Estimating Individual and Household Reproduction Numbers in an Emerging Epidemic

Reproduction numbers, defined as averages of the number of people infected by a typical case, play a central role in tracking infectious disease outbreaks. The aim of this paper is to develop methods for estimating reproduction numbers which are simple enough that they could be applied with limited data or in real time during an outbreak. I present a new estimator for the individual reproduction number, which describes the state of the epidemic at a point in time rather than tracking individuals over time, and discuss some potential benefits. Then, to capture more of the detail that micro-simulations have shown is important in outbreak dynamics, I analyse a model of transmission within and between households, and develop a method to estimate the household reproduction number, defined as the number of households infected by each infected household. This method is validated by numerical simulations of the spread of influenza and measles using historical data, and estimates are obtained for would-be emerging epidemics of these viruses. I argue that the household reproduction number is useful in assessing the impact of measures that target the household for isolation, quarantine, vaccination or prophylactic treatment, and measures such as social distancing and school or workplace closures which limit between-household transmission, all of which play a key role in current thinking on future infectious disease mitigation

Changes in vegetation and soil characteristics in coastal sand dunes along a gradient of atmospheric nitrogen deposition

A field survey was conducted to detect signals of atmospheric nitrogen (N) in 11 dune systems along a nitrogen deposition gradient in the United Kingdom. In the mobile and semi-fixed dunes, above-ground biomass was positively related to N inputs. This increase was largely due to increased height and cover of Ammophila arenaria. In the long term, this increased biomass may lead to increased organic matter accumulation and consequently accelerated soil development. In the fixed dunes, above ground biomass also showed a positive relationship with N inputs as did soil C : N ratio while soil available N was negatively related to N inputs. Plant species richness was negatively related to N inputs. In the dune slacks, while soil and bulk vegetation parameters showed no relationship with N inputs, cover of Carex arenaria and Hypochaeris radicata increased. Site mean Ellenberg N numbers showed no relationship with N deposition either within habitats or across the whole dataset. Neither abundance-weighting nor inclusion of the Siebel numbers for bryophytes improved the relationship. The survey reveals that the relationships of soil and vegetation with atmospheric N deposition vary between sand dune habitats but, despite this variability, clear correlations with N inputs exist. While this survey cannot establish causality, on the basis of the relationships observed we suggest a critical load range of 10 - 20 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) for coastal sand dunes in the UK

Burden of herpes zoster requiring hospitalization in Spain during a seven-year period (1998–2004)

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>A thorough epidemiological surveillance and a good understanding of the burden of diseases associated to VZV are crucial to asses any potential impact of a prevention strategy. A population-based retrospective epidemiological study to estimate the burden of herpes zoster requiring hospitalization in Spain was conducted.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This study was conducted by using data from the national surveillance system for hospital data, Conjunto Mínimo Básico de Datos (CMBD). Records of all patients admitted to hospital with a diagnosis of herpes zoster (ICD-9-MC codes 053.0–053.9) during a 7-year period (1998–2004) were selected.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 23,584 hospitalizations with a primary or secondary diagnosis of herpes zoster in patients ≥ 30 years of age were identified during the study period. Annually there were 13.4 hospitalizations for herpes zoster per 100,000 population in patients ≥ 30 years of age. The rate increases with age reaching a maximum in persons ≥ 80 years of age (54.3 admissions per 100,000 population >80 years of age). The mean cost of a hospitalization for herpes zoster in adult patients was 3,720 €. The estimated annual cost of hospitalizations for herpes zoster in patients ≥ 30 years of age in Spain was 12,731,954 €.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Herpes zoster imposes an important burden of hospitalizations and result in large cost expenses to the Spanish National Health System, especially in population older than 50 years of age</p

Predicting the environmental suitability and population at risk of podoconiosis in Africa

