Environmental Prospects for the Next Century: Implications for Long-Term Policy and Research Strategies

This report examines environmental prospects for the twenty-first century, and then suggests some appropriate long-term management strategies and research priorities. A few current global trends (e.g., increasing concentrations of atmospheric trace gases, population, agricultural production) are practically irreversible over the next couple of decades due to inertias in the systems involved. However, there are bound to be nonlinearities, discontinuities, and surprises in the behavior of many environmental and socioeconomic systems. In fact, the main challenge for managers, policy analysts, and politicians is to develop strategies that are robust in response to these surprises, exploiting the opportunities as well as softening the shocks that may arise. The main characteristics of such strategies are that they be adaptive, interdisciplinary, and cross-sectoral. As pointed out by Harvey Brooks (1986), we must avoid partial solutions that may be optimal for a particular sector or decade, but which are far from optimal for the biosphere as a whole over the long term

Primordialists and Constructionists: a typology of theories of religion

This article adopts categories from nationalism theory to classify theories of religion. Primordialist explanations are grounded in evolutionary psychology and emphasize the innate human demand for religion. Primordialists predict that religion does not decline in the modern era but will endure in perpetuity. Constructionist theories argue that religious demand is a human construct. Modernity initially energizes religion, but subsequently undermines it. Unpacking these ideal types is necessary in order to describe actual theorists of religion. Three distinctions within primordialism and constructionism are relevant. Namely those distinguishing: a) materialist from symbolist forms of constructionism; b) theories of origins from those pertaining to the reproduction of religion; and c) within reproduction, between theories of religious persistence and secularization. This typology helps to make sense of theories of religion by classifying them on the basis of their causal mechanisms, chronology and effects. In so doing, it opens up new sightlines for theory and research

Modulating bone marrow hematopoietic lineage potential to prevent bone metastasis in breast cancer

The presence of disseminated tumor cells in breast cancer patient bone marrow aspirates predicts decreased recurrence-free survival. Although it is appreciated that physiological, pathological, and therapeutic conditions impact hematopoiesis, it remains unclear if targeting hematopoiesis presents opportunities for limiting bone metastasis. Using pre-clinical breast cancer models, we discovered that marrow from mice treated with the bisphosphonate zoledronic acid (ZA) are metastasis-suppressive. Specifically, ZA modulated hematopoietic myeloid/osteoclast progenitor cell (M/OCP) lineage potential to activate metastasis-suppressive activity. Granulocyte-colony stimulating factor (G-CSF) promoted ZA resistance by redirecting M/OCP differentiation. We identified M/OCP and bone marrow transcriptional programs associated with metastasis suppression and ZA resistance. Analysis of patient blood samples taken at random revealed that women with high plasma G-CSF experienced significantly worse outcome with adjuvant ZA than those with lower G-CSF levels. Our findings support discovery of therapeutic strategies to direct M/OCP lineage potential and biomarkers that stratify responses in patients at risk of recurrence

Wholesale pricing in a small open economy

This paper addresses the empirical analysis of wholesale profit margins using data of the Dutch wholesale sector, 1986. At the heart of the analysis is the typical nature of wholesale production: wholesalers do not produce a tangible product, but offer a service capacity. This has an immediate impact on the identification, interprelation and measurement of determinants of profit variations. A model is set up to explain variations in wholesale profit margins, which is inspired by two widely applied approaches to industry pricing: the behavioural mark-up model and the marginalist price-cost model

Statistical Mechanics of Horizontal Gene Transfer in Evolutionary Ecology

The biological world, especially its majority microbial component, is strongly interacting and may be dominated by collective effects. In this review, we provide a brief introduction for statistical physicists of the way in which living cells communicate genetically through transferred genes, as well as the ways in which they can reorganize their genomes in response to environmental pressure. We discuss how genome evolution can be thought of as related to the physical phenomenon of annealing, and describe the sense in which genomes can be said to exhibit an analogue of information entropy. As a direct application of these ideas, we analyze the variation with ocean depth of transposons in marine microbial genomes, predicting trends that are consistent with recent observations using metagenomic surveys.Comment: Accepted by Journal of Statistical Physic

