A framework for quantifying the magnitude and variability of community responses to global change drivers

A major challenge in global change ecology is to predict the trajectory and magnitude of community change in response to global change drivers (GCDs). Here, we present a new framework that not only increases the predictive power of individual studies, but also allows for synthesis across GCD studies and ecosystems. First, we suggest that by quantifying community dissimilarity of replicates both among and within treatments, we can infer both the magnitude and predictability of community change, respectively. Second, we demonstrate the utility of integrating rank abundance curves with measures of community dissimilarity to understand the species-level dynamics driving community changes and propose a series of testable hypotheses linking changes in rank abundance curves with shifts in community dissimilarity. Finally, we review six case studies that demonstrate how our new conceptual framework can be applied. Overall, we present a new framework for holistically predicting community responses to GCDs that has broad applicability in this era of unprecedented global change and novel environmental conditions

Crustal Imaging Across the North Anatolian Fault Zone from the Auto-Correlation of Ambient Seismic Noise

Seismic images of active fault zones can be used to examine the structure of faults throughout the crust and upper mantle, and give clues as to whether the associated deformation occurs within a narrow shear zone, or is broadly distributed through the lower crust. Limitations on seismic resolution within the crust, and difficulties imaging shallow structures such as the crust-mantle boundary (Moho), place constraints on the interpretation of seismic images. In this study we retrieve body wave reflections from autocorrelations of ambient seismic noise. The instantaneous phase coherence autocorrelations allow unprecedented ambient noise images of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ). Our reflection profiles show a Moho reflected P-wave, and additional structure within the crust and upper mantle. We image a distinct vertical offset of the Moho associated with the northern branch of the NAFZ indicating that deformation related to the fault remains narrow in the upper mantle

Global change effects on plant communities are magnified by time and the number of global change factors imposed

Global change drivers (GCDs) are expected to alter community structure and consequently, the services that ecosystems provide. Yet, few experimental investigations have examined effects of GCDs on plant community structure across multiple ecosystem types, and those that do exist present conflicting patterns. In an unprecedented global synthesis of over 100 experiments that manipulated factors linked to GCDs, we show that herbaceous plant community responses depend on experimental manipulation length and number of factors manipulated. We found that plant communities are fairly resistant to experimentally manipulated GCDs in the short term (<10 y). In contrast, long-term (≥10 y) experiments show increasing community divergence of treatments from control conditions. Surprisingly, these community responses occurred with similar frequency across the GCD types manipulated in our database. However, community responses were more common when 3 or more GCDs were simultaneously manipulated, suggesting the emergence of additive or synergistic effects of multiple drivers, particularly over long time periods. In half of the cases, GCD manipulations caused a difference in community composition without a corresponding species richness difference, indicating that species reordering or replacement is an important mechanism of community responses to GCDs and should be given greater consideration when examining consequences of GCDs for the biodiversity–ecosystem function relationship. Human activities are currently driving unparalleled global changes worldwide. Our analyses provide the most comprehensive evidence to date that these human activities may have widespread impacts on plant community composition globally, which will increase in frequency over time and be greater in areas where communities face multiple GCDs simultaneously

Ground Beetle (Coleoptera: Carabidae) Responses to Cattle Grazing, Grassland Restoration, and Habitat across a Precipitation Gradient

Grasslands in North America have declined by over 70% since industrialization of settlements due to the conversion of natural habitats to cropland and urban centers. In the United States, the federally supported Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) was created to improve water quality, reduce soil erosion, and increase native habitats for wildlife. Within these restored grasslands, ground beetles (Coleoptera: Carabidae) are a keystone invertebrate group that fill several crucial niches and may serve as bioindicators of successful land management strategies. To understand the impact of land management on ground beetles, we examined carabid beetle community responses to a grazing treatment and two plant restoration treatments with low and relatively high initial plant diversity over two field seasons. We used pitfall traps at 108 CRP sites across a 63.5 cm precipitation gradient, encompassing three grassland types. Overall, grazing and restoration treatment did not have detectable effects on carabid abundance, biomass, or diversity. Carabid communities, however, responded differently to grazing within grassland types&mdash;all three community measures increased in response to grazing in tallgrass sites only. Our short-term study suggests that moderate levels of cattle grazing do not negatively affect carabid communities and might have positive effects on abundance, biomass, and diversity in tallgrass regions

Global change effects on plant communities are magnified by time and the number of global change factors imposed

Global change drivers (GCDs) are expected to alter community structure and consequently, the services that ecosystems provide. Yet, few experimental investigations have examined effects of GCDs on plant community structure across multiple ecosystem types, and those that do exist present conflicting patterns. In an unprecedented global synthesis of over 100 experiments that manipulated factors linked to GCDs, we show that herbaceous plant community responses depend on experimental manipulation length and number of factors manipulated. We found that plant communities are fairly resistant to experimentally manipulated GCDs in the short term (\u3c10 y). In contrast, long-term (≥10 y) experiments show increasing community divergence of treatments from control conditions. Surprisingly, these community responses occurred with similar frequency across the GCD types manipulated in our database. However, community responses were more common when 3 or more GCDs were simultaneously manipulated, suggesting the emergence of additive or synergistic effects of multiple drivers, particularly over long time periods. In half of the cases, GCD manipulations caused a difference in community composition without a corresponding species richness difference, indicating that species reordering or replacement is an important mechanism of community responses to GCDs and should be given greater consideration when examining consequences of GCDs for the biodiversity.ecosystem function relationship. Human activities are currently driving unparalleled global changes worldwide. Our analyses provide the most comprehensive evidence to date that these human activities may have widespread impacts on plant community composition globally, which will increase in frequency over time and be greater in areas where communities face multiple GCDs simultaneously