Health and economic impact of seasonal influenza mass vaccination strategies in European settings: A mathematical modelling and cost-effectiveness analysis

Free PMC article: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8861572/Introduction: Despite seasonal influenza vaccination programmes in most countries targeting individuals aged ≥ 65 (or ≥ 55) years and high risk-groups, significant disease burden remains. We explored the impact and cost-effectiveness of 27 vaccination programmes targeting the elderly and/or children in eight European settings (n = 205.8 million). Methods: We used an age-structured dynamic-transmission model to infer age- and (sub-)type-specific seasonal influenza virus infections calibrated to England, France, Ireland, Navarra, The Netherlands, Portugal, Scotland, and Spain between 2010/11 and 2017/18. The base-case vaccination scenario consisted of non-adjuvanted, non-high dose trivalent vaccines (TV) and no universal paediatric vaccination. We explored i) moving the elderly to "improved" (i.e., adjuvanted or high-dose) trivalent vaccines (iTV) or non-adjuvanted non-high-dose quadrivalent vaccines (QV); ii) adopting mass paediatric vaccination with TV or QV; and iii) combining the elderly and paediatric strategies. We estimated setting-specific costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained from the healthcare perspective, and discounted QALYs at 3.0%. Results: In the elderly, the estimated numbers of infection per 100,000 population are reduced by a median of 261.5 (range across settings: 154.4, 475.7) when moving the elderly to iTV and by 150.8 (77.6, 262.3) when moving them to QV. Through indirect protection, adopting mass paediatric programmes with 25% uptake achieves similar reductions in the elderly of 233.6 using TV (range: 58.9, 425.6) or 266.5 using QV (65.7, 477.9), with substantial health gains from averted infections across ages. At €35,000/QALY gained, moving the elderly to iTV plus adopting mass paediatric QV programmes provides the highest mean net benefits and probabilities of being cost-effective in all settings and paediatric coverage levels. Conclusion: Given the direct and indirect protection, and depending on the vaccine prices, model results support a combination of having moved the elderly to an improved vaccine and adopting universal paediatric vaccination programmes across the European settings.Highlights: Seasonal influenza vaccine programmes usually target at-risk and older individuals; We used an age-structured dynamic-transmission model for eight European settings; Older people benefit from adjuvanted or high-dose trivalent or quadrivalent vaccines; Adopting mass paediatric influenza vaccination is also likely to be cost-effective; Results rest on vaccine costs, willingness to vaccinate and unknown long-term effects.I-MOVE+ (Integrated Monitoring of Vaccines in Europe) project, received a grant from the European Commission Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement No 634446).info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Healthy elderly and influenza vaccination

In many countries, those at risk for complications due to influenza are invited for influenza vaccination, to prevent serious consequences for themselves and those around them. However, vaccination rates are decreasing. The first invitation for vaccination may provide an opportunity to convey ample information about the (dis)advantages of vaccination. We aimed to identify subgroups less likely to be vaccinated after their first invitation. Using data from 87 general practices participating in NIVEL Primary Care Database, we selected persons invited for vaccination for the first time because of their 60th birthday. Of 3.238 included persons, 78% were not vaccinated after their first invitation and in the vast majority (84%) this decision remained consistent over the next years. Men and those with fewer GP contacts were less likely to be vaccinated. This latter group is not easily reached by the GP, so maybe other ways should be considered to convey information about influenza vaccination

The relationship of modern health worries to non-specific physical symptoms and perceived environmental sensitivity : A study combining self-reported and general practice data

Objective The present study investigates the association of modern health worries (MHW) with self-reported as well as general practitioner (GP)-registered non-specific physical symptoms (NSPS), medication use, alternative therapy consultations, sleep quality and quality of life. The interrelation between MHW, general environmental sensitivity and the aforementioned outcomes is also explored. Methods Self-reported questionnaires and data from electronic medical records from 21 general practices in The Netherlands were combined in a sample of 5933 adult participants. Results The majority of the participants reported increased worries about potential health effects from environmental exposures. The highest worry scores were reported by people who perceived themselves as more vulnerable to environmental stressors. After adjustment for socio-demographic characteristics and diagnosed psychiatric morbidity, higher MHW were significantly associated with increased self-reported prevalence and duration of NSPS, symptom-related healthcare utilization, GP-registered NSPS, alternative therapy consultations and lower sleep quality and quality of life. These associations were statistically mediated by perceived environmental sensitivity. No association was observed between worries and GP-registered medication prescriptions. Conclusion Modern health worries are very common in the general population. They are associated with self-reported as well as clinically defined NSPS and as such might play a key role in the process of developing and maintaining environmental sensitivities and related symptoms. A large cross-cultural longitudinal study would help to determine important aspects such as temporal precedence and stability of MHW and the relevant psychosocial context within which symptomatic conditions occur

Impact of influenza vaccination in the Netherlands, 2007-2016: Vaccinees consult their general practitioner for clinically diagnosed influenza, acute respiratory infections, and pneumonia more often than non-vaccinees.

