Re-thinking the “ecological envelope” of Eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua): conditions for productivity, reproduction, and feeding over time

Hypoxia is presently seen as the principal driver behind the decline of the former dominating Eastern Baltic cod stock (EBC; Gadus morhua). It has been proposed that both worsening conditions for reproduction and lower individual growth, condition, and survival are linked to hypoxia. Here, we elucidate the ecological envelope of EBC in terms of salinity stratification, oxygen content, and benthic animal biomasses, and how it has affected EBC productivity over time. The spawning conditions started deteriorating in the Gotland Deep in the 1950s due to oxygen depletion. In contrast, in the Bornholm Basin, hydrographic conditions have remained unchanged over the last 60 years. Indeed, the current extent of both well-oxygenated areas and the frequency of hypoxia events do not differ substantially from periods with high EBC productivity in the 1970s–1980s. Furthermore, oxygenated and therefore potentially suitable feeding areas are abundant in all parts of the Baltic Sea, and our novel analysis provides no evidence of a reduction in benthic food sources for EBC over the last 30 years. We find that while reproduction failure is intricately linked to hydrographic dynamics, a relationship between the spread of hypoxia and the decline in EBC productivity during the last decades cannot be substantiated.Peer reviewe

A Century of Legacy Phosphorus Dynamics in a Large Drainage Basin

There is growing evidence that the release of phosphorus (P) from legacy stores can frustrate efforts to reduce P loading to surface water from sources such as agriculture and human sewage. Less is known, however, about the magnitude and residence times of these legacy pools. Here we constructed a budget of net anthropogenic P inputs to the Baltic Sea drainage basin and developed a three-parameter, two-box model to describe the movement of anthropogenic P though temporary (mobile) and long-term (stable) storage pools. Phosphorus entered the sea as direct coastal effluent discharge and via rapid transport and slow, legacy pathways. The model reproduced past waterborne P loads and suggested an similar to 30-year residence time in the mobile pool. Between 1900 and 2013, 17 and 27 Mt P has accumulated in the mobile and stable pools, respectively. Phosphorus inputs to the sea have halved since the 1980s due to improvements in coastal sewage treatment and reductions associated with the rapid transport pathway. After decades of accumulation, the system appears to have shifted to a depletion phase; absent further reductions in net anthropogenic P input, future waterborne loads could decrease. Presently, losses from the mobile pool contribute nearly half of P loads, suggesting that it will be difficult to achieve substantial near-term reductions. However, there is still potential to make progress toward eutrophication management goals by addressing rapid transport pathways, such as overland flow, as well as mobile stores, such as cropland with large soil-P reserves.Peer reviewe

Letter to editor regarding Kotta et al. 2020 : Cleaning up seas using blue growth initiatives: Mussel farming for eutrophication control in the Baltic Sea

Non peer reviewe

Nitrogen flows from European watersheds to coastal marine waters

Nitrogen flows from European watersheds to coastal marine waters Executive summary Nature of the problem • Most regional watersheds in Europe constitute managed human territories importing large amounts of new reactive nitrogen. • As a consequence, groundwater, surface freshwater and coastal seawater are undergoing severe nitrogen contamination and/or eutrophication problems. Approaches • A comprehensive evaluation of net anthropogenic inputs of reactive nitrogen (NANI) through atmospheric deposition, crop N fixation,fertiliser use and import of food and feed has been carried out for all European watersheds. A database on N, P and Si fluxes delivered at the basin outlets has been assembled. • A number of modelling approaches based on either statistical regression analysis or mechanistic description of the processes involved in nitrogen transfer and transformations have been developed for relating N inputs to watersheds to outputs into coastal marine ecosystems. Key findings/state of knowledge • Throughout Europe, NANI represents 3700 kgN/km2/yr (range, 0–8400 depending on the watershed), i.e. five times the background rate of natural N2 fixation. • A mean of approximately 78% of NANI does not reach the basin outlet, but instead is stored (in soils, sediments or ground water) or eliminated to the atmosphere as reactive N forms or as N2. • N delivery to the European marine coastal zone totals 810 kgN/km2/yr (range, 200–4000 depending on the watershed), about four times the natural background. In areas of limited availability of silica, these inputs cause harmful algal blooms. Major uncertainties/challenges • The exact dimension of anthropogenic N inputs to watersheds is still imperfectly known and requires pursuing monitoring programmes and data integration at the international level. • The exact nature of ‘retention’ processes, which potentially represent a major management lever for reducing N contamination of water resources, is still poorly understood. • Coastal marine eutrophication depends to a large degree on local morphological and hydrographic conditions as well as on estuarine processes, which are also imperfectly known. Recommendations • Better control and management of the nitrogen cascade at the watershed scale is required to reduce N contamination of ground- and surface water, as well as coastal eutrophication. • In spite of the potential of these management measures, there is no choice at the European scale but to reduce the primary inputs of reactive nitrogen to watersheds, through changes in agriculture, human diet and other N flows related to human activity

