A decentralized approach to model national and global food and land use systems

The achievement of several sustainable development goals and the Paris Climate Agreement depends on rapid progress towards sustainable food and land systems in all countries. We have built a flexible, collaborative modeling framework to foster the development of national pathways by local research teams and their integration up to global scale. Local researchers independently customize national models to explore mid-century pathways of the food and land use system transformation in collaboration with stakeholders. An online platform connects the national models, iteratively balances global exports and imports, and aggregates results to the global level. Our results show that actions toward greater sustainability in countries could sum up to 1 Mha net forest gain per year, 950 Mha net gain in the land where natural processes predominate, and an increased CO2 sink of 3.7 GtCO2e yr−1 over the period 2020-2050 compared to current trends, while average food consumption per capita remains above the adequate food requirements in all countries. We show examples of how the global linkage impacts national results and how different assumptions in national pathways impact global results. This modeling setup acknowledges the broad heterogeneity of socio-ecological contexts and the fact that people who live in these different contexts should be empowered to design the future they want. But it also demonstrates to local decision-makers the interconnectedness of our food and land use system and the urgent need for more collaboration to converge local and global priorities.Fil: Mosnier, Aline. Sustainable Development Solutions Network; FranciaFil: Javalera Rincon, Valeria. International Institute For Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg; AustriaFil: Jones, Sarah K. Alliance of Bioversity International; FranciaFil: Andrew, Robbie. Center for International Climate Research; NoruegaFil: Bai, Zhaohai. Chinese Academy of Sciences; República de ChinaFil: Baker, Justin. North Carolina State University; Estados UnidosFil: Basnet, Shyam. Stockholm Resilience Centre; SueciaFil: Boer, Rizaldi. Bogor Agricultural University; IndonesiaFil: Chavarro, John. Geo-agro-environmental Sciences And Resources Research Center; ColombiaFil: Costa, Wanderson. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; BrasilFil: Daloz, Anne Sophie. Center for International Climate Research; NoruegaFil: DeClerck, Fabrice A.. Alliance of Bioversity International; Francia. Stockholm Resilience Centre; SueciaFil: Diaz, Maria. Sustainable Development Solutions Network; FranciaFil: Douzal, Clara. Sustainable Development Solutions Network; FranciaFil: Howe Fan, Andrew Chiah. Sunway University; MalasiaFil: Fetzer, Ingo. Stockholm Resilience Centre; SueciaFil: Frank, Federico. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Centro Regional Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Gonzalez Abraham, Charlotte E.. University of California at San Diego; Estados UnidosFil: Habiburrachman, A. H. F.. Universitas Indonesia; IndonesiaFil: Immanuel, Gito. Stockholm Resilience Centre; SueciaFil: Harrison, Paula A.. Centre for Ecology & Hydrology; Reino UnidoFil: Imanirareba, Dative. Uganda Martyrs University; UgandaFil: Jha, Chandan. Indian Institute Of Management Ahmedabad; IndiaFil: Monjeau, Jorge Adrian. Fundación Bariloche; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Vittis, Yiorgos. International Institute For Applied Systems Analysis; AustriaFil: Wade, Chris. North Carolina State University; Estados UnidosFil: Winarni, Nurul L.. Universitas Indonesia; IndonesiaFil: Woldeyes, Firew Bekele. Ethiopian Development Research Institute; EtiopíaFil: Wu, Grace C.. University of California; Estados UnidosFil: Zerriffi, Hisham. University of British Columbia; Canad

A decentralized approach to model national and global food and land use systems

The achievement of several sustainable development goals and the Paris Climate Agreement depends on rapid progress towards sustainable food and land systems in all countries. We have built a flexible, collaborative modeling framework to foster the development of national pathways by local research teams and their integration up to global scale. Local researchers independently customize national models to explore mid-century pathways of the food and land use system transformation in collaboration with stakeholders. An online platform connects the national models, iteratively balances global exports and imports, and aggregates results to the global level. Our results show that actions toward greater sustainability in countries could sum up to 1 Mha net forest gain per year, 950 Mha net gain in the land where natural processes predominate, and an increased CO _2 sink of 3.7 GtCO _2 e yr ^−1 over the period 2020–2050 compared to current trends, while average food consumption per capita remains above the adequate food requirements in all countries. We show examples of how the global linkage impacts national results and how different assumptions in national pathways impact global results. This modeling setup acknowledges the broad heterogeneity of socio-ecological contexts and the fact that people who live in these different contexts should be empowered to design the future they want. But it also demonstrates to local decision-makers the interconnectedness of our food and land use system and the urgent need for more collaboration to converge local and global priorities

How can diverse national food and land-use priorities be reconciled with global sustainability targets? Lessons from the FABLE initiative

There is an urgent need for countries to transition their national food and land-use systems toward food and nutritional security, climate stability, and environmental integrity. How can countries satisfy their demands while jointly delivering the required transformative change to achieve global sustainability targets? Here, we present a collaborative approach developed with the FABLE—Food, Agriculture, Biodiversity, Land, and Energy—Consortium to reconcile both global and national elements for developing national food and land-use system pathways. This approach includes three key features: (1) global targets, (2) country-driven multi-objective pathways, and (3) multiple iterations of pathway refinement informed by both national and international impacts. This approach strengthens policy coherence and highlights where greater national and international ambition is needed to achieve global goals (e.g., the SDGs). We discuss how this could be used to support future climate and biodiversity negotiations and what further developments would be needed