Technical characteristics of a solar geoengineering deployment and implications for governance

Consideration of solar geoengineering as a potential response to climate change will demand complex decisions. These include not only the choice of whether to deploy solar engineering, but decisions regarding how to deploy, and ongoing decision-making throughout deployment. Research on the governance of solar geoengineering to date has primarily engaged only with the question of whether to deploy. We examine the science of solar geoengineering in order to clarify the technical dimensions of decisions about deployment – both strategic and operational – and how these might influence governance considerations, while consciously refraining from making specific recommendations. The focus here is on a hypothetical deployment rather than governance of the research itself. We first consider the complexity surrounding the design of a deployment scheme, in particular the complicated and difficult decision of what its objective(s) would be, given that different choices for how to deploy will lead to different climate outcomes. Next, we discuss the on-going decisions across multiple timescales, from the sub-annual to the multi-decadal. For example, feedback approaches might effectively manage some uncertainties, but would require frequent adjustments to the solar geoengineering deployment in response to observations. Other decisions would be tied to the inherently slow process of detection and attribution of climate effects in the presence of natural variability. Both of these present challenges to decision-making. These considerations point toward particular governance requirements, including an important role for technical experts – with all the challenges that entails

Borehole Data Package for 1998 Wells Installed at Single-Shell Tank Waste Management Area TX-TY

Four new Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) groundwater monitoring wells were installed at the single-shell tank farm Waste Management Area (WMA) TX-TY during August through November of 1998 in fi,dfillment of Tri-Party Agreement (Eoology 1996) milestone M-24-38. The wells are 299-W1O-26, 299-W14-13, 299-W14-14, and 299-W15-40. Well 299-W1O-26 is located outside the east fence of the TY tank farm and replaces downgradient well299-W1O-18; well 299-W14-13 is located along the east fence near the northeast corner of the TX tank f- and replaces downgradient well 299-W14-12; well 299-W14-14 is located outside the east fence in the south ha.lfof the TX tank fiirm and is anew downgradient well; and well 299-W15-40 is located on the west side of the TX tank farm and is anew upgradient well. The locations of all wells in the monitoring network are shown on Figure 1. The groundwater monitoring plan for WMA TX-TY (Caggiano and Goodwin 1991) describes the hydrogeology of the 200 West Area and WMA TX-TY. An Interim Change Notice to the groundwater monitoring plan provides justification for the new wells. The new wells were constructed to the speciii- cations and requirements described in Washington Administrative Code (WAC) 173-160 and WAC 173-303. This document compiles &fiormation on the drilling and construction, well development pump instal- latio~ groundwater sampling, and sediment testing applicable to wells 299-W1O-26, 299-W14-13, 299-W14-14, and 299-W15-40. Appendix A contains the geologist's log, the Well Construction Sum- mary Repo~ and Well Summary Sheet (as-built diagram); Appendix B contains results of laboratory analyses of particle size distribution, p~ conductivity, calcium carbonate conten~ major cation and anion concentrations from 1:1 water: sediment extracts, and moisture conten~ Appendix C contains geophysical logs; and Appendix D contains the analytical results from groundwater samples obtained during well construction. Aqutier tests (slug tests) were performed on all the new wells after well completions. Results of the aquifer tests will be reported elsewhere. Additiond documentation concerning well construction is on fde with Bechtel Hanfor& Inc., Richland, Washington

Borehole Data Package for Well 299-E33-44 at Single-Shell Tank Waste Management Area B-BX-BY

One new Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) groundwater monitoring well was installed during September 1998 at the single-shell tank farm Waste Management Area (WMA) B-BX-BY. The well is 299-E33-44 and is located east of the BY single-shell tank farm. The well is a new upgradient monitoring well drilled in support of the groundwater assessment program at WMA B-BX-BY. This document is a compilation of information on the drilling and construction well development pump installation, and sediment testing and analyses applicable to well 299-E33-44. Appendix A contains copies of the geologist's log, the Well Construction Summary Report and Well Summary Sheet (as-built diagram); Appendix B contains results of Laboratory analyses completed on samples of sediment from the well and Appendix C contains geophysical logs. An aquifer test (slug test) was done in the well after well completion. Results from the aquifer test will be published elsewhere. Additional documentation concerning well construction is on file with Bechtel Hanford Inc., Richland, Washington

The dynamics of temperature extremes

Changes in the occurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns are not well understood. A study finds that these have been a big factor in observed changes in regional temperature extremes during recent decades

A Retrospective Survey of Research Design and Statistical Analyses in Selected Chinese Medical Journals in 1998 and 2008