Understanding Environmental Changes in Temperate Coastal Seas : Linking Models of Benthic Fauna to Carbon and Nutrient Fluxes

Coastal seas are highly productive systems, providing an array of ecosystem services to humankind, such as processing of nutrient effluents from land and climate regulation. However, coastal ecosystems are threatened by human-induced pressures such as climate change and eutrophication. In the coastal zone, the fluxes and transformations of nutrients and carbon sustaining coastal ecosystem functions and services are strongly regulated by benthic biological and chemical processes. Thus, to understand and quantify how coastal ecosystems respond to environmental change, mechanistic modeling of benthic biogeochemical processes is required. Here, we discuss the present model capabilities to quantitatively describe how benthic fauna drives nutrient and carbon processing in the coastal zone. There are a multitude of modeling approaches of different complexity, but a thorough mechanistic description of benthic-pelagic processes is still hampered by a fundamental lack of scientific understanding of the diverse interactions between the physical, chemical and biological processes that drive biogeochemical fluxes in the coastal zone. Especially shallow systems with long water residence times are sensitive to the activities of benthic organisms. Hence, including and improving the description of benthic biomass and metabolism in sediment diagenetic as well as ecosystem models for such systems is essential to increase our understanding of their response to environmental changes and the role of coastal sediments in nutrient and carbon cycling. Major challenges and research priorities are (1) to couple the dynamics of zoobenthic biomass and metabolism to sediment reactive-transport in models, (2) to test and validate model formulations against real-world data to better incorporate the context-dependency of processes in heterogeneous coastal areas in models and (3) to capture the role of stochastic events.Peer reviewe

High spatiotemporal variability of methane concentrations challenges estimates of emissions across vegetated coastal ecosystems

Coastal methane (CH4) emissions dominate the global ocean CH4 budget and can offset the "blue carbon" storage capacity of vegetated coastal ecosystems. However, current estimates lack systematic, high-resolution, and long-term data from these intrinsically heterogeneous environments, making coastal budgets sensitive to statistical assumptions and uncertainties. Using continuous CH4 concentrations, delta C-13-CH4 values, and CH4 sea-air fluxes across four seasons in three globally pervasive coastal habitats, we show that the CH4 distribution is spatially patchy over meter-scales and highly variable in time. Areas with mixed vegetation, macroalgae, and their surrounding sediments exhibited a spatiotemporal variability of surface water CH4 concentrations ranging two orders of magnitude (i.e., 6-460 nM CH4) with habitat-specific seasonal and diurnal patterns. We observed (1) delta C-13-CH signatures that revealed habitat-specific CH4 production and consumption pathways, (2) daily peak concentration events that could change >100% within hours across all habitats, and (3) a high thermal sensitivity of the CH4 distribution signified by apparent activation energies of similar to 1 eV that drove seasonal changes. Bootstrapping simulations show that scaling the CH4 distribution from few samples involves large errors, and that similar to 50 concentration samples per day are needed to resolve the scale and drivers of the natural variability and improve the certainty of flux calculations by up to 70%. Finally, we identify northern temperate coastal habitats with mixed vegetation and macroalgae as understudied but seasonally relevant atmospheric CH4 sources (i.e., releasing >= 100 mu mol CH4 m(-2) day(-1) in summer). Due to the large spatial and temporal heterogeneity of coastal environments, high-resolution measurements will improve the reliability of CH4 estimates and confine the habitat-specific contribution to regional and global CH4 budgets.Peer reviewe