Podoconiosis is a type of tropical lymphedema that causes massive swelling of the lower limbs. The disease is associated with both economic insecurity, due to long-term morbidity-related loss of productivity, and intense social stigma. The geographical distribution and burden of podoconiosis in Africa are uncertain. We applied statistical modelling to the most comprehensive database compiled to date to predict the environmental suitability of podoconiosis in the African continent. By combining climate and environmental data and overlaying population figures, we predicted the environmental suitability and human population at risk of podoconiosis in Africa. Environmental suitability for podoconiosis was predicted in 29 African countries. In the year 2020, the total population in areas suitable for podoconiosis is estimated at 114.5 million people, (95% uncertainty interval: 109.4–123.9) with 16.9 million in areas suitable for both lymphatic filariasis and podoconiosis. Of the total 5,712 implementation units (typically second administrative-level units, such as districts) defined by the World Health Organization in Africa, 1,655 (29.0%) were found to be environmentally suitable for podoconiosis. The majority of implementation units with high environmental suitability are located in Angola (80, 4.8%), Cameroon (170, 10.3%), the DRC (244, 14.7%), Ethiopia (495, 29.9%), Kenya (217, 13.1%), Uganda (116, 7.0%) and Tanzania (112, 6.8%). Of the 1,655 environmentally suitable implementation units, 960 (58.0%) require more detailed community-level mapping. Our estimates provide key evidence of the population at risk and geographical extent of podoconiosis in Africa, which will help decision-makers to better plan more integrated intervention programmes

Experiences of treatment decision making for young people diagnosed with depressive disorders: a qualitative study in primary care and specialist mental health settings

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Clinical guidelines advocate for the inclusion of young people experiencing depression as well as their caregivers in making decisions about their treatment. Little is known, however, about the degree to which these groups are involved, and whether they want to be. This study sought to explore the experiences and desires of young people and their caregivers in relation to being involved in treatment decision making for depressive disorders.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Semi-structured interviews were carried out with ten young people and five caregivers from one primary care and one specialist mental health service about their experiences and beliefs about treatment decision making. Interviews were audio taped, transcribed verbatim and analysed using thematic analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Experiences of involvement for clients varied and were influenced by clients themselves, clinicians and service settings. For caregivers, experiences of involvement were more homogenous. Desire for involvement varied across clients, and within clients over time; however, most clients wanted to be involved at least some of the time. Both clients and caregivers identified barriers to involvement.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This study supports clinical guidelines that advocate for young people diagnosed with depressive disorders to be involved in treatment decision making. In order to maximise engagement, involvement in treatment decision making should be offered to all clients. Involvement should be negotiated explicitly and repeatedly, as desire for involvement may change over time. Caregiver involvement should be negotiated on an individual basis; however, all caregivers should be supported with information about mental disorders and treatment options.</p

Towards an ethical ecology of international service learning

International Service-Learning (ISL) is a pedagogical activity that seeks to blend student learning with community engagement overseas and the development of a more just society. ISL programmes have grown as educational institutions and non-governmental organisations have sought to achieve the goal of developing ‘global citizens’. However, Service Learning (SL) in general and International Service-Learning (ISL) in particular remain deeply under theorised. These educational initiatives provide policy makers with a practical response to their quest for a ‘Big Society’and present alluring pedagogical approaches for Universities as they react to reforms in Higher Education and seek to enhance both the student learning experience and graduate employability. After outlining the development of ISL in policy and practice, this paper draws on the rich tradition of ISL at one British university to argue that ISL is a form of engagement that has the potential to be ethical in character although we identify a number of factors that militate against this. Our contention is that ISL which promotes rationaland instrumental learning represents a deficit model and we therefore conceptualise ISL here as a transformative learning experience that evinces distinctly aesthetic and even spiritual dimensions. Upon this theoretical groundwork we lay the foundations for conceptualizing ISL in ways that ensure its ethical integrity

