, studies of crustal strength following a stress perturbation may significantly underestimate the mean crustal stress state for regions with spatially heterogeneous stress

Are Reports of Psychological Stress Higher in Occupational Studies? A Systematic Review across Occupational and Population Based Studies

This study was funded by the UK Ministry of Defence (MoD)