"Structure and Asymptotic Theory for Multivariate Asymmetric Volatility: Empirical Evidence for Country Risk Ratings"

Following the rapid growth in the international debt of less developed countries in the 1970s and the increasing incidence of debt rescheduling in the early 1980s, country risk has become a topic of major concern for the international financial community. A critical assessment of country risk is essential because it reflects the ability and willingness of a country to service its financial obligations. Various risk rating agencies employ different methods to determine country risk ratings, combining a range of qualitative and quantitative information regarding alternative measures of economic, financial and political risk into associated composite risk ratings. This paper provides an international comparison of country risk ratings compiled by the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG), which is the only international rating agency to provide detailed and consistent monthly data over an extended period for a large number of countries. As risk ratings can be treated as indexes, their rate of change, or returns, merits attention in the same manner as financial returns. For this reason, a constant correlation multivariate asymmetric ARMA-GARCH model is presented and its underlying structure is established, including the unique, strictly stationary and ergodic solution of the model, its causal expansion, and convenient sufficient conditions for the existence of moments. Alternative empirically verifiable sufficient conditions for the consistency and asymptotic normality of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator are established under non-normality of the conditional (or standardized) shocks. The empirical results provide a comparative assessment of the conditional means and volatilities associated with international country risk returns across countries and over time, enable a validation of the regularity conditions underlying the models, highlight the importance of economic, financial and political risk ratings as components of a composite risk rating, evaluate the multivariate effects of alternative risk returns and different countries, and evaluate the usefulness of the ICRG risk ratings in modelling risk returns.

ALBANIA'S ECONOMIC POLICIES IN THE CONTEXT OF EUROPEAN SOCIAL MODEL

This paper examines the key aspects of the main social insurance programs development in Europe, and in Albania, during different periods of time, in order to face the elements of this model, as well as the respective development. Employment and a welfare regime are both the key elements of the social model. The first element refers to the way how industrial relations are regulated, the skills development and wage settlements. The second element refers to the way how social protection is organized and social services are provided by the state, market and family in the production and distribution of welfare. Employment and welfare regimes are related, but not necessarily coherent in a wide period and intensive institutional change. The paper notes that dimension of the state welfare in the economic system is a sensitive topic in European integration. This is due to the emphasis given to the purpose of the competition, closely linked to the EU, as well as the strong relation between European social model and integration in the European Union, whose candidate status also Albania holds

Remittances and Poverty in Albania

With increasing labor and capital mobility in the world, remittance flows have risen significantly to become the second source after FDI of external funding for developing countries. Remittances are now viewed by many development practitioners as an important development tool for recipient countries. This paper studies the impact of remittances on poverty in Albania –one of the top 20 remittance-receiving countriesin the world. It is found that remittances have a significant impact on the reduction of absolute povertyin the country by directly raising household income and consumption. However, sinceemigration is costly, remittances do not reach the poorest individuals, which can have a negative impact on inequality. Moreover, there seems to be a high degree of dependency on remittances in Albania, both on the micro and macro level. Therefore, the sustainability of this source of income is of special concern

Outsourcing in Kosovo: An analysis of Kosovo\u27s comparative advantage and the potential for growth

The main focus of this research project is to explore the implications of outsourcing on the service provider countries, specifically for the case of Kosovo. With the emergence of globalization, international markets are more interconnected than ever. Technology has facilitated businesses with different ways of reducing costs, one of them being outsourcing part of their business processes internationally, also known as offshore outsourcing. While the impact of such strategies on the client countries is controversial, there is almost universal agreement that the impact on provider countries, especially when they are developing countries, is positive. Being a developing country, Kosovo can also benefit from improving its services trade balance, and one way to achieve that is by the expansion and development of its outsourcing sector. Using both primary and secondary data research, this study analyzes Kosovo’s outsourcing sector, the potential for development, and the main challenges faced by startup businesses in this sector. Since there is limited existing data (both qualitative and quantitative) regarding Kosovo’s potential as an outsourcing destination, this study can contribute in filling in some of the gaps. Based on first-hand information from representatives of existing outsourcing companies in Kosovo, as well as examples from literature on other countries, a list of recommendations for the Kosovar government and other stakeholders is provided

Attitudes to immigration and human values – a repeated cross-sectional study in three European countries

This doctoral research investigates the relationship between attitudes towards immigration and human values in three European countries; UK, Germany and Sweden. I use ESS survey data from 2002 – 2014 and new methodological approaches to examine this link and further explore if there is country specific differences and whether attitudes to immigration changes over time. In addition to this I also add various socio-demographic and political factors to the analysis. Previous research in this area is scarce and generally assumes the effect of human value dimensions on attitudes is universal and the there are no country-specific differences. To answer the question if human values shape attitudes to immigration and whether there are country specific differences I used cumulative link ordinal regression modelling which is the most appropriate statistical method for analysing such data. Analysis was carried out on a country by country basis, looking separately also at the majority native population as well as the minority ethnic population. Items contributing to the human value dimensions of universalism and conservation showed a clear association with attitudes towards immigration, which was in line with previous research. However, not all human value-attitude relationships were in agreement with Schwartz’s theory of effect direction, but with some value items an opposite relationship was observed. A new latent class approach was used to examine whether human values change over time and there was is no evidence that the latent classes themselves change definition over time, implying that Schwartz is correct when he states that human values are invariant and do not change over time. While individuals may change their view and move classes, there is no evidence of the value items realigning themselves around a new latent class structure. The developed latent class model used to investigate whether the latent class definitions or profiles change over time, in the case of human values, is new and extents the multi-group latent class model into continuous groups where a linear change is expected. The finding of this research concludes that, contrary to Sagiv and Schwartz (1995), the effect of human values on attitudes appears not to be universal, changing both over the subsample considered and from country to country. In general, the thesis concludes that clear country differences are to be expected

