President George W. Bushs Legacy on the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process

Following the events of September 11, President George W. Bush shifted his approach in support of further involvement in Middle Eastern affairs. He delivered, on June 24, 2002, a speech in support of the creation of a peaceful and democratic Palestinian state alongside Israel. Bush specifically asked the Palestinians to reform the Palestinian Authority, dismantle their militant groups and elect a new leader. Bush also backed the Quartets Road Map formula (sponsored by the U.N., the E.U., and Russia) for resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Although Bushs vision and the Road Map plan marked a new shift in U.S. policy on the Palestinian issue, both failed to exercise leverage upon Israel to withdraw from the Palestinian territories. They failed to provide details concerning the final status issues, including the future of Jerusalem, the refugees, Jewish settlements, statehood and borders, which served to satisfy Israels objection to packaged deals that may entail pressures for withdrawal from the Palestinian territories. While exploring factors, events and forces that may have motivated Bushs plans for the region, this article will underline the main themes of his two states idea and those of the Road Maps formula. It also examines signs of inconsistencies and fluctuations in Bushs policies towards the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, along with comparing Bushs rhetoric on the Palestinian state to the actual realities on the ground. This article seeks a historically grounded critical understanding of U.S. policy towards the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in general and the Bush Administrations conception of the two states solution in particular. It also reflects slightly on signs of continuities and/or changes experienced during Barak Obamas presidency with regard to the Middle East region

Islamic banking, credit, and economic growth: Some empirical evidence

This paper examines the effects of Islamic banking on the causal linkages between credit and gross domestic product (GDP) by comparing two sets of seven emerging countries, the first without Islamic banks and the second with a dual banking system including both Islamic and conventional banks. Unlike previous studies, it checks the robustness of the results by applying both time series and panel methods; moreover, it tests for both long‐ and short‐run causality. In brief, the findings highlight significant differences between the two sets of countries reflecting the distinctive features of Islamic banks. Specifically, the time series analysis provides evidence of long‐run causality running from credit to GDP in countries with Islamic banks. This is confirmed by the panel causality tests, although in this case short‐run causality in countries without Islamic banks is also found

The Peace Process and the Palestinian Political Landscape

This article examines forces and events that have influenced the Palestinian political landscape over the past two decades, focusing, among other things, on the failure of the peace process and its effect on the changing relations among political elites and trends in the Palestinian occupied territories. While reflecting on the prospects for peacemaking between Israel and the Palestinians, from the start of the 1987 Intifada until the eruption of the second Intifada in 2000, this article will highlight factors that have contributed to the collapse of the Oslo Accords, the Camp David II Summit and the Road Map formula. The obstacles that have generally caused the failure of these peace plans include the continuation of Israels occupation of the Palestinian territories, the U.S.s credibility problem in the region and the growing corruption attributed to the Palestinian Authority

Democracy Promotion in Arab Politics

The first part of this essay explores features and factors pertaining to democratic ideas, ideals and procedures in general and the limits of their applicability in the Arab world in particular. The second part assesses the persistence of the U.S. credibility problem in the Arab world, which became more evident after the George W. Bush Administration began advancing its democracy promotion plans for the "Greater Middle East" region. Although it remained largely symbolic, the Administrations focus on democratization has, directly or indirectly, played a contributory role in strengthening the status of autocratic Arab regimes that support U.S. policy and interests, while hindering the stability of regimes that remain opposed to the U.S. and its allies in the region. In general, the article aims at examining factors and events that have contributed to the deleterious effects of U.S. policy on democratization in the Arab world. More specifically, it argues that the Bush Administrations rhetoric on democracy promotion, which strengthened the status of pro-U.S. regimes in the Arab world, has also contributed to empowering Islamists' popular appeal along with hampering the U.S.'s credibility, public image and prestige across the region

The Impact of Geopolitical Risk on Sustainable Markets: A Quantile-Time-Frequency Analysis