INTRODUCTION: We aimed to develop an innovative population-based method to estimate the health effect of influenza vaccination based on electronic medical records collected within a general practitioner (GP)-based influenza surveillance system in the Netherlands. METHODS: In each season between 2006/07 and 2015/16, we fitted multilevel Poisson regression models to compare GP consultation rates for clinically diagnosed influenza, acute respiratory infections (ARI), pneumonia, and lower back pain (as a control) between vaccinated vs. unvaccinated individuals. Season-specific relative risks and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were pooled into summary risk ratio (SRR) through random-effects meta-analysis models. Analyses were stratified by patient age (<45, 45–59, 60–74, ≥75 years) and medical indication for the vaccine (any vs. none, subjects aged ≤60 years only). RESULTS: Overall, 12.6% and 21.4% of study subjects were vaccinated because of their age only or because of an underlying medical condition. Vaccine uptake declined over time, especially among subjects aged ≤74 years with medical indications for vaccination. Vaccinated individuals had significantly higher GP consultation rates for clinically diagnosed influenza (SRR 1.24, 95% CI 1.12–1.38, p-value <0.001), ARI (SRR 1.33, 95% CI 1.27–1.39, p-value <0.001), pneumonia (SRR 1.27, 95% CI 1.19–1.36, p-value <0.001), and lower back pain (SRR 1.21, 95% CI 1.14–1.28, p-value <0.001) compared to unvaccinated individuals. DISCUSSION: Contrary to expectations, influenza vaccinees have GP consultation rates for clinically diagnosed influenza, ARI and pneumonia that are 24–33% higher compared to unvaccinated individuals. The lower back pain finding suggests that the increase in consultation rates is partially caused by confounding. Importantly, considering the data are not laboratory-confirmed, our results cannot be linked directly to influenza, but only to respiratory illnesses in general

Impact of influenza vaccination on GP-diagnosed COVID-19 and all-cause mortality:a Dutch cohort study

OBJECTIVES: As clinical presentation and complications of both viruses overlap, it was hypothesised that influenza vaccination was associated with lower general practitioner (GP)-diagnosed COVID-19 rates and lower all-cause mortality rates. STUDY DESIGN: From a primary care population-based cohort in the Netherlands, GP-diagnosed COVID-19 (between 10 March and 22 November 2020) and all-cause mortality events (between 30 December 2019 and 22 November 2020) were recorded. 223 580 persons were included, representing the influenza vaccination 2019 target group (all aged ≥60 years, and those <60 years with a medical indication). Proportional hazards regression analyses evaluated associations between influenza vaccination in 2019 and two outcomes: GP-diagnosed COVID-19 and all-cause mortality. Covariables were sex, age, comorbidities and number of acute respiratory infection primary care consultations in 2019. RESULTS: A slightly positive association (HR 1.15; 95% CI 1.08 to 1.22) was found between influenza vaccination in 2019 and GP-diagnosed COVID-19, after adjusting for covariables. A slightly protective effect for all-cause mortality rates (HR 0.90; 95% CI 0.83 to 0.97) was found for influenza vaccination, after adjusting for covariables. A subgroup analysis among GP-diagnosed COVID-19 cases showed no significant association between influenza vaccination in 2019 and all-cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Our hypothesis of a possibly negative association between influenza vaccination in 2019 and GP-diagnosed COVID-19 was not confirmed as we found a slightly positive association. A slightly protective effect on all-cause mortality was found after influenza vaccination, possibly by a wider, overall protective effect on health. Future research designs should include test-confirmed COVID-19 cases and controls, adjustments for behavioural, socioeconomic and ethnic factors and validated cause-specific mortality cases

Impact of influenza vaccination programmes among the elderly population on primary care, Portugal, Spain and the Netherlands: 2015/16 to 2017/18 influenza seasons.

BackgroundTo increase the acceptability of influenza vaccine, it is important to quantify the overall benefits of the vaccination programme.AimTo assess the impact of influenza vaccination in Portugal, Spain and the Netherlands, we estimated the number of medically attended influenza-confirmed cases (MAICC) in primary care averted in the seasons 2015/16 to 2017/18 among those ≥ 65 years.MethodsWe used an ecological approach to estimate vaccination impact. We compared the number of observed MAICC (n) to the estimated number that would have occurred without the vaccination programme (N). To estimate N, we used: (i) MAICC estimated from influenza surveillance systems, (ii) vaccine coverage, (iii) pooled (sub)type-specific influenza vaccine effectiveness estimates for seasons 2015/16 to 2017/18, weighted by the proportion of virus circulation in each season and country. We estimated the number of MAICC averted (NAE) and the prevented fraction (PF) by the vaccination programme.ResultsThe annual average of NAE in the population ≥ 65 years was 33, 58 and 204 MAICC per 100,000 in Portugal, Spain and the Netherlands, respectively. On average, influenza vaccination prevented 10.7%, 10.9% and 14.2% of potential influenza MAICC each season in these countries. The lowest PF was in 2016/17 (4.9-6.1%) with an NAE ranging from 24 to 69 per 100,000.ConclusionsOur results suggest that influenza vaccination programmes reduced a substantial number of MAICC. Together with studies on hospitalisations and deaths averted by influenza vaccination programmes, this will contribute to the evaluation of the impact of vaccination strategies and strengthen public health communication.We thank all participating sentinel general practitioners and their patients, as well as the epidemiologists and the laboratory teams who contributed to the study. This work was supported by European Commission Horizon 2020 programme [grant agreement No 634446].S

Using web search queries to monitor influenza-like illness: an exploratory retrospective analysis, Netherlands, 2017/18 influenza season

Background Despite the early development of Google Flu Trends in 2009, standards for digital epidemiology methods have not been established and research from European countries is scarce. Aim In this article, we study the use of web search queries to monitor influenza-like illness (ILI) rates in the Netherlands in real time. Methods In this retrospective analysis, we simulated the weekly use of a prediction model for estimating the then-current ILI incidence across the 2017/18 influenza season solely based on Google search query data. We used weekly ILI data as reported to The European Surveillance System (TESSY) each week, and we removed the then-last 4 weeks from our dataset. We then fitted a prediction model based on the then-most-recent search query data from Google Trends to fill the 4-week gap (‘Nowcasting’). Lasso regression, in combination with cross-validation, was applied to select predictors and to fit the 52 models, one for each week of the season. Results The models provided accurate predictions with a mean and maximum absolute error of 1.40 (95% confidence interval: 1.09–1.75) and 6.36 per 10,000 population. The onset, peak and end of the epidemic were predicted with an error of 1, 3 and 2 weeks, respectively. The number of search terms retained as predictors ranged from three to five, with one keyword, ‘griep’ (‘flu’), having the most weight in all models. Discussion This study demonstrates the feasibility of accurate, real-time ILI incidence predictions in the Netherlands using Google search query data

Increasing incidence of reported scabies infestations in the Netherlands, 2011-2021.

INTRODUCTION: Several Public Health Services and general practitioners in the Netherlands observed an increase in scabies in the Netherlands. Since individual cases of scabies are not notifiable in the Netherlands, the epidemiological situation is mostly unknown. To investigate the scabies incidence in the Netherlands, we described the epidemiology of scabies between 2011 and 2021. METHODS: Two national data sources were analysed descriptively. One data source obtained incidence data of scabies (per 1,000 persons) of persons consulting in primary care from 2011–2020. The other data source captured the number of prescribed scabicides in the Netherlands from 2011–2021. To describe the correlation between the incidence of diagnoses and the number of dispensations between 2011 and 2020, we calculated a correlation coefficient. RESULTS: The incidence of reported scabies has increased by more than threefold the last decade (2011–2020), mainly affecting adolescents and (young) adults. This was also clearly reflected in the fivefold increase in dispensations of scabicide medication during 2011–2021. The incidence and dispensations were at an all-time high in 2021. We found a strong correlation between the reported incidence and the number of dispensations between 2011 and 2020. CONCLUSIONS: More awareness on early diagnosis, proper treatment and treatment of close contacts is needed