BACKGROUND: High quality clinical research not only requires advanced professional knowledge, but also needs sound study design and correct statistical analyses. The number of clinical research articles published in Chinese medical journals has increased immensely in the past decade, but study design quality and statistical analyses have remained suboptimal. The aim of this investigation was to gather evidence on the quality of study design and statistical analyses in clinical researches conducted in China for the first decade of the new millennium. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Ten (10) leading Chinese medical journals were selected and all original articles published in 1998 (N = 1,335) and 2008 (N = 1,578) were thoroughly categorized and reviewed. A well-defined and validated checklist on study design, statistical analyses, results presentation, and interpretation was used for review and evaluation. Main outcomes were the frequencies of different types of study design, error/defect proportion in design and statistical analyses, and implementation of CONSORT in randomized clinical trials. From 1998 to 2008: The error/defect proportion in statistical analyses decreased significantly ( = 12.03, p<0.001), 59.8% (545/1,335) in 1998 compared to 52.2% (664/1,578) in 2008. The overall error/defect proportion of study design also decreased ( = 21.22, p<0.001), 50.9% (680/1,335) compared to 42.40% (669/1,578). In 2008, design with randomized clinical trials remained low in single digit (3.8%, 60/1,578) with two-third showed poor results reporting (defects in 44 papers, 73.3%). Nearly half of the published studies were retrospective in nature, 49.3% (658/1,335) in 1998 compared to 48.2% (761/1,578) in 2008. Decreases in defect proportions were observed in both results presentation ( = 93.26, p<0.001), 92.7% (945/1,019) compared to 78.2% (1023/1,309) and interpretation ( = 27.26, p<0.001), 9.7% (99/1,019) compared to 4.3% (56/1,309), some serious ones persisted. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Chinese medical research seems to have made significant progress regarding statistical analyses, but there remains ample room for improvement regarding study designs. Retrospective clinical studies are the most often used design, whereas randomized clinical trials are rare and often show methodological weaknesses. Urgent implementation of the CONSORT statement is imperative

The relationship between quality of research and citation frequency

BACKGROUND: Citation counts are often regarded as a measure of the utilization and contribution of published articles. The objective of this study is to assess whether statistical reporting and statistical errors in the analysis of the primary outcome are associated with the number of citations received. METHODS: We evaluated all original research articles published in 1996 in four psychiatric journals. The statistical and reporting quality of each paper was assessed and the number of citations received up to 2005 was obtained from the Web of Science database. We then examined whether the number of citations was associated with the quality of the statistical analysis and reporting. RESULTS: A total of 448 research papers were included in the citation analysis. Unclear or inadequate reporting of the research question and primary outcome were not statistically significantly associated with the citation counts. After adjusting for journal, extended description of statistical procedures had a positive effect on the number of citations received. Inappropriate statistical analysis did not affect the number of citations received. Adequate reporting of the primary research question, statistical methods and primary findings were all associated with the journal visibility and prestige. CONCLUSION: In this cohort of published research, measures of reporting quality and appropriate statistical analysis were not associated with the number of citations. The journal in which a study is published appears to be as important as the statistical reporting quality in ensuring dissemination of published medical science

Quality versus quantity of social ties in experimental cooperative networks

Recent studies suggest that allowing individuals to choose their partners can help to maintain cooperation in human social networks; this behaviour can supplement behavioural reciprocity, whereby humans are influenced to cooperate by peer pressure. However, it is unknown how the rate of forming and breaking social ties affects our capacity to cooperate. Here we use a series of online experiments involving 1,529 unique participants embedded in 90 experimental networks, to show that there is a ‘Goldilocks’ effect of network dynamism on cooperation. When the rate of change in social ties is too low, subjects choose to have many ties, even if they attach to defectors. When the rate is too high, cooperators cannot detach from defectors as much as defectors re-attach and, hence, subjects resort to behavioural reciprocity and switch their behaviour to defection. Optimal levels of cooperation are achieved at intermediate levels of change in social ties

A cooperative instinct

Acting on a gut feeling may sometimes lead to poor decisions, but it will usually support the common good, according to a study showing that human intuition favours cooperative, rather than selfish, behaviour

Cooperation and Contagion in Web-Based, Networked Public Goods Experiments

A longstanding idea in the literature on human cooperation is that cooperation should be reinforced when conditional cooperators are more likely to interact. In the context of social networks, this idea implies that cooperation should fare better in highly clustered networks such as cliques than in networks with low clustering such as random networks. To test this hypothesis, we conducted a series of web-based experiments, in which 24 individuals played a local public goods game arranged on one of five network topologies that varied between disconnected cliques and a random regular graph. In contrast with previous theoretical work, we found that network topology had no significant effect on average contributions. This result implies either that individuals are not conditional cooperators, or else that cooperation does not benefit from positive reinforcement between connected neighbors. We then tested both of these possibilities in two subsequent series of experiments in which artificial seed players were introduced, making either full or zero contributions. First, we found that although players did generally behave like conditional cooperators, they were as likely to decrease their contributions in response to low contributing neighbors as they were to increase their contributions in response to high contributing neighbors. Second, we found that positive effects of cooperation were contagious only to direct neighbors in the network. In total we report on 113 human subjects experiments, highlighting the speed, flexibility, and cost-effectiveness of web-based experiments over those conducted in physical labs

Elevated CO2 degassing rates prevented the return of Snowball Earth during the Phanerozoic

The Cryogenian period (~720–635 Ma) is marked by extensive Snowball Earth glaciations. These have previously been linked to CO₂ draw-down, but the severe cold climates of the Cryogenian have never been replicated during the Phanerozoic despite similar, and sometimes more dramatic changes to carbon sinks. Here we quantify the total CO₂ input rate, both by measuring the global length of subduction zones in plate tectonic reconstructions, and by sea-level inversion. Our results indicate that degassing rates were anomalously low during the Late Neoproterozoic, roughly doubled by the Early Phanerozoic, and remained comparatively high until the Cenozoic. Our carbon cycle modelling identifies the Cryogenian as a unique period during which low surface temperature was more easily achieved, and shows that the shift towards greater CO₂ input rates after the Cryogenian helped prevent severe glaciation during the Phanerozoic. Such a shift appears essential for the development of complex animal life