Opportunities to reduce nutrient inputs to the Baltic Sea by improving manure use efficiency in agriculture

While progress has been made in reducing external nutrient inputs to the Baltic Sea, further actions are needed to meet the goals of the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP), especially for the Baltic Proper, Gulf of Finland, and Gulf of Riga sub-basins. We used the net anthropogenic nitrogen and phosphorus inputs (NANI and NAPI, respectively) nutrient accounting approach to construct three scenarios of reduced NANI-NAPI. Reductions assumed that manure nutrients were redistributed from areas with intense animal production to areas that focus on crop production and would otherwise import synthetic and mineral fertilizers. We also used the Simple as Necessary Baltic Long Term Large Scale (SANBALTS) model to compare eutrophication conditions for the scenarios to current and BSAP-target conditions. The scenarios suggest that reducing NANI-NAPI by redistributing manure nutrients, together with improving agronomic practices, could meet 54-82% of the N reductions targets (28-43 kt N reduction) and 38-64% P reduction targets (4-6.6 kt P reduction), depending on scenario. SANBALTS output showed that even partial fulfillment of nutrient reduction targets could have ameliorating effects on eutrophication conditions. Meeting BSAP targets will require addressing additional sources, such as sewage. A common approach to apportioning sources to external nutrients loads could enable further assessment of the feasibility of eutrophication management targets.Peer reviewe

Reference state, structure, regime shifts, and regulatory drivers in a coastal sea over the last century : The Central Baltic Sea case

The occurrence of regime shifts in marine ecosystems has important implications for environmental legislation that requires setting reference levels and targets of quantitative restoration outcomes. The Baltic Sea ecosystem has undergone large changes in the 20(th) century related to anthropogenic pressures and climate variability, which have caused ecosystem reorganization. Here, we compiled historical information and identified relationships in our dataset using multivariate statistics and modeling across 31 biotic and abiotic variables from 1925 to 2005 in the Central Baltic Sea. We identified a series of ecosystem regime shifts in the 1930s, 1970s, and at the end of the 1980s/beginning of the 1990s. In the long term, the Central Baltic Sea showed a regime shift from a benthic to pelagic-dominated state. Historically, benthic components played a significant role in trophic transfer, while in the more recent productive system pelagic-benthic coupling was weak and pelagic components dominated. Our analysis shows that for the entire time period, productivity, climate, and hydrography mainly affected the functioning of the food web, whereas fishing became important more recently. Eutrophication had far-reaching direct and indirect impacts from a long-term perspective and changed not only the trophic state of the system but also affected higher trophic levels. Our study also suggests a switch in regulatory drivers from salinity to oxygen. The "reference ecosystem" identified in our analysis may guide the establishment of an ecosystem state baseline and threshold values for ecosystem state indicators of the Central Baltic Sea.Peer reviewe

Methane emissions offset atmospheric carbon dioxide uptake in coastal macroalgae, mixed vegetation and sediment ecosystems

Publisher Copyright: © 2023, The Author(s).Coastal ecosystems can efficiently remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere and are thus promoted for nature-based climate change mitigation. Natural methane (CH4) emissions from these ecosystems may counterbalance atmospheric CO2 uptake. Still, knowledge of mechanisms sustaining such CH4 emissions and their contribution to net radiative forcing remains scarce for globally prevalent macroalgae, mixed vegetation, and surrounding depositional sediment habitats. Here we show that these habitats emit CH4 in the range of 0.1 – 2.9 mg CH4 m−2 d−1 to the atmosphere, revealing in situ CH4 emissions from macroalgae that were sustained by divergent methanogenic archaea in anoxic microsites. Over an annual cycle, CO2-equivalent CH4 emissions offset 28 and 35% of the carbon sink capacity attributed to atmospheric CO2 uptake in the macroalgae and mixed vegetation habitats, respectively, and augment net CO2 release of unvegetated sediments by 57%. Accounting for CH4 alongside CO2 sea-air fluxes and identifying the mechanisms controlling these emissions is crucial to constrain the potential of coastal ecosystems as net atmospheric carbon sinks and develop informed climate mitigation strategies.Peer reviewe