Electricity futures prices: time varying sensitivity to fundamentals

This paper provides insight in the time-varying relation between electricity futures prices and fundamentals in the form of prices of contracts for fossil fuels. As supply curves are not constant and different producers have different marginal costs of production, we argue that the relation between electricity futures prices and futures prices of underlying fundamentals such as natural gas, coal and emission rights are not constant and vary over time. We test this view by applying a model that linearly relates electricity futures prices to the marginal costs of production and calculate the log-likelihood of different time-varying and constant specifications of the coefficients. To do so, we formulate the model in state-space form and apply the Kalman Filter to observe the dynamics of the coefficients. We analyse historical prices of futures contracts with different delivery periods (calendar year and seasons, peak and off-peak) from Germany and the U.K. The results indicate that analysts should choose a time-varying specification to relate the futures price of power to prices of underlying fundamentals

Live bedside music in daily clinical practice of a surgical hospital ward among older patients:A controlled study design of an innovative practice

OBJECTIVE: There is an increasing interest in the role of the arts, particularly music, in healthcare. Music seems an attractive non-pharmacological intervention for older patients to improve postoperative outcomes. Although live music elicits more meaningful responses from an audience than recorded music, the use of live music is still rare on hospital wards. In view of the positive effects of recorded music on older surgical patients, we designed, in collaboration with a conservatoire, an innovative practice named Meaningful Music in Health Care (MiMiC). The aim is to determine whether live bedside music implements into daily practice and allows improves patient outcomes. METHOD: This manuscript provides an overview of a trial evaluating if live bedside music can improve postoperative outcomes in older patients. The MiMiC initiative is a non randomized controlled trial study among older surgical patients on three hospital wards. Live bedside music is performed by professional musicians, once a day for six or seven consecutive days. The primary outcome is experienced pain; secondary outcomes are anxiety, relaxation and physical parameters (heart rate, heart rate variability, blood pressure, respiratory rate and oxygenation). Measurements of these variables are collected before the intervention, 30 min afterwards and again after three hours. Daily evaluations determine whether this innovative practice can be implemented in daily practice. CONCLUSION: This manuscript describes a new practice, live bedside music by professional musicians, on surgical hospital wards aiming to improve patient outcomes. It offers a new field of interprofessional collaboration for the benefit of patients. Further research must be conducted focussing on patient outcomes, including cost-effectiveness and the experiences of patients and healthcare professionals

Cooperative virulence can emerge via horizontal gene transfer but is stabilized by transmission

Intestinal inflammation fuels Salmonella Typhimurium ( S .Tm) transmission despite a fitness cost associated with the expression of virulence. Cheater mutants can emerge that profit from inflammation without enduring this cost. Intestinal virulence in S .Tm is therefore a cooperative trait, and its evolution a conundrum. Horizontal gene transfer (HGT) of cooperative alleles may facilitate the emergence of cooperative virulence, despite its instability. To test this hypothesis, we cloned hilD , coding for a master regulator of virulence, into a conjugative plasmid that is highly transferrable during intestinal colonization. We demonstrate that virulence can emerge by hilD transfer between avirulent strains in vivo . However, this was indeed unstable and hilD mutant cheaters arose within a few days. The timing of cheater emergence depended on the cost. We further show that stabilization of cooperative virulence in S .Tm is dependent on transmission dynamics, strengthened by population bottlenecks, leading cheaters to extinction and allowing cooperators to thrive

Alendronate or alfacalcidol in glucocorticoid-induced osteoporosis

BACKGROUND: Treatment with glucocorticoids is associated with bone loss starting soon after therapy is initiated and an increased risk of fracture. METHODS: We performed a randomized, double-placebo, double-blind clinical trial of 18 months' duration among patients with a rheumatic disease who were starting glucocorticoids at a daily dose that was equivalent to at least 7.5 mg of prednisone. A total of 201 patients were assigned to receive either alendronate (10 mg) and a placebo capsule of alfacalcidol daily or alfacalcidol (1 mu g) and a placebo tablet of alendronate daily. The primary outcome was the change in bone mineral density of the lumbar spine in 18 months; the secondary outcome was the incidence of morphometric vertebral deformities. RESULTS: A total of 100 patients received alendronate, and 101 received alfacalcidol; 163 patients completed the study. The bone mineral density of the lumbar spine increased by 2.1 percent in the alendronate group (95 percent confidence interval, 1.1 to 3.1 percent) and decreased by 1.9 percent in the alfacalcidol group (95 percent confidence interval, -3.1 to -0.7 percent). At 18 months, the mean difference of change in bone mineral density between the two groups was 4.0 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 2.4 to 5.5 percent). Three patients in the alendronate group had a new vertebral deformity, as compared with eight patients in the alfacalcidol group (of whom three had symptomatic vertebral fractures) (hazard ratio, 0.4; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.1 to 1.4). CONCLUSIONS: During this 18-month trial in patients with rheumatic diseases, alendronate was more effective in the prevention of glucocorticoid-induced bone loss than was alfacalcidol