We examine the impact of Geopolitical Risk (GPR) on green, clean, and socially responsible markets by employing the newly proposed Wavelet Quantile Correlation, Cross-quantilogram and Causality-in-quantiles. Unlike earlier studies, we incorporate the GPR index to encompass the risk linked to conflict, acts of terrorism, and political tensions. In brief, our findings show that GPR emerges as a significant factor influencing market behavior, with distinct patterns observed across different time scales and trading horizons. Our results are beneficial for investors and portfolio managers to adopt more rational investment strategies and for policymakers to make appropriate policy arrangements. 1 1 Corresponding author: Ahmed H. Elsayed ([email protected]

The impact of central bank digital currency news on the stock and cryptocurrency markets: Evidence from the TVP-VAR model

This study employs a non-linear framework to investigate the impacts of central bank digital currency (CBDC) news on the financial and cryptocurrency markets. The time-varying vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model developed by Primiceri (2005) is estimated based on weekly data from the first week of January 2015 to the last week of December 2021. The vector of endogenous variables in the VAR estimation contains the Central Bank Digital Currency uncertainty index (CBDCU), cryptocurrency policy uncertainty index, S&P 500 index, VIX, and Bitcoin price. The TVP-VAR model’s time-varying responses demonstrated that the reactions of the cryptocurrency market to central bank digital currency announcements vary remarkably over time. The impacts of the CBDC shocks on the financial market have been increasingly visible during the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the time-varying forecast error decompositions, CBDCU and VIX shocks have accounted for most of the variance in cryptocurrency uncertainty and Bitcoin return shocks, notably during the COVID-19 period

Assessment of Groundwater Pollution with Heavy Metals in North West Bank/Palestine by ICP-MS

Groundwater of North West Bank in Palestine was assessed for pollution with trace metals by ICP/MS. The samples were analysed for their pH, electrical conductivity, total dissolved solids, and different trace metals content. The pH, electrical conductivity, and total dissolved solids of all water samples were found to be within the US Environmental protection Agency limits. Results showed that the concentration of nine trace metals (Cr, Mn, Ni, Cu, Zn, Mo, Pb, Cd, and Al) is within the WHO limits in drinking water (50, 500, 20, 2000, 3000, 70, 10, 3, and 200 ug/L, respectively), however six metals of them (Cr, Mn, Ni, Cu, Mo, and Al) were detected in 100% of the samples, while Pb, Cd, and Zn were detected in 80%, 60%, and 20% of the samples, respectively. On the other hand, Tl which is a very toxic heavy metal with allowed WHO limits of 0.01 - 1 ug/L is detected in 100% of the water samples analysed with a range of 0.02 - 0.12 ug/L. It indicates that such concentration levels of Tl would be harmful to the human being drinking the water. In general, 82% of all samples analysed contained one or more of the 12 metals studied each in varying concentration. Results of this study suggest a possible risk to the people of the study area given the toxicity of heavy metals, and the fact that for many people in the study area, groundwater is a main source of their water supply.The authors thank the German Research Foundation (Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft), DFG for their financial support through TRION project

Oil prices and sectoral stock returns in the BRICS-T countries: A time-varying approach

This paper investigates how exchange rates and oil prices have affected sectoral stock returns in the BRICS-T countries over the period from 2 January 2001 to 22 March 2021. Following the estimation of a benchmark linear model, Bai and Perron (2003) tests are carried out in each case to identify structural breaks, and then a state-space model with time-varying parameters is also estimated. The analysis shows that oil prices have a significant, positive effect on the energy sectors of all BRICS-T countries except India; a negative one on the industrial sectors of all countries except Turkey; a negative one on the financial sectors of Brazil, Russia, India, and South Africa; a negative one on the transportation sectors of India and Turkey and a positive one on that of Russia; finally, the most significant effect is on the chemicals sector, though it varies across countries. The subsamples and time-varying estimates indicate that exchange rate returns have a larger influence than oil price returns. Because energy-dependent sectors are vulnerable to global volatility, appropriate energy regulations should be implemented to reduce risk