Basal Ganglia Infarct in Young Female Patient: in Consideration with D.V.T and Paradoxical Emboli

Twenty four years old female presented on the 20th postnatal day with painful swelling of her limbs (more in the lower limbs) along with headache, nausea, and right sided weakness. On the basis of the history, relevant physical examination and investigations (C.T scan brain and echocardiography) she was diagnosed to have a paradoxical emboli from D.V.T (deep venous thrombosis) of her legs that reached her brain through patent foramen oval causing a basal ganglia infarct. Based on her serum albumin and ascetic albumin, her diagnosis was made which was in the favor of nephrotic syndrome. She was heparinized and anti-platelets aggregating therapy was initiated for her deep venous thrombosis. She was advised to get physiotherapy for the weakness she had on her right side. Because of timely diagnosis and early treatment her weakness had a gross improvement and she was able to start moving her limbs by herself at the time of hospital discharge.   &nbsp

Value-at-Risk for Country Risk Ratings

The country risk literature argues that country risk ratings have a direct impact on the cost of borrowings as they reflect the probability of debt default by a country. An improvement in country risk ratings, or country creditworthiness, will lower a country’s cost of borrowing and debt servicing obligations, and vice-versa. In this context, it is useful to analyse country risk ratings data, much like financial data, in terms of the time series patterns, as such an analysis would provide policy makers and the industry stakeholders with a more accurate method of forecasting future changes in the risks and returns of country risk ratings. This paper considered an extension of the Value-at-Risk (VaR) framework where both the upper and lower thresholds are considered. The purpose of the paper was to forecast the conditional variance and Country Risk Bounds (CRBs) for the rate of change of risk ratings for ten countries. The conditional variance of composite risk returns for the ten countries were forecasted using the Single Index (SI) and Portfolio Methods (PM) of McAleer and da Veiga [10,11]. The results suggested that the country risk ratings of Switzerland, Japan and Australia are much mode likely to remain close to current levels than the country risk ratings of Argentina, Brazil and Mexico. This type of analysis would be useful to lenders/investors evaluating the attractiveness of lending/investing in alternative countries.Country risk; risk ratings; value-at-risk; risk bounds; risk management

Value-at-Risk for Country Risk Ratings

The country risk literature argues that country risk ratings have a direct impact on the cost of borrowings as they reflect the probability of debt default by a country. An improvement in country risk ratings, or country creditworthiness, will lower a country's cost of borrowing and debt servicing obligations, and vice-versa. In this context, it is useful to analyse country risk ratings data, much like financial data, in terms of the time series patterns, as such an analysis provides policy makers and industry stakeholders with a more accurate method of forecasting future changes in the risks and returns associated with country risk ratings.

The Export Potential of Kosovo\u27s Natural Resources and their Impact on the Kosovo Economy

Kosovo is a young country with many acute problems from a political, economic, and social perspective. Its economy represents one of its many current struggles. Kosovo’s unemployment rate is extremely high (“Assessment of the Employment Strategy: the need for a concrete strategy,” 2013) and its trade deficit is enormous (“External Trade Statistis 2011,” 2012). Accordingly, most of the money in Kosovo leaves the country for imported goods from other countries. Therefore, the country’s economy is unable to benefit from the multiplier effect and thus loses the opportunity of creating new jobs within the country’s borders. Consequently, if the country shall make faster economic progress, then Kosovo must find a way to keep the money within its borders. By doing so, Kosovo’s economy will be able to benefit from the aforementioned multiplier effect and thus support the creation and development of domestic industries, which in turn will increase employment. However, how can Kosovo increase its exports and as a result of that improve its current tremendous trade deficit? After a thorough review of material regarding Kosovo’s economic sectors that may have a significant export and growth potential, it is worthwhile to note that the following three sectors have been mentioned repeatedly: natural resources (minerals and metals), land, and labor (USAID, 2013). However, continuous research suggests that out of these three vital sectors, it is Kosovo’s natural resources like coal and lead-zinc which appear to be the most promising sectors for exports. Therefore, this paper will search for the economic potential of Kosovo’s natural resource sectors and attempt to estimate their potential in monetary terms as well. As mentioned before, in addition to assessing the monetary value of the resources, this paper will also aim to analyze the export prospects of the particular endowments by actively searching for demand factors in countries and industries that might become important purchasers of such industrial goods