Development of an international standard set of outcome measures for patients with atrial fibrillation: a report of the International Consortium for Health Outcomes Measurement (ICHOM) atrial fibrillation working group.

AIMS: As health systems around the world increasingly look to measure and improve the value of care that they provide to patients, being able to measure the outcomes that matter most to patients is vital. To support the shift towards value-based health care in atrial fibrillation (AF), the International Consortium for Health Outcomes Measurement (ICHOM) assembled an international Working Group (WG) of 30 volunteers, including health professionals and patient representatives to develop a standardized minimum set of outcomes for benchmarking care delivery in clinical settings. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using an online-modified Delphi process, outcomes important to patients and health professionals were selected and categorized into (i) long-term consequences of disease outcomes, (ii) complications of treatment outcomes, and (iii) patient-reported outcomes. The WG identified demographic and clinical variables for use as case-mix risk adjusters. These included baseline demographics, comorbidities, cognitive function, date of diagnosis, disease duration, medications prescribed and AF procedures, as well as smoking, body mass index (BMI), alcohol intake, and physical activity. Where appropriate, and for ease of implementation, standardization of outcomes and case-mix variables was achieved using ICD codes. The standard set underwent an open review process in which over 80% of patients surveyed agreed with the outcomes captured by the standard set. CONCLUSION: Implementation of these consensus recommendations could help institutions to monitor, compare and improve the quality and delivery of chronic AF care. Their consistent definition and collection, using ICD codes where applicable, could also broaden the implementation of more patient-centric clinical outcomes research in AF

Patterns of oral anticoagulant use and outcomes in Asian patients with atrial fibrillation: a post-hoc analysis from the GLORIA-AF Registry

Background: Previous studies suggested potential ethnic differences in the management and outcomes of atrial fibrillation (AF). We aim to analyse oral anticoagulant (OAC) prescription, discontinuation, and risk of adverse outcomes in Asian patients with AF, using data from a global prospective cohort study. Methods: From the GLORIA-AF Registry Phase II–III (November 2011–December 2014 for Phase II, and January 2014–December 2016 for Phase III), we analysed patients according to their self-reported ethnicity (Asian vs. non-Asian), as well as according to Asian subgroups (Chinese, Japanese, Korean and other Asian). Logistic regression was used to analyse OAC prescription, while the risk of OAC discontinuation and adverse outcomes were analysed through Cox-regression model. Our primary outcome was the composite of all-cause death and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). The original studies were registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01468701, NCT01671007, and NCT01937377. Findings: 34,421 patients were included (70.0 ± 10.5 years, 45.1% females, 6900 (20.0%) Asian: 3829 (55.5%) Chinese, 814 (11.8%) Japanese, 1964 (28.5%) Korean and 293 (4.2%) other Asian). Most of the Asian patients were recruited in Asia (n = 6701, 97.1%), while non-Asian patients were mainly recruited in Europe (n = 15,449, 56.1%) and North America (n = 8378, 30.4%). Compared to non-Asian individuals, prescription of OAC and non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulant (NOAC) was lower in Asian patients (Odds Ratio [OR] and 95% Confidence Intervals (CI): 0.23 [0.22–0.25] and 0.66 [0.61–0.71], respectively), but higher in the Japanese subgroup. Asian ethnicity was also associated with higher risk of OAC discontinuation (Hazard Ratio [HR] and [95% CI]: 1.79 [1.67–1.92]), and lower risk of the primary composite outcome (HR [95% CI]: 0.86 [0.76–0.96]). Among the exploratory secondary outcomes, Asian ethnicity was associated with higher risks of thromboembolism and intracranial haemorrhage, and lower risk of major bleeding. Interpretation: Our results showed that Asian patients with AF showed suboptimal thromboembolic risk management and a specific risk profile of adverse outcomes; these differences may also reflect differences in country-specific factors. Ensuring integrated and appropriate treatment of these patients is crucial to improve their prognosis. Funding: The GLORIA-AF Registry was funded by Boehringer Ingelheim GmbH

Climate change and freshwater zooplankton: what does it boil down to?

