Spatial distribution in Norwegian lemming Lemmus lemmus in relation to the phase of the cycle

Competition between individuals of the same or different species affects spatial distribution of organisms at any given time. Consequently, a species geographical distribution is related to population dynamics through density-dependent processes. Small Arctic rodents are important prey species in many Arctic ecosystems. They commonly show large cyclic fluctuations in abundance offering a potential to investigate how landscape characteristics relates to density-dependent habitat selection. Based on long-term summer trapping data of the Norwegian lemming (Lemmus lemmus) in the Scandinavian Mountain tundra, we applied species distribution modeling to test if the effect of environmental variables on lemming distribution changed in relation to the lemming cycle. Lemmings were less habitat specific during the peak phase, as their distribution was only related to primary productivity. During the increase phase, however, lemming distribution was, in addition, associated with landscape characteristics such as hilly terrain and slopes that are less likely to get flooded. Lemming habitat use varied during the cycle, suggesting density-dependent changes in habitat selection that could be explained by intraspecific competition. We believe that the distribution patterns observed during the increase phase show a stronger ecological signal for habitat preference and that the less specific habitat use during the peak phase is a result of lemmings grazing themselves out of the best habitat as the population grows. Future research on lemming winter distribution would make it possible to investigate the year around strategies of habitat selection in lemmings and a better understanding of a fundamental actor in many Arctic ecosystems.publishedVersio

Declining ecosystem health and the dilution effect

The "dilution effect" implies that where species vary in susceptibility to infection by a pathogen, higher diversity often leads to lower infection prevalence in hosts. For directly transmitted pathogens, non-host species may "dilute" infection directly (1) and indirectly (2). Competitors and predators may (1) alter host behavior to reduce pathogen transmission or (2) reduce host density. In a well-studied system, we tested the dilution of the zoonotic Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) in bank voles (Myodes glareolus) by two competitors and a predator. Our study was based on long-term PUUV infection data (2003-2013) in northern Sweden. The field vole (Microtus agrestis) and the common shrew (Sorex araneus) are bank vole competitors and Tengmalm's owl (Aegolius funereus) is a main predator of bank voles. Infection probability in bank voles decreased when common shrew density increased, suggesting that common shrews reduced PUUV transmission. Field voles suppressed bank vole density in meadows and clear-cuts and indirectly diluted PUUV infection. Further, Tengmalm's owl decline in 1980-2013 may have contributed to higher PUUV infection rates in bank voles in 2003-2013 compared to 1979-1986. Our study provides further evidence for dilution effect and suggests that owls may have an important role in reducing disease risk

Spatial prediction and validation of zoonotic hazard through micro-habitat properties : where does Puumala hantavirus hole - up?

Background: To predict the risk of infectious diseases originating in wildlife, it is important to identify habitats that allow the co-occurrence of pathogens and their hosts. Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) is a directly-transmitted RNA virus that causes hemorrhagic fever in humans, and is carried and transmitted by the bank vole (Myodes glareolus). In northern Sweden, bank voles undergo 3-4 year population cycles, during which their spatial distribution varies greatly. Methods: We used boosted regression trees; a technique inspired by machine learning, on a 10 - year time-series (fall 2003-2013) to develop a spatial predictive model assessing seasonal PUUV hazard using micro-habitat variables in a landscape heavily modified by forestry. We validated the models in an independent study area approx. 200 km away by predicting seasonal presence of infected bank voles in a five-year-period (2007-2010 and 2015). Results: The distribution of PUUV-infected voles varied seasonally and inter-annually. In spring, micro-habitat variables related to cover and food availability in forests predicted both bank vole and infected bank vole presence. In fall, the presence of PUUV-infected voles was generally restricted to spruce forests where cover was abundant, despite the broad landscape distribution of bank voles in general. We hypothesize that the discrepancy in distribution between infected and uninfected hosts in fall, was related to higher survival of PUUV and/ or PUUV-infected voles in the environment, especially where cover is plentiful. Conclusions: Moist and mesic old spruce forests, with abundant cover such as large holes and bilberry shrubs, also providing food, were most likely to harbor infected bank voles. The models developed using long-term and spatially extensive data can be extrapolated to other areas in northern Fennoscandia. To predict the hazard of directly transmitted zoonoses in areas with unknown risk status, models based on micro-habitat variables and developed through machine learning techniques in well-studied systems, could be used

Distribution and seasonal variation of Ljungan virus in bank voles (Myodes glareolus) in Fennoscandia

Ljungan virus (LV) is a picornavirus originally isolated from Swedish bank voles (Myodes glareolus) in 1998. The association of LV with human disease has been debated ever since, but fundamental data on the ecology of the virus are still lacking. Here we present results of the first intensive study on the prevalence of LV in bank voles trapped in Fennoscandia (Sweden and Finland) from 2009-12 as determined by PCR. Using an LV-specific real-time reverse transcriptase PCR, LV was detected in the liver of 73 out of 452 (16.2%) individuals and in 13 out of 17 sampling sites across Sweden and Finland (mean per site prevalence 16%, SE 3%, range 0-50%). We found more infected animals in autumn compared to spring, and lighter and heavier individuals had a higher prevalence than those with intermediate body masses. The result that LV prevalence is also lower in heavier (i.e., older) animals suggests for the first time that LV infection is not persistent in rodents.201