Seasonal temperature regulates network connectivity of salmon louse

Chronically high infestation of salmon louse (Lepeophtheirus salmonis) questions the sustainability of the Norwegian Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) aquaculture industry. The confinement of millions of hosts, within hundreds of farms with overlapping larval dispersal kernels create the structure for extremely persistent parasite meta-populations. However, the processes regulating the temporal variation in cross-contamination of pelagic salmon louse stages among farms (i.e. connectivity), a vital process driving louse population dynamics, are not well described. Here, we employ a data driven biophysical dispersal model that reproduces three-and-a-half years of production histories of 132 salmon farms in western Norway and quantifies the connectivity of infective pelagic lice stages among the farms with the ocean currents. We show that although the complex geography of western Norwegian fjords governs the long-term topology of the connectivity network, there was a strong seasonal component to network fragmentation. The main de-structuring agent was the delayed infectivity of the pelagic lice stages at cooler temperatures increasing dispersal distances, enhanced by occasional large scale wind forcing events. Coordinated fallowing strategies and de-lousing treatments only played a marginal role in network fragmentation, suggesting that novel lice restraining strategies that consider the environmentally sensitive transport distances must be developed to successfully break up the connectivity network.publishedVersio

Cod at drift in the North Sea

There has been a large-scale geographical re-distribution of the North Sea cod stock over the past century, and recent surveys indicate a north-eastern modal distribution. Here we assess the consequences of the contemporary distribution of North Sea cod (Gadus morhua) spawning biomass to inter-ocean recruitment potential. By simulations of drifting cod eggs and larvae spawned in the northern North Sea over 16 spawning seasons (in the period 1995–2016), we show that a large portion of the North Sea produced pelagic juveniles most likely settle along the Norwegian Sea shelf. For example during the early 2000s when the North Sea cod spawning biomass was at its lowest, 20% to 27% of larvae produced in the northern North Sea most likely settled along the Norwegian Sea shelf, while as few as 8% and 10% were retained within the North Sea in some years. We hypothesise the spillover of North Sea cod into nursery habitat along the Norwegian north-western coast to be beneficial to the stock, as larvae would encounter far higher abundances of their favoured prey, the copepod Calanus finmarchicus. Looking back at a century of overfishing, warming, and variable nursery conditions for cod in the North Sea, getting entrained in the Norwegian coastal current seems like a viable “back-door exit” strategy, allowing the north-eastern spawning cod to thrive even in seemingly adverse climatic periods.publishedVersio

Key processes regulating the early life history of Barents Sea polar cod

The polar cod (Boreogadus saida) in the Barents Sea is one of the main stocks of this species in the Arctic, reaching a total biomass of almost 2 million tonnes in some years. It has been fluctuating considerably in abundance, and in recent years, it has been at a low level. Only small catches have been taken from the stock over the last four decades, and consequently, the observed variation in abundance must be caused by natural (environmental and/or biological) changes in the ecosystem. Sea temperatures have been rising in the Barents Sea in recent years, possibly causing changes to the living conditions of this true Arctic stock. Consequently, there is a need for investigating how the observed changes might affect polar cod in this area. One important aspect of the environmental impact on the stock is possible effect on the recruitment, which has been varying considerably from year to year. In this modelling study, we thus recreate and analyse the environmental and developmental histories of the observed 0-group individuals in the Barents Sea (young of the year), with emphasis on the importance of ice cover, ice breakup time, maximum temperature, and spawning stock biomass. Our simulations indicate that the environmental conditions experienced by individuals successfully “recruited” to the 0-group are characterized by high ice concentration well into summer, and low temperatures throughout the pelagic juvenile phase, and any perturbations from the Arctic ocean climate typically found in the northern and eastern Barents Sea appears to be detrimental to stock recruitment. In light of the projected warming of the Barents Sea in the next decades and the potential reduction in ice cover, this will entail, the mechanisms investigated herein might lead to future marginalization of polar cod in the Barents Sea.publishedVersio

Polar cod in jeopardy under the retreating Arctic sea ice

The Arctic amplification of global warming is causing the Arctic-Atlantic ice edge to retreat at unprecedented rates. Here we show how variability and change in sea ice cover in the Barents Sea, the largest shelf sea of the Arctic, affect the population dynamics of a keystone species of the ice-associated food web, the polar cod (Boreogadus saida). The data-driven biophysical model of polar cod early life stages assembled here predicts a strong mechanistic link between survival and variation in ice cover and temperature, suggesting imminent recruitment collapse should the observed ice-reduction and heating continue. Backtracking of drifting eggs and larvae from observations also demonstrates a northward retreat of one of two clearly defined spawning assemblages, possibly in response to warming. With annual to decadal ice-predictions under development the mechanistic physical-biological links presented here represent a powerful tool for making long-term predictions for the propagation of polar cod stocks.publishedVersio

