Fluctuations and correlations in population models with age structure

We study the population profile in a simple discrete time model of population dynamics. Our model, which is closely related to certain ``bit-string'' models of evolution, incorporates competition for resources via a population dependent death probability, as well as a variable reproduction probability for each individual as a function of age. We first solve for the steady-state of the model in mean field theory, before developing analytic techniques to compute Gaussian fluctuation corrections around the mean field fixed point. Our computations are found to be in good agreement with Monte-Carlo simulations. Finally we discuss how similar methods may be applied to fluctuations in continuous time population models.Comment: 4 page

Ion Charge States in Halo CMEs: What can we Learn about the Explosion?

We describe a new modeling approach to develop a more quantitative understanding of the charge state distributions of the ions of various elements detected in situ during halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) events by the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite. Using a model CME hydrodynamic evolution based on observations of CMEs propagating in the plane of the sky and on theoretical models, we integrate time dependent equations for the ionization balance of various elements to compare with ACE data. We find that plasma in the CME ``core'' typically requires further heating following filament eruption, with thermal energy input similar to the kinetic energy input. This extra heating is presumably the result of post eruptive reconnection. Plasma corresponding to the CME ``cavity'' is usually not further ionized, since whether heated or not, the low density gives freeze-in close the the Sun. The current analysis is limited by ambiguities in the underlying model CME evolution. Such methods are likely to reach their full potential when applied to data to be acquired by STEREO when at optimum separation. CME evolution observed with one spacecraft may be used to interpret CME charge states detected by the other.Comment: 20 pages, accepted by Ap

Getting it right: The case for supervisors assessing process in capstone projects

© 2015 TEMPUS Publications. Capstone projects represent the culmination of an undergraduate engineering degree and are typically the last checkpoint measure before students graduate and enter the engineering profession. In Australia there is a longstanding interest in and commitment to developing quality capstone experiences.Anational study into the supervision and assessment of capstone projects has determined that whilst there is relative consistency in terms of what project tasks are set and assessed, there is not comparable consistency in how these tasks or assignments are marked. Two interconnected areas of assessing process and the role of the supervisor in marking are identified as contentious. This paper presents some findings of a national case study and concludes that whilst further investigation is warranted, assessing process as well as project products is valuable as is the need for greater acceptance of project supervisors as capable of making informed, professional judgments when marking significant project work

Fluctuating salience in those living with genetic risk of motor neuron disease : a qualitative interview study.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors would like to thank all the participants who took part in interviews and the advisory panel who supported and advised them over the study. This study was supported by a project grant from the Motor Neurone Disease (MND) Association (Locock/Sept19/941-794), which included funding for healthtalk.org dissemination.Jade Howard's PhD funding was awarded by the Institute of Applied Health Sciences, University of Aberdeen. For the purpose of open access, the authors have applied a Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) licence to any Author Accepted Manuscript version arising from this submission Funding information Motor Neurone Disease Association, Grant/Award Number: Locock/Sept19/941‐ 794; University of AberdeenPeer reviewe

Variational bound on energy dissipation in turbulent shear flow

We present numerical solutions to the extended Doering-Constantin variational principle for upper bounds on the energy dissipation rate in plane Couette flow, bridging the entire range from low to asymptotically high Reynolds numbers. Our variational bound exhibits structure, namely a pronounced minimum at intermediate Reynolds numbers, and recovers the Busse bound in the asymptotic regime. The most notable feature is a bifurcation of the minimizing wavenumbers, giving rise to simple scaling of the optimized variational parameters, and of the upper bound, with the Reynolds number.Comment: 4 pages, RevTeX, 5 postscript figures are available as one .tar.gz file from [email protected]

Deep learning cardiac motion analysis for human survival prediction

Motion analysis is used in computer vision to understand the behaviour of moving objects in sequences of images. Optimising the interpretation of dynamic biological systems requires accurate and precise motion tracking as well as efficient representations of high-dimensional motion trajectories so that these can be used for prediction tasks. Here we use image sequences of the heart, acquired using cardiac magnetic resonance imaging, to create time-resolved three-dimensional segmentations using a fully convolutional network trained on anatomical shape priors. This dense motion model formed the input to a supervised denoising autoencoder (4Dsurvival), which is a hybrid network consisting of an autoencoder that learns a task-specific latent code representation trained on observed outcome data, yielding a latent representation optimised for survival prediction. To handle right-censored survival outcomes, our network used a Cox partial likelihood loss function. In a study of 302 patients the predictive accuracy (quantified by Harrell's C-index) was significantly higher (p < .0001) for our model C=0.73 (95$\%$ CI: 0.68 - 0.78) than the human benchmark of C=0.59 (95$\%$ CI: 0.53 - 0.65). This work demonstrates how a complex computer vision task using high-dimensional medical image data can efficiently predict human survival

Radio-echo sounding and waveform modeling reveal abundant marine ice in former rifts and basal crevasses within Crary Ice Rise, Antarctica

Crary Ice Rise formed after the Ross Ice Shelf re-grounded ~1 kyr BP. We present new ice-penetrating radar data from two systems operating at center frequencies of 7 and 750 MHz that confirm the ice rise is composed of a former ice shelf buried by subsequent accumulation. Stacks of englacial diffraction hyperbolas are present almost everywhere across the central ice rise and extend up to ~350 m above the bed. In many cases, bed reflections beneath the diffraction hyperbolas are obscured for distances up to 1 km. Waveform modeling indicates that the diffraction hyperbolas are likely caused by marine ice deposits in former basal crevasses and rifts. The in-filling of rifts and basal crevasses may have strengthened the connection between the ice rise and the surrounding ice shelf, which could have influenced local and regional ice dynamics. Three internal reflection horizons mark the upper limit of disturbed ice and diffraction hyperbolas in different sections of the ice rise, indicating at least three stages of flow stabilization across the ice rise. A surface lineation visible in MODIS imagery corresponds spatially to deepening and strong deformation of these layers, consistent with the characteristics of former grounding lines observed elsewhere in Antarctica

Solution structure of a bacterial microcompartment targeting peptide and its application in the construction of an ethanol bioreactor

Targeting of proteins to bacterial microcompartments (BMCs) is mediated by an 18-amino-acid peptide sequence. Herein, we report the solution structure of the N-terminal targeting peptide (P18) of PduP, the aldehyde dehydrogenase associated with the 1,2-propanediol utilization metabolosome from Citrobacter freundii. The solution structure reveals the peptide to have a well-defined helical conformation along its whole length. Saturation transfer difference and transferred NOE NMR has highlighted the observed interaction surface on the peptide with its main interacting shell protein, PduK. By tagging both a pyruvate decarboxylase and an alcohol dehydrogenase with targeting peptides, it has been possible to direct these enzymes to empty BMCs in vivo and to generate an ethanol bioreactor. Not only are the purified, redesigned BMCs able to transform pyruvate into ethanol efficiently, but the strains containing the modified BMCs produce elevated levels of alcohol