Plasmid- and strain-specific factors drive variation in ESBL-plasmid spread in vitro and in vivo

Horizontal gene transfer, mediated by conjugative plasmids, is a major driver of the global rise of antibiotic resistance. However, the relative contributions of factors that underlie the spread of plasmids and their roles in conjugation in vivo are unclear. To address this, we investigated the spread of clinical Extended Spectrum Beta-Lactamase (ESBL)-producing plasmids in the absence of antibiotics in vitro and in the mouse intestine. We hypothesised that plasmid properties would be the primary determinants of plasmid spread and that bacterial strain identity would also contribute. We found clinical Escherichia coli strains natively associated with ESBL-plasmids conjugated to three distinct E. coli strains and one Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium strain. Final transconjugant frequencies varied across plasmid, donor, and recipient combinations, with qualitative consistency when comparing transfer in vitro and in vivo in mice. In both environments, transconjugant frequencies for these natural strains and plasmids covaried with the presence/absence of transfer genes on ESBL-plasmids and were affected by plasmid incompatibility. By moving ESBL-plasmids out of their native hosts, we showed that donor and recipient strains also modulated transconjugant frequencies. This suggests that plasmid spread in the complex gut environment of animals and humans can be predicted based on in vitro testing and genetic data

Fluid management and vasopressor use during colorectal surgery: the search for the optimal balance

BackgroundAlthough it is known that excessive intraoperative fluid and vasopressor agents are detrimental for anastomotic healing, optimal anesthesiology protocols for colorectal surgery are currently lacking.ObjectiveTo scrutinize the current hemodynamic practice and vasopressor use and their relation to colorectal anastomotic leakage.DesignA secondary analysis of a previously published prospective observational study: the LekCheck study.Study settingAdult patients undergoing a colorectal resection with the creation of a primary anastomosis.Outcome measuresColorectal anastomotic leakage (CAL) within 30 days postoperatively, hospital length of stay and 30-day mortality.ResultsOf the 1548 patients, 579 (37%) received vasopressor agents during surgery. Of these, 201 were treated with solely noradrenaline, 349 were treated with phenylephrine, and 29 received ephedrine. CAL rate significantly differed between the patients receiving vasopressor agents during surgery compared to patients without (11.8% vs 6.3%, p < 0.001). CAL was significantly higher in the group receiving phenylephrine compared to noradrenaline (14.3% vs 6%, p < 0.001). Vasopressor agents were used more often in patients treated with Goal Directed Therapy (47% vs 34.6%, p < 0.001). There was a higher mortality rate in patients with vasopressors compared to the group without (2.8% vs 0.4%, p = 0.01, OR 3.8). Mortality was higher in the noradrenaline group compared to the phenylephrine and those without vasopressors (5% vs. 0.4% and 1.7%, respectively, p < 0.001). In multivariable analysis, patients with intraoperative vasopressor agents had an increased risk to develop CAL (OR 2.1, CI 1.3-3.2, p = 0.001).ConclusionThe present study contributes to the evidence that intraoperative use of vasopressor agents is associated with a higher rate of CAL. This study helps to create awareness on the (necessity to) use of vasopressor agents in colorectal surgery patients in striving for successful anastomotic wound healing. Future research will be required to balance vasopressor agent dosage in view of colorectal anastomotic leakage

Pathogen invasion-dependent tissue reservoirs and plasmid-encoded antibiotic degradation boost plasmid spread in the gut

Many plasmids encode antibiotic resistance genes. Through conjugation, plasmids can be rapidly disseminated. Previous work identified gut luminal donor/recipient blooms and tissue-lodged plasmid-bearing persister cells of the enteric pathogen; Salmonella enterica; serovar Typhimurium (; S; .Tm) that survive antibiotic therapy in host tissues, as factors promoting plasmid dissemination among Enterobacteriaceae. However, the buildup of tissue reservoirs and their contribution to plasmid spread await experimental demonstration. Here, we asked if re-seeding-plasmid acquisition-invasion cycles by; S; .Tm could serve to diversify tissue-lodged plasmid reservoirs, and thereby promote plasmid spread. Starting with intraperitoneal mouse infections, we demonstrate that; S; .Tm cells re-seeding the gut lumen initiate clonal expansion. Extended spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL) plasmid-encoded gut luminal antibiotic degradation by donors can foster recipient survival under beta-lactam antibiotic treatment, enhancing transconjugant formation upon re-seeding.; S; .Tm transconjugants can subsequently re-enter host tissues introducing the new plasmid into the tissue-lodged reservoir. Population dynamics analyses pinpoint recipient migration into the gut lumen as rate-limiting for plasmid transfer dynamics in our model. Priority effects may be a limiting factor for reservoir formation in host tissues. Overall, our proof-of-principle data indicates that luminal antibiotic degradation and shuttling between the gut lumen and tissue-resident reservoirs can promote the accumulation and spread of plasmids within a host over time

Electricity Futures Prices

This paper provides insight in the time-varying relation between electricity futures prices and fundamentals in the form of prices of contracts for fossil fuels. As supply curves are not constant and different producers have different marginal costs of production, we argue that the relation between electricity futures prices and futures prices of underlying fundamentals such as natural gas, coal and emission rights are not constant and vary over time. We test this view by applying a model that linearly relates electricity futures prices to the marginal costs of production and calculate the log-likelihood of different time-varying and constant specifications of the coefficients. To do so, we formulate the model in state-space form and apply the Kalman Filter to observe the dynamics of the coefficients. We analyse historical prices of futures contracts with different delivery periods (calendar year and seasons, peak and off-peak) from Germany and the U.K. The results indicate that analysts should choose a time-varying specification to relate the futures price of power to prices of underlying fundamentals

Sensitivity of phytoplankton, zooplankton and macroinvertebrates to hydrogen peroxide treatments of cyanobacterial blooms

Addition of hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) is a promising method to acutely suppress cyanobacterial blooms in lakes. However, a reliable H2O2 risk assessment to identify potential effects on non-target species is currently hampered by a lack of appropriate ecotoxicity data. The aim of the present study was therefore to quantify the responses of a wide diversity of freshwater phytoplankton, zooplankton and macroinvertebrates to H2O2 treatments of cyanobacterial blooms. To this end, we applied a multifaceted approach. First, we investigated the 24-h toxicity of H2O2 to three cyanobacteria (Planktothrix agardhii, Microcystis aeruginosa, Anabaena sp.) and 23 non-target species (six green algae, eight zooplankton and nine macroinvertebrate taxa), using EC50 values based on photosynthetic yield for phytoplankton and LC50 values based on mortality for the other organisms. The most sensitive species included all three cyanobacterial taxa, but also the rotifer Brachionus calyciflores and the cladocerans Ceriodaphnia dubia and Daphnia pulex. Next, the EC50 and LC50 values obtained from the laboratory toxicity tests were used to construct a species sensitivity distribution (SSD) for H2O2. Finally, the species predicted to be at risk by the SSD were compared with the responses of phytoplankton, zooplankton and macroinvertebrates to two whole-lake treatments with H2O2. The predictions of the laboratory-based SSD matched well with the responses of the different taxa to H2O2 in the lake. The first lake treatment, with a relatively low H2O2 concentration and short residence time, successfully suppressed cyanobacteria without major effects on non-target species. The second lake treatment had a higher H2O2 concentration with a longer residence time, which resulted in partial suppression of cyanobacteria, but also in a major collapse of rotifers and decreased abundance of small cladocerans. Our results thus revealed a trade-off between the successful suppression of cyanobacteria at the expense of adverse effects on part of the zooplankton community. This delicate balance strongly depends on the applied H2O2 dosage and may affect the decision whether to treat a lake or not.</p