Trans-polar drift-pathways of riverine European microplastic

High concentrations of microplastic particles are reported across the Arctic Ocean–yet no meaningful point sources, suspension timelines, or accumulation areas have been identified. Here we use Lagrangian particle advection simulations to model the transport of buoyant microplastic from northern European rivers to the high Arctic, and compare model results to the flux of sampled synthetic particles across the main entrance to the Arctic Ocean. We report widespread dispersal along the Eurasian continental shelf, across the North Pole, and back into the Nordic Seas; with accumulation zones over the Nansen basin, the Laptev Sea, and the ocean gyres of the Nordic Seas. The equal distribution of sampled synthetic particles across water masses covering a wide time frame of anthropogenic influence suggests a system in full saturation rather than pronounced injection from European sources, through a complex circulation scheme connecting the entire Arctic Mediterranean. This circulation of microplastic through Arctic ecosystems may have large consequences to natural ecosystem health, highlighting an ever-increasing need for better waste management

Cod at drift in the Nordic seas

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Local recruitment of Atlantic cod and putative source spawning areas in a coastal seascape

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Modelled dispersal of snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) larvae and potential settlement areas in the western Barents Sea

Since the mid-1990s, a snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) population has established in the eastern Barents Sea. Spawning females and newly hatched larvae are now also found in the central Barents Sea, warranting speculations on a further westward colonization by pelagic larvae. Here, we model the potential for larval dispersal and settlement into uncolonized areas in the western Barents Sea. We used a biophysical model of ocean currents and hydrography, coupled with a Lagrangian dispersal algorithm and larval survival functions as response to temperature. The model predicts limited dispersal from the central Barents Sea to western areas, primarily due to a mismatch between prevailing temperature regimes and temperature tolerances for the different larval stages. In addition, there was limited westward transport of water masses with temperatures that would allow completion of the pelagic larval development. We speculate that for larvae to successfully supply benthic recruits to the remaining uncolonized areas in the western Barents Sea, adult crabs would first need to establish new spawning aggregations, for example along the western slopes of the Barents Sea shelf. Immediate implications are limited potential for expanding the fishery to the western areas of the Barents Sea.publishedVersio

Conservation, spillover and gene flow within a network of northern European marine protected areas

To ensure that marine protected areas (MPAs) benefit conservation and fisheries, the effectiveness of MPA designs has to be evaluated in field studies. Using an interdisciplinary approach, we empirically assessed the design of a network of northern MPAs where fishing for European lobster (Homarus gammarus) is prohibited. First, we demonstrate a high level of residency and survival (50%) for almost a year (363 days) within MPAs, despite small MPA sizes (0.5-1 km2). Second, we demonstrate limited export (4.7%) of lobsters tagged within MPAs (N = 1810) to neighbouring fished areas, over a median distance of 1.6 km out to maximum 21 km away from MPA centres. In comparison, median movement distance of lobsters recaptured within MPAs was 164 m, and recapture rate was high (40%). Third, we demonstrate a high level of gene flow within the study region, with an estimated FST of less than 0.0001 over a ≈ 400 km coastline. Thus, the restricted movement of older life stages, combined with a high level of gene flow suggests that connectivity is primarily driven by larval drift. Larval export from the MPAs can most likely affect areas far beyond their borders. Our findings are of high importance for the design of MPA networks for sedentary species with pelagic early life stages

Potential sources of marine plastic from survey beaches in the Arctic and Northeast Atlantic

Plastic litter is accumulating on pristine northern European beaches, including the European Arctic, and questions remain about the exact origins and sources. Here we investigate plausible fishery and consumer-related sources of beach littering, using a combination of information from expert stakeholder discussions, litter observations and a quantitative tool - a drift model - for forecasting and backtracking likely pathways of pollution. The numerical experiments were co-designed together with practice experts. The drift model itself was forced by operational ocean current, wave and weather forecasts. The model results were compared to a database of marine litter on beaches, collected every year according to the standardized monitoring program of the Oslo/Paris Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment of the North-East Atlantic (OSPAR). By comparing the heterogeneous beach observations to the model simulations, we are able to highlight probable sources. Two types of plastic are considered in the simulations: floating plastic litter and submerged, buoyant microplastics. We find that the model simulations are plausible in terms of the potential sources and the observed plastic litter. Our analysis results in identifiable sources of plastic waste found on each beach, providing a basis for stakeholder actions.publishedVersio