The global atmospheric electrical circuit and climate

Evidence is emerging for physical links among clouds, global temperatures, the global atmospheric electrical circuit and cosmic ray ionisation. The global circuit extends throughout the atmosphere from the planetary surface to the lower layers of the ionosphere. Cosmic rays are the principal source of atmospheric ions away from the continental boundary layer: the ions formed permit a vertical conduction current to flow in the fair weather part of the global circuit. Through the (inverse) solar modulation of cosmic rays, the resulting columnar ionisation changes may allow the global circuit to convey a solar influence to meteorological phenomena of the lower atmosphere. Electrical effects on non-thunderstorm clouds have been proposed to occur via the ion-assisted formation of ultra-fine aerosol, which can grow to sizes able to act as cloud condensation nuclei, or through the increased ice nucleation capability of charged aerosols. Even small atmospheric electrical modulations on the aerosol size distribution can affect cloud properties and modify the radiative balance of the atmosphere, through changes communicated globally by the atmospheric electrical circuit. Despite a long history of work in related areas of geophysics, the direct and inverse relationships between the global circuit and global climate remain largely quantitatively unexplored. From reviewing atmospheric electrical measurements made over two centuries and possible paleoclimate proxies, global atmospheric electrical circuit variability should be expected on many timescale

Diving into the vertical dimension of elasmobranch movement ecology

Knowledge of the three-dimensional movement patterns of elasmobranchs is vital to understand their ecological roles and exposure to anthropogenic pressures. To date, comparative studies among species at global scales have mostly focused on horizontal movements. Our study addresses the knowledge gap of vertical movements by compiling the first global synthesis of vertical habitat use by elasmobranchs from data obtained by deployment of 989 biotelemetry tags on 38 elasmobranch species. Elasmobranchs displayed high intra- and interspecific variability in vertical movement patterns. Substantial vertical overlap was observed for many epipelagic elasmobranchs, indicating an increased likelihood to display spatial overlap, biologically interact, and share similar risk to anthropogenic threats that vary on a vertical gradient. We highlight the critical next steps toward incorporating vertical movement into global management and monitoring strategies for elasmobranchs, emphasizing the need to address geographic and taxonomic biases in deployments and to concurrently consider both horizontal and vertical movements

Aspects of microbial communities in peatland carbon cycling under changing climate and land use pressures

This is the final version. Available on open access from the Finnish Peatland Society via the DOI in this record. Globally, major efforts are being made to restore peatlands to maximise their resilience to anthropogenic climate change, which puts continuous pressure on peatland ecosystems and modifies the geography of the environmental envelope that underpins peatland functioning. A probable effect of climate change is reduction in the waterlogged conditions that are key to peatland formation and continued accumulation of carbon (C) in peat. C sequestration in peatlands arises from a delicate imbalance between primary production and decomposition, and microbial processes are potentially pivotal in regulating feedbacks between environmental change and the peatland C cycle. Increased soil temperature, caused by climate warming or disturbance of the natural vegetation cover and drainage, may result in reductions of long-term C storage via changes in microbial community composition and metabolic rates. Moreover, changes in water table depth alter the redox state and hence have broad consequences for microbial functions, including effects on fungal and bacterial communities especially methanogens and methanotrophs. This article is a perspective review of the effects of climate change and ecosystem restoration on peatland microbial communities and the implications for C sequestration and climate regulation. It is authored by peatland scientists, microbial ecologists, land managers and non-governmental organisations who were attendees at a series of three workshops held at The University of Manchester (UK) in 2019–2020. Our review suggests that the increase in methane flux sometimes observed when water tables are restored is predicated on the availability of labile carbon from vegetation and the absence of alternative terminal electron acceptors. Peatland microbial communities respond relatively rapidly to shifts in vegetation induced by climate change and subsequent changes in the quantity and quality of below-ground C substrate inputs. Other consequences of climate change that affect peatland microbial communities and C cycling include alterations in snow cover and permafrost thaw. In the face of rapid climate change, restoration of a resilient microbiome is essential to sustaining the climate regulation functions of peatland systems. Technological developments enabling faster characterisation of microbial communities and functions support progress towards this goal, which will require a strongly interdisciplinary approach.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC