Model Building in Forensic Psychiatry: A Machine Learning Approach to Screening Offender Patients with SSD

Today’s extensive availability of medical data enables the development of predictive models, but this requires suitable statistical methods, such as machine learning (ML). Especially in forensic psychiatry, a complex and cost-intensive field with risk assessments and predictions of treatment outcomes as central tasks, there is a need for such predictive tools, for example, to anticipate complex treatment courses and to be able to offer appropriate therapy on an individualized basis. This study aimed to develop a first basic model for the anticipation of adverse treatment courses based on prior compulsory admission and/or conviction as simple and easily objectifiable parameters in offender patients with a schizophrenia spectrum disorder (SSD). With a balanced accuracy of 67% and an AUC of 0.72, gradient boosting proved to be the optimal ML algorithm. Antisocial behavior, physical violence against staff, rule breaking, hyperactivity, delusions of grandeur, fewer feelings of guilt, the need for compulsory isolation, cannabis abuse/dependence, a higher dose of antipsychotics (measured by the olanzapine half-life) and an unfavorable legal prognosis emerged as the ten most influential variables out of a dataset with 209 parameters. Our findings could demonstrate an example of the use of ML in the development of an easy-to-use predictive model based on few objectifiable factors. Keywords: model building; machine learning; artificial intelligence; schizophrenia; forensic psychiatry; adverse treatment cours

Disseminating legislative debates: How legislators communicate the parliamentary agenda

While a rich literature addresses legislative agenda-setting in multiparty democracies, relatively little is known how members of parliament disseminate the legislative agenda beyond the parliamentary floor. Drawing on content analyses of 110 legislative debates and 5,847 press releases from Austrian MPs (2013–2017), we test whether legislators are more likely to send press releases on issues that are salient to their party (party agenda-setting) and to other parties in the party system (systemic salience). MPs should also communicate more on issues that fall within their area of expertise (issue specialization) and when they have given a speech on that issue during the legislative debate (intra-party delegation). While we find empirical support for all these expectations, communication of the legislative agenda largely rests on each parties’ issue specialists and their speakers in plenary debates. Importantly, there is no significant discrepancy overall between the actual parliamentary issue agenda and the agenda communicated by party MPs.Austrian Science Fundhttps://doi.org/10.13039/501100002428servicestelle für mobilitätsprogramme des österreichischen bundesministeriums für bildung, wissenschaft und forschung, kulturkontakt austriahttps://doi.org/10.13039/100015057Peer Reviewe

IAP Studie 2017 : der Mensch in der Arbeitswelt 4.0

Digitalisierung prägt die «neue» Arbeitswelt. Neue Technologien, agile Arbeitsformen, mobil-flexible Arbeitsplätze und andere Entwicklungen beeinflussen, wie und wo wir in Zukunft arbeiten. Das Internet verändert unsere Vorstellungen von Arbeit und auch die Rolle des Menschen in der Wirtschaft. Die vorliegende IAP Studie fokussiert auf den Menschen in der Arbeitswelt 4.0. Das IAP Institut für Angewandte Psychologie hat mehr als 600 Schweizer Fach- und Führungskräfte befragt, wie sie die Veränderungen in der neuen Arbeitswelt erleben und inwieweit Digitalisierung in ihren Arbeitsalltag vorgedrungen ist. Seit 2011 bezeichnet «4.0» als Kurzformel die Umwälzungen der digitalen Transformation (Kagermann & Lukas, 2011). Arbeitswelt 4.0 steht für das Arbeiten während der laufenden vierten industriellen Revolution. Diese beinhaltet, dass über das mobile Internet und das «Internet der Dinge» ein neuer Teil unserer Lebens- und Arbeitswelten datentechnisch erfasst, vernetzt, ausgewertet und optimiert werden kann. Es entstehen neue Arbeitsprozesse, Geschäftsmodelle, Organisationsstrukturen, neue Berufsbilder und neue Anforderungen an Mitarbeitende. Doch wie gelingt in Organisationen eine erfolgreiche digitale Transformation? Es liegen bereits zahlreiche Trend-Reports zum Thema Digitalisierung vor. Consulting-Firmen geben Ratschläge für neue Business-Modelle, Wirtschaftswachstum und Effizienzsteigerung, die dank digitaler Transformation, künstlicher Intelligenz und Big Data möglich werden sollen. Bisherige Studien zu digitaler Transformation setzen in der Regel auf technologische Investitionen zur Innovationsförderung und wagen grosse Zukunftsprognosen. Medien verkünden potenziell grosse Verluste von Arbeitsplätzen durch den digitalen Wandel. Die IAP Studie legt auf der Basis von Zahlen eine differenzierte Einschätzung der Arbeitswelt 4.0 vor und stellt dabei den Menschen in einer sich digitalisierenden Arbeitswelt ins Zentrum. Am Ende des Tages beeinflusst das Zusammenspiel von Mensch und Maschine den künftigen Erfolg von Firmen und Organisationen

Associations between Forkhead Box O1 (FoxO1) Expression and Indicators of Hepatic Glucose Production in Transition Dairy Cows Supplemented with Dietary Nicotinic Acid

Forkhead box protein O1 (FoxO1) is a transcription factor which promotes hepatic glucose production (HGP) by up-regulating the transcription of gluconeogenic enzymes in monogastric species. The activity of FoxO1 is inhibited by insulin-induced phosphorylation. The aims of the present study were to find associations between FoxO1 expression and variables associated with HGP as affected by feeding regimen in dairy cows during the transition period. Twenty one healthy German Holstein cows were allocated to four groups (LC-CON, HC-CON, LC-NA with 5 cows/group and HC-NA with 6 cows/group, respectively). Cows received 0 (LC-CON and HC-CON) or 24 (LC-NA and HC-NA) g/d nicotinic acid with high (HC) or low (LC) concentrate proportion from -42 days (-41.8 + 4.8;mean + standard deviation) relative to expected calving date (d-42) to d24. Liver biopsy was taken at d-42, 1, 21, and 100. The total protein expression of FoxO1 (tFoxO1) and the extent of phosphorylation of FoxO1 at serine 256 (pFoxO1) were analysed semiquantitatively by Western Blotting. The expression of hepatic mRNA of FoxO1 and seven genes associated with HGP was measured by real-time RT-PCR. Mixed model and Pearson's correlation were used for statistical evaluation with the level of significance at P<0.05. No dietary effect was observed either on feed intake, energy balance, or on the concentration of blood metabolites. Neither time nor diet affected the expression of FoxO1 total protein and mRNA. A NA x concentrate interaction was found in pFoxO1. However, no corresponding dietary effect was found in the mRNA expression of investigated genes. Different patterns of correlations between FoxO1-related variables and investigated indicators for HGP were found at d21 and 100. The results indicated that the regulation of HGP did not take place on the levels of mRNA and protein expression and the phosphorylation of FoxO1 in dairy cows in early lactation

Insulin Signaling in Liver and Adipose Tissues in Periparturient Dairy Cows Supplemented with Dietary Nicotinic Acid

The glucose homeostasis in dairy cattle is very well controlled, in line with the metabolic adaptation during the periparturient period. Former studies showed that nicotinic acid (NA) lowered plasma non-esterified fatty acids (NEFA) concentrations and increased insulin sensitivity in dairy cows. Thus, the purpose of this study was to investigate whether the expression of proteins involved in hepatic and adipose insulin signaling and protein expression of hepatic glucose transporter 2 (GLUT2) were affected by dietary NA and dietary concentrate intake in periparturient dairy cows. Twenty pluriparous German Holstein cows were fed with the same diet from about 21 days before the expected calving date (d-21) to calving. After calving, cows were randomly assigned in 4 groups and fed with diets different in concentrate proportion ("HC" with 60:40% or "LC" with 30:70% concentrate-to-roughage ratio) and supplemented with NA (24 g/day) (NA) or without (CON) until d21. Biopsy samples were taken from the liver, subcutaneous (SCAT) and retroperitoneal (RPAT) adipose tissues at d-21 and d21. Protein expression of insulin signaling molecules (insulin receptor (INSR), phosphatidylinositol-3-kinase (PI3K), protein kinase C zeta (PKC zeta)) and hepatic GLUT2 was measured by Western Blotting. The ratio of protein expression at d21/at d-21 was calculated and statistically evaluated for the effects of time and diet. Cows in HC had significantly higher dietary energy intake than cows in LC. In RPAT a decrease in PI3K and PKC zeta expression was found in all groups, irrespectively of diet. In the liver, the GLUT2 expression was significantly lower in cows in NA compared with cows in CON. In conclusion, insulin signaling might be decreased in RPAT over time without any effect of diet. NA was able to modulate hepatic GLUT2 expression, but its physiological role is unclear

IAP Studie 2017 – Teil 2 : der Mensch in der Arbeitswelt 4.0: Ergebnisse der qualitativen Interviews

https://www.zhaw.ch/de/psychologie/institute/iap/iap-studie

Automated solid-state NMR resonance assignment of protein microcrystals and amyloids

Solid-state NMR is an emerging structure determination technique for crystalline and non-crystalline protein assemblies, e.g., amyloids. Resonance assignment constitutes the first and often very time-consuming step to a structure. We present ssFLYA, a generally applicable algorithm for automatic assignment of protein solid-state NMR spectra. Application to microcrystals of ubiquitin and the Ure2 prion C-terminal domain, as well as amyloids of HET-s(218-289) and α-synuclein yielded 88-97% correctness for the backbone and side-chain assignments that are classified as self-consistent by the algorithm, and 77-90% correctness if also assignments classified as tentative by the algorithm are include

Disseminating legislative debates: How legislators communicate the parliamentary agenda

While a rich literature addresses legislative agenda-setting in multiparty democracies, relatively little is known how members of parliament disseminate the legislative agenda beyond the parliamentary floor. Drawing on content analyses of 110 legislative debates and 5,847 press releases from Austrian MPs (2013–2017), we test whether legislators are more likely to send press releases on issues that are salient to their party (party agenda-setting) and to other parties in the party system (systemic salience). MPs should also communicate more on issues that fall within their area of expertise (issue specialization) and when they have given a speech on that issue during the legislative debate (intra-party delegation). While we find empirical support for all these expectations, communication of the legislative agenda largely rests on each parties’ issue specialists and their speakers in plenary debates. Importantly, there is no significant discrepancy overall between the actual parliamentary issue agenda and the agenda communicated by party MPs