Recently, major advances in the climate–zooplankton interface have been made some of which appeared to receive much attention in a broader audience of ecologists as well. In contrast to the marine realm, however, we still lack a more holistic summary of recent knowledge in freshwater. We discuss climate change-related variation in physical and biological attributes of lakes and running waters, high-order ecological functions, and subsequent alteration in zooplankton abundance, phenology, distribution, body size, community structure, life history parameters, and behavior by focusing on community level responses. The adequacy of large-scale climatic indices in ecology has received considerable support and provided a framework for the interpretation of community and species level responses in freshwater zooplankton. Modeling perspectives deserve particular consideration, since this promising stream of ecology is of particular applicability in climate change research owing to the inherently predictive nature of this field. In the future, ecologists should expand their research on species beyond daphnids, should address questions as to how different intrinsic and extrinsic drivers interact, should move beyond correlative approaches toward more mechanistic explanations, and last but not least, should facilitate transfer of biological data both across space and time

Residual risk prediction in anticoagulated patients with atrial fibrillation using machine learning: A report from the GLORIA‐AF registry phase II/III

Background Although oral anticoagulation decreases the risk of thromboembolism in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), a residual risk of thrombotic events still exists. This study aimed to construct machine learning (ML) models to predict the residual risk in these patients. Methods Patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular AF were collected from the Global Registry on Long-Term Oral Anti-Thrombotic Treatment in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation (GLORIA-AF) registry. To predict the residual risk of the composite outcome of thrombotic events (defined as ischemic stroke, systemic embolism, transient ischemic attack and myocardial infarction), we constructed four prediction models using the logistic regression (LR), random forest, light gradient boosting machine and extreme gradient boosting machine ML algorithms. Performance was mainly evaluated by area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC), g-means and F1 scores. Feature importance was evaluated by SHapley Additive exPlanations. Results 15,829 AF patients (70.33 ± 9.94 years old, 55% male) taking oral anticoagulation were included in our study, and 641 (4.0%) had residual risk, sustaining thrombotic events. In the test set, LR had the best performance with higher AUC trend of 0.712. RF has highest g-means of 0.295 and F1 score of 0.249. This was superior when compared with the CHA2DS2-VA score (AUC 0.698) and 2MACE score (AUC 0.696). Age, history of TE or MI, OAC discontinuation, eGFR and sex were identified as the top five factors associated with residual risk. Conclusion ML algorithms can improve the prediction of residual risk of anticoagulated AF patients compared to clinical risk factor-based scores

European Project on Osteoarthritis (EPOSA): methodological challenges in harmonization of existing data from five European population-based cohorts on aging

BackgroundThe European Project on OSteoArthritis (EPOSA), here presented for the first time, is a collaborative study involving five European cohort studies on aging. This project focuses on the personal and societal burden and its determinants of osteoarthritis (OA). The aim of the current report is to describe the purpose of the project, the post harmonization of the cross-national data and methodological challenges related to the harmonization process MethodsThe study includes data from cohort studies in five European countries (Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain and the United Kingdom) on older community-dwelling persons aged ? 59 years. The study design and main characteristics of the five cohort studies are described. Post harmonization algorithms are developed by finding a "common denominator" to merge the datasets and weights are calculated to adjust for differences in age and sex distribution across the datasets. ResultsA harmonized database was developed, consisting of merged data from all participating countries. In total, 10107 persons are included in the harmonized dataset with a mean age of 72.8 years (SD 6.1). The female/male ratio is 53.3/46.7%. Some variables were difficult to harmonize due to differences in wording and categories, differences in classifications and absence of data in some countries. The post harmonization algorithms are described in detail in harmonization guidelines attached to this paper. ConclusionsThere was little evidence of agreement on the use of several core data collection instruments, in particular on the measurement of OA. The heterogeneity of OA definitions hampers comparing prevalence rates of OA, but other research questions can be investigated using high quality harmonized data. By publishing the harmonization guidelines, insight is given into (the interpretation of) all post harmonized data of the EPOSA study. <br/

Decrease in shunt volume in patients with cryptogenic stroke and patent foramen ovale

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In patients with patent foramen ovale (PFO) there is evidence supporting the hypothesis of a change in right-to-left shunt (RLS) over time. Proven, this could have implications for the care of patients with PFO and a history of stroke. The following study addressed this hypothesis in a cohort of patients with stroke and PFO.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The RLS volume assessed during hospitalisation for stroke (index event/T0) was compared with the RLS volume on follow-up (T1) (median time between T0 and T1 was 10 months). In 102 patients with a history of stroke and PFO the RLS volume was re-assessed on follow-up using contrast-enhanced transcranial Doppler/duplex (ce-TCD) ultrasound. A change in RLS volume was defined as a difference of ≥20 microembolic signals (MES) or no evidence of RLS during ce-TCD ultrasound on follow-up.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>There was evidence of a marked reduction in RLS volume in 31/102 patients; in 14/31 patients a PFO was no longer detectable. An index event classified as cryptogenic stroke (P < 0.001; OD = 39.2, 95% confidence interval 6.0 to 258.2) and the time interval to the follow-up visit (P = 0.03) were independently associated with a change in RLS volume over time.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>RLS volume across a PFO decreases over time, especially in patients with cryptogenic stroke. These may determine the development of new strategies for the management in the secondary stroke prevention.</p