The equilibria that allow bacterial persistence in human hosts

We propose that microbes that have developed persistent relationships with human hosts have evolved cross-signalling mechanisms that permit homeostasis that conforms to Nash equilibria and, more specifically, to evolutionarily stable strategies. This implies that a group of highly diverse organisms has evolved within the changing contexts of variation in effective human population size and lifespan, shaping the equilibria achieved, and creating relationships resembling climax communities. We propose that such ecosystems contain nested communities in which equilibrium at one level contributes to homeostasis at another. The model can aid prediction of equilibrium states in the context of further change: widespread immunodeficiency, changing population densities, or extinctions.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/62883/1/nature06198.pd

Acupuncture for the treatment of severe acute pain in Herpes Zoster: results of a nested, open-label, randomized trial in the VZV Pain Study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Data on the potential efficacy of acupuncture (AC) in controlling intense or very intense pain in patients with Herpes Zoster (HZ) has not been so far adequately assessed in comparison with standard pharmacological treatment (ST) by a controlled trial design.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Within the VZV Pescara study, pain was assessed in HZ patients on a Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) and by the McGill Pain Questionnaire (MPQ) both at the beginning and at the end of treatment. Response rates, mean changes in pain intensity, differences in total pain burden with an area-under-the-curve (AUC) method over a 1-year follow-up and differences in the incidence of Post-Herpetic Neuralgia (PHN) were evaluated.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>One hundred and two patients were randomized to receive either AC (n = 52) or ST (n = 50) for 4 weeks. Groups were comparable regarding age, sex, pain intensity at presentation and missed antiviral prescription. Both interventions were largely effective. No significant differences were observed in response rates (81.6% vs 89.2%, p = 0.8), mean reduction of VAS (4.1 +/- 2.3 vs 4.9 +/- 1.9, p = 0.12) and MPQ scores (1.3 +/- 0.9 vs 1.3 +/- 0.9, p = 0.9), incidence of PHN after 3 months (48.4% vs 46.8%, p = 0.5), and mean AUC during follow-up (199 +/- 136 vs 173 +/- 141, p = 0.4). No serious treatment-related adverse event was observed in both groups.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This controlled and randomized trial provides the first evidence of a potential role of AC for the treatment of acute herpetic pain.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>ChiCTR-TRC-10001146.</p

The impact of herpes zoster and post-herpetic neuralgia on quality-of-life

International audienceBACKGROUND: The potentially serious nature of herpes zoster (HZ) and the long-term complication post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN) are often underestimated. One in four people will contract herpes zoster in their lifetime, with this risk rising markedly after the age of 50 years, and affecting one in two in elderly individuals. Pain is the predominant symptom in all phases of HZ disease, being reported by up to 90% of patients. In the acute phase, pain is usually moderate or severe, with patients ranking HZ pain as more intense than post-surgical or labour pains. Up to 20% of patients with HZ develop PHN, which is moderate-to-severe chronic pain persisting for months or years after the acute phase. We review the available data on the effect of HZ and PHN on patients' quality-of-life. DISCUSSION: Findings show that HZ, and particularly PHN, have a major impact on patients' lives across all four health domains--physical, psychological, functional and social. There is a clear correlation between increasing severity of pain and greater interference with daily activities. Non-pain complications such as HZ ophthalmicus can increase the risk of permanent physical impairment. Some elderly individuals may experience a permanent loss of independence after an acute episode of HZ. Current challenges in the management of HZ and PHN are highlighted, including the difficulty in administering antiviral agents before pain becomes established and the limited efficacy of pain treatments in many patients. We discuss the clinical rationale for the HZ vaccine and evidence demonstrating that the vaccine reduces the burden of the disease. The Shingles Prevention Study, conducted among >38,000 people aged >or=60 years old, showed that the HZ vaccine significantly reduces the burden of illness and the incidence of both HZ and PHN. In the entire study population, zoster vaccination reduced the severity of interference of HZ and PHN with activities of daily living by two-thirds, as measured by two questionnaires specific to HZ. SUMMARY: A vaccination scheme may positively impact the incidence and course of HZ disease, thereby improving patients' quality-of-life