Facilitating Team-Based Data Science: Lessons Learned from the DSC-WAV Project

While coursework provides undergraduate data science students with some relevant analytic skills, many are not given the rich experiences with data and computing they need to be successful in the workplace. Additionally, students often have limited exposure to team-based data science and the principles and tools of collaboration that are encountered outside of school. In this paper, we describe the DSC-WAV program, an NSF-funded data science workforce development project in which teams of undergraduate sophomores and juniors work with a local non-profit organization on a data-focused problem. To help students develop a sense of agency and improve confidence in their technical and non-technical data science skills, the project promoted a team-based approach to data science, adopting several processes and tools intended to facilitate this collaboration. Evidence from the project evaluation, including participant survey and interview data, is presented to document the degree to which the project was successful in engaging students in team-based data science, and how the project changed the students\u27 perceptions of their technical and non-technical skills. We also examine opportunities for improvement and offer insight to other data science educators who may want to implement a similar team-based approach to data science projects at their own institutions

Near-term ecological forecasting for dynamic aeroconservation of migratory birds

Near-term ecological forecasting has the potential to mitigate negative impacts of human modifications on wildlife by directing efficient action through relevant and timely predictions. We used the U.S. avian migration system to highlight ecological forecasting applications for aeroconservation. We used millions of observations from 143 weather surveillance radars to construct and evaluate a migration forecasting system for nocturnal bird migration over the contiguous United States. We identified the number of nights of mitigation required to reduce the risk of aerial hazards to 50% of avian migrants passing a given area in spring and autumn based on dynamic forecasts of migration activity. We also investigated an alternative approach, that is, employing a fixed conservation strategy based on time windows that historically capture 50% of migratory passage. In practice, during both spring and autumn, dynamic forecasts required fewer action nights compared with fixed window selection at all locations (spring: mean of 7.3 more alert days; fall: mean of 12.8 more alert days). This pattern resulted in part from the pulsed nature of bird migration captured in the radar data, where the majority (54.3%) of birds move on 10% of a migration season\u27s nights. Our results highlight the benefits of near-term ecological forecasting and the potential advantages of dynamic mitigation strategies over static ones, especially in the face of increasing risks to migrating birds from light pollution, wind energy infrastructure, and collisions with structures

Inositol 1,4,5-trisphosphate supports the arrhythmogenic action of endothelin-1 on ventricular cardiac myocytes

Although ventricular cardiomyocytes express inositol 1,4,5-trisphosphate [Ins(1,4,5)Ρ3] receptors, it is unclear how these Ca2+ channels contribute to the effects of Gq-coupled agonists. Endothelin-1 augmented the amplitude of pacing-evoked Ca2+ signals (positive inotropy), and caused an increasing frequency of spontaneous diastolic Ca2+-release transients. Both effects of endothelin-1 were blocked by an antagonist of phospholipase C, suggesting that Ins(1,4,5)Ρ3 and/or diacylglycerol production was necessary. The endothelin-1-mediated spontaneous Ca2+ transients were abolished by application of 2-aminoethoxydiphenyl borate (2-APB), an antagonist of Ins(1,4,5)Ρ3 receptors. Incubation of electrically-paced ventricular myocytes with a membrane-permeant Ins(1,4,5)Ρ3 ester provoked the occurrence of spontaneous diastolic Ca2+ transients with the same characteristics and sensitivity to 2-APB as the events stimulated by endothelin-1. In addition to evoking spontaneous Ca2+ transients, stimulation of ventricular myocytes with the Ins(1,4,5)Ρ3 ester caused a positive inotropic effect. The effects of endothelin-1 were compared with two other stimuli, isoproterenol and digoxin, which are known to induce inotropy and spontaneous Ca2+ transients by overloading intracellular Ca2+ stores. The events evoked by isoproterenol and digoxin were dissimilar from those triggered by endothelin-1 in several ways. We propose that Ins(1,4,5)Ρ3 receptors support the development of both inotropy and spontaneous pro-arrhythmic Ca2+ signals in ventricular myocytes stimulated with a Gq-coupled agonist

Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2015. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of National Academy of Sciences for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 112 (2015): 12610-12615, doi:10.1073/pnas.1513127112.In a changing climate, future inundation of the United States’ Atlantic coast will depend on both storm surges during tropical cyclones and the rising relative sea-levels on which those surges occur. However, the observational record of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin is too short (AD 1851-present) to accurately assess long-term trends in storm activity. To overcome this limitation, we use proxy sealevel records, and downscale three CMIP5 models to generate large synthetic tropical cyclone data sets for the North Atlantic basin; driving climate conditions span from AD 850 to AD 2005. We compare preanthropogenic era (AD 850 – AD 1800) and anthropogenic era (AD 1970 – AD 2005) storm-surge model results for New York City, exposing links between increased rates of sea-level rise and storm flood heights. We find that mean flood heights increased by ~1.24 m (due mainly to sea level rise) from ~AD 850 to the anthropogenic era, a result that is significant at the 99% confidence level. Additionally, changes in tropical cyclone characteristics have led to increases in the extremes of the types of storms that create the largest storm surges for New York City. As a result, flood risk has greatly increased for the region; for example, the 500 year return period for a ~2.25 m flood height during the preanthropogenic era has decreased to ~24.4 years in the anthropogenic era. Our results indicate the impacts of climate change on coastal inundation, and call for advanced risk management strategies.The authors acknowledge funding for this study from NOAA Grants # 424-18 45GZ and # NA11OAR4310101 and National Science Foundation award OCE 1458904.2016-03-2

The Development Of A Modern Foraminiferal Data Set For Sea-Level Reconstructions, Wakatobi Marine National Park, Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia

We collected modern foraminiferal samples to characterize the foraminiferal environments and investigate the role that temporal and spatial variability may play in controlling the nature and significance of foraminiferal assemblages of the mangroves of Kaledupa, Wakatobi Marine National Park, Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia. The study of foraminiferal live and dead assemblages indicates that dead assemblages are least prone to vary in time and space, and furthermore, they accurately represent the subsurface assemblages that are the focus of paleoenvironmental reconstructions. Further analyses of the dead assemblages indicate a vertical zonation of foraminifera within the intertidal zone. Zone D-Ia is dominated by agglutinated foraminifera Arenoparrella mexicana, Miliammina fusca, M. obliqua and Trochammina inflata. Zone D-Ib has mixed agglutinated/calcareous assemblages with species such as T. inflata and Ammonia tepida. Zone D-II is dominated by numerous calcareous species including A. tepida, Discorbinella bertheloti, Elphidium advenum and Quinqueloculina spp. Zone D-Ia is found to be the most accurate sea-level indicator and its assemblages are omnipresent world-wide. Zones D-Ib and D-II are subject to both spatial and temporal variations which must be included in any sea-level reconstructions

Measuring SO2 Emission Rates at Kīlauea Volcano, Hawaii, Using an Array of Upward-Looking UV Spectrometers, 2014–2017

Retrieving accurate volcanic sulfur dioxide (SO2) gas emission rates is important for a variety of purposes. It is an indicator of shallow subsurface magma, and thus may signal impending eruption or unrest. SO2 emission rates are significant for accurately assessing climate impact, and providing context for assessing environmental, agricultural, and human health effects during volcanic eruptions. The U.S. Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory uses an array of ten fixed, upward-looking ultraviolet spectrometer systems to measure SO2 emission rates at 10-s sample intervals from the Kīlauea summit. We present Kīlauea SO2 emission rates from the volcano’s summit and middle East Rift Zone during 2014–2017 and discuss the major sources of error for these measurements. Due to the wide range of SO2 emissions encountered at the summit vent, we used a variable wavelength spectral analysis range to accurately quantify both high and low SO2 column densities. We compare measured emission rates from the fixed spectrometer array to independent road and helicopter-based traverse measurements and evaluate the magnitudes and sources of uncertainties for each method. To address the challenge of obtaining accurate plume speed measurements, we examine ground-based wind-speed, plume speed tracking via spectrometer, and SO2 camera derived plume speeds. Our analysis shows that: (1) the summit array column densities calculated using a dual fit window, are within -6 to +22% of results obtained with a variety of other conventional and experimental retrieval methods; (2) emission rates calculated from the summit array located ∼3 km downwind provide the best, practical estimate of summit SO2 release under normal trade wind conditions; (3) ground-based anemometer wind speeds are 22% less than plume speeds determined by cross-correlation of plume features; (4) our best estimate of average Kīlauea SO2 release for 2014–2017 is 5100 t/d, which is comparable to the space-based OMI emissions of 5518 t/d; and (5) short-term variability of SO2 emissions reflects Kīlauea lava lake dynamics

Replication of the association of HLA-B7 with Alzheimer's disease: a role for homozygosity?

BACKGROUND: There are reasons to expect an association with Alzheimer's disease (AD) within the HLA region. The HLA-B & C genes have, however, been relatively understudied. A geographically specific association with HLA-B7 & HLA-Cw*0702 had been suggested by our previous, small study. METHODS: We studied the HLA-B & C alleles in 196 cases of 'definite' or 'probable' AD and 199 elderly controls of the OPTIMA cohort, the largest full study of these alleles in AD to date. RESULTS: We replicated the association of HLA-B7 with AD (overall, adjusted odds ratio = 2.3, 95% confidence interval = 1.4–3.7, p = 0.001), but not the previously suggested interaction with the ε4 allele of apolipoprotein E. Results for HLA-Cw*0702, which is in tight linkage disequilibrium with HLA-B7, were consistent with those for the latter. Homozygotes of both alleles appeared to be at particularly high risk of AD. CONCLUSION: HLA-B7 and HLA-Cw*0702 are associated with AD in the Oxford population. Because of the contradictions between cohorts in our previous study, we suggest that these results may be geographically specific. This might be because of differences between populations in the structure of linkage disequilibrium or in interactions with environmental, genetic or epigenetic factors. A much larger study will be needed to clarify the role of homozygosity of HLA alleles in AD risk

Author Correction: Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey

Correction to: NPJ Climate and Atmospheric Science https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-020-0121-5, published online 08 May 202

Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey

Sea-level rise projections and knowledge of their uncertainties are vital to make informed mitigation and adaptation decisions. To elicit projections from members of the scientific community regarding future global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise, we repeated a survey originally conducted five years ago. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, 106 experts projected a likely (central 66% probability) GMSL rise of 0.30–0.65 m by 2100, and 0.54–2.15 m by 2300, relative to 1986–2005. Under RCP 8.5, the same experts projected a likely GMSL rise of 0.63–1.32 m by 2100, and 1.67–5.61 m by 2300. Expert projections for 2100 are similar to those from the original survey, although the projection for 2300 has extended tails and is higher than the original survey. Experts give a likelihood of 42% (original survey) and 45% (current survey) that under the high-emissions scenario GMSL rise will exceed the upper bound (0.98 m) of the likely range estimated by the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is considered to have an exceedance likelihood of 17%. Responses to open-ended questions suggest that the increases in upper-end estimates and uncertainties arose from recent influential studies about the impact of marine ice cliff instability on the meltwater contribution to GMSL rise from the Antarctic Ice Sheet. © 2020, The Author(s)