Design Characteristics Influence Performance of Clinical Prediction Rules in Validation: A Meta-Epidemiological Study

BACKGROUND: Many new clinical prediction rules are derived and validated. But the design and reporting quality of clinical prediction research has been less than optimal. We aimed to assess whether design characteristics of validation studies were associated with the overestimation of clinical prediction rules' performance. We also aimed to evaluate whether validation studies clearly reported important methodological characteristics. METHODS: Electronic databases were searched for systematic reviews of clinical prediction rule studies published between 2006 and 2010. Data were extracted from the eligible validation studies included in the systematic reviews. A meta-analytic meta-epidemiological approach was used to assess the influence of design characteristics on predictive performance. From each validation study, it was assessed whether 7 design and 7 reporting characteristics were properly described. RESULTS: A total of 287 validation studies of clinical prediction rule were collected from 15 systematic reviews (31 meta-analyses). Validation studies using case-control design produced a summary diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) 2.2 times (95% CI: 1.2-4.3) larger than validation studies using cohort design and unclear design. When differential verification was used, the summary DOR was overestimated by twofold (95% CI: 1.2 -3.1) compared to complete, partial and unclear verification. The summary RDOR of validation studies with inadequate sample size was 1.9 (95% CI: 1.2 -3.1) compared to studies with adequate sample size. Study site, reliability, and clinical prediction rule was adequately described in 10.1%, 9.4%, and 7.0% of validation studies respectively. CONCLUSION: Validation studies with design shortcomings may overestimate the performance of clinical prediction rules. The quality of reporting among studies validating clinical prediction rules needs to be improved

The creatine kinase system and pleiotropic effects of creatine

The pleiotropic effects of creatine (Cr) are based mostly on the functions of the enzyme creatine kinase (CK) and its high-energy product phosphocreatine (PCr). Multidisciplinary studies have established molecular, cellular, organ and somatic functions of the CK/PCr system, in particular for cells and tissues with high and intermittent energy fluctuations. These studies include tissue-specific expression and subcellular localization of CK isoforms, high-resolution molecular structures and structure–function relationships, transgenic CK abrogation and reverse genetic approaches. Three energy-related physiological principles emerge, namely that the CK/PCr systems functions as (a) an immediately available temporal energy buffer, (b) a spatial energy buffer or intracellular energy transport system (the CK/PCr energy shuttle or circuit) and (c) a metabolic regulator. The CK/PCr energy shuttle connects sites of ATP production (glycolysis and mitochondrial oxidative phosphorylation) with subcellular sites of ATP utilization (ATPases). Thus, diffusion limitations of ADP and ATP are overcome by PCr/Cr shuttling, as most clearly seen in polar cells such as spermatozoa, retina photoreceptor cells and sensory hair bundles of the inner ear. The CK/PCr system relies on the close exchange of substrates and products between CK isoforms and ATP-generating or -consuming processes. Mitochondrial CK in the mitochondrial outer compartment, for example, is tightly coupled to ATP export via adenine nucleotide transporter or carrier (ANT) and thus ATP-synthesis and respiratory chain activity, releasing PCr into the cytosol. This coupling also reduces formation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and inhibits mitochondrial permeability transition, an early event in apoptosis. Cr itself may also act as a direct and/or indirect anti-oxidant, while PCr can interact with and protect cellular membranes. Collectively, these factors may well explain the beneficial effects of Cr supplementation. The stimulating effects of Cr for muscle and bone growth and maintenance, and especially in neuroprotection, are now recognized and the first clinical studies are underway. Novel socio-economically relevant applications of Cr supplementation are emerging, e.g. for senior people, intensive care units and dialysis patients, who are notoriously Cr-depleted. Also, Cr will likely be beneficial for the healthy development of premature infants, who after separation from the placenta depend on external Cr. Cr supplementation of pregnant and lactating women, as well as of babies and infants are likely to be of benefit for child development. Last but not least, Cr harbours a global ecological potential as an additive for animal feed, replacing meat- and fish meal for animal (poultry and swine) and fish aqua farming. This may help to alleviate human starvation and at the same time prevent over-fishing of oceans

Direct costs related to rheumatoid arthritis: the patient perspective

Objective: To determine rheumatoid arthritis related out of pocket expenditure (OOPE) in Germany and to disaggregate the total OOPE into contributing cost domains. Methods: Data for the cost analysis were drawn from a multicentre randomised controlled prospective trial to assess the effectiveness of clinical quality management in patients with rheumatoid arthritis. Both payer sources and patient cost questionnaires were used to generate health care utilisation data. All cost domains of a recently published matrix were reviewed and potential sources of OOPE were determined. Health care utilisation data were developed throughout 2001. Co-payment regulations as per January 2004 were applied in order to indicate the most recent level of OOPE in Germany. Data were analysed in both physical and monetary units using descriptive statistics. Results: In all, 136 patients with rheumatoid arthritis were included. Mean total OOPE per patient and year was €417.20 (SEM 38.8, median 271.2). OOPE accounted for 15.3% of the total direct costs of rheumatoid arthritis. Total OOPE were further subdivided into cost domains: "non-physician service utilisation"' (€194.40 per patient and year; SEM 24.2), "medication" (€99.00; 6.1), "transportation" (€56.20; 17.4), "visits to physicians" (€38.40; 0.6), "hospital facilities" (€24.00; 5.6), and "devices and aids" (€5.10; 0.8). Conclusions: Rheumatoid arthritis is associated with substantial OOPE, imposing a considerable economic burden for patients. OOPE contribute significantly to the total health care expenditure in rheumatoid arthritis. The patient perspective has to be taken into account when calculating the overall direct costs of rheumatoid arthritis from a societal point of view