Infected pancreatic necrosis: outcomes and clinical predictors of mortality. A post hoc analysis of the MANCTRA-1 international study

: The identification of high-risk patients in the early stages of infected pancreatic necrosis (IPN) is critical, because it could help the clinicians to adopt more effective management strategies. We conducted a post hoc analysis of the MANCTRA-1 international study to assess the association between clinical risk factors and mortality among adult patients with IPN. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify prognostic factors of mortality. We identified 247 consecutive patients with IPN hospitalised between January 2019 and December 2020. History of uncontrolled arterial hypertension (p = 0.032; 95% CI 1.135-15.882; aOR 4.245), qSOFA (p = 0.005; 95% CI 1.359-5.879; aOR 2.828), renal failure (p = 0.022; 95% CI 1.138-5.442; aOR 2.489), and haemodynamic failure (p = 0.018; 95% CI 1.184-5.978; aOR 2.661), were identified as independent predictors of mortality in IPN patients. Cholangitis (p = 0.003; 95% CI 1.598-9.930; aOR 3.983), abdominal compartment syndrome (p = 0.032; 95% CI 1.090-6.967; aOR 2.735), and gastrointestinal/intra-abdominal bleeding (p = 0.009; 95% CI 1.286-5.712; aOR 2.710) were independently associated with the risk of mortality. Upfront open surgical necrosectomy was strongly associated with the risk of mortality (p < 0.001; 95% CI 1.912-7.442; aOR 3.772), whereas endoscopic drainage of pancreatic necrosis (p = 0.018; 95% CI 0.138-0.834; aOR 0.339) and enteral nutrition (p = 0.003; 95% CI 0.143-0.716; aOR 0.320) were found as protective factors. Organ failure, acute cholangitis, and upfront open surgical necrosectomy were the most significant predictors of mortality. Our study confirmed that, even in a subgroup of particularly ill patients such as those with IPN, upfront open surgery should be avoided as much as possible. Study protocol registered in ClinicalTrials.Gov (I.D. Number NCT04747990)

Impact of opioid-free analgesia on pain severity and patient satisfaction after discharge from surgery: multispecialty, prospective cohort study in 25 countries

Background: Balancing opioid stewardship and the need for adequate analgesia following discharge after surgery is challenging. This study aimed to compare the outcomes for patients discharged with opioid versus opioid-free analgesia after common surgical procedures.Methods: This international, multicentre, prospective cohort study collected data from patients undergoing common acute and elective general surgical, urological, gynaecological, and orthopaedic procedures. The primary outcomes were patient-reported time in severe pain measured on a numerical analogue scale from 0 to 100% and patient-reported satisfaction with pain relief during the first week following discharge. Data were collected by in-hospital chart review and patient telephone interview 1 week after discharge.Results: The study recruited 4273 patients from 144 centres in 25 countries; 1311 patients (30.7%) were prescribed opioid analgesia at discharge. Patients reported being in severe pain for 10 (i.q.r. 1-30)% of the first week after discharge and rated satisfaction with analgesia as 90 (i.q.r. 80-100) of 100. After adjustment for confounders, opioid analgesia on discharge was independently associated with increased pain severity (risk ratio 1.52, 95% c.i. 1.31 to 1.76; P < 0.001) and re-presentation to healthcare providers owing to side-effects of medication (OR 2.38, 95% c.i. 1.36 to 4.17; P = 0.004), but not with satisfaction with analgesia (beta coefficient 0.92, 95% c.i. -1.52 to 3.36; P = 0.468) compared with opioid-free analgesia. Although opioid prescribing varied greatly between high-income and low- and middle-income countries, patient-reported outcomes did not.Conclusion: Opioid analgesia prescription on surgical discharge is associated with a higher risk of re-presentation owing to side-effects of medication and increased patient-reported pain, but not with changes in patient-reported satisfaction. Opioid-free discharge analgesia should be adopted routinely