Real-time imputation of missing predictor values in clinical practice

Use of prediction models is widely recommended by clinical guidelines, but usually requires complete information on all predictors that is not always available in daily practice. We describe two methods for real-time handling of missing predictor values when using prediction models in practice. We compare the widely used method of mean imputation (M-imp) to a method that personalizes the imputations by taking advantage of the observed patient characteristics. These characteristics may include both prediction model variables and other characteristics (auxiliary variables). The method was implemented using imputation from a joint multivariate normal model of the patient characteristics (joint modeling imputation; JMI). Data from two different cardiovascular cohorts with cardiovascular predictors and outcome were used to evaluate the real-time imputation methods. We quantified the prediction model's overall performance (mean squared error (MSE) of linear predictor), discrimination (c-index), calibration (intercept and slope) and net benefit (decision curve analysis). When compared with mean imputation, JMI substantially improved the MSE (0.10 vs. 0.13), c-index (0.70 vs 0.68) and calibration (calibration-in-the-large: 0.04 vs. 0.06; calibration slope: 1.01 vs. 0.92), especially when incorporating auxiliary variables. When the imputation method was based on an external cohort, calibration deteriorated, but discrimination remained similar. We recommend JMI with auxiliary variables for real-time imputation of missing values, and to update imputation models when implementing them in new settings or (sub)populations.Comment: 17 pages, 6 figures, to be published in European Heart Journal - Digital Health, accepted for MEMTAB 2020 conferenc

Study of behaviour on simulated daylight ageing of artists¿ acrylic and poly(vinyl acetate) paint films

[EN] This work proposes a multi-method approach that combines advanced microscopy (SEM/EDX, AFM) and spectroscopy (UV-vis and FTIR) techniques. This approach not only characterises the behaviour of the additives of two commercial poly(vinyl acetate) (PVAc) and acrylic emulsion paints but also simultaneously characterises the changes in chemical composition and morphology observed in the paint films as a result of ageing due to the paints being exposed to an intense source of simulated daylight. In parallel, a series of mechanical tests were performed that correlate the chemical changes in composition and the changes observed in the films' mechanical properties. This work was a comparative study between both types of acrylic and PVAc paints. The results obtained are of great interest for the modern paint conservation field as they provide valuable information on the mid- and long-term behaviours of these synthetic paints.Financial support is gratefully acknowledged from the Spanish "I+D+I MICINN" project CTQ2008-06727-C03-01/BQU supported by ERDEF funds and from the "Generalitat Valenciana" I+D project ACOMP/2009/171 and the AP2006-3223 project ascribed to the Predoctoral Stages Programme of Universitary Researchers in Spanish Universities and Research Centres from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (MICINN). The authors wish to thank Mr. Manuel Planes i Insausti and Dr. Jose Luis Moya Lopez, the technical supervisors responsible for the Electron Microscopy Service at the Polytechnic University of Valencia.Domenech Carbo, MT.; Silva, MF.; Aura Castro, E.; Fuster López, L.; Kröner ., SU.; Martínez Bazán, ML.; Mas Barberà, X.... (2011). Study of behaviour on simulated daylight ageing of artists¿ acrylic and poly(vinyl acetate) paint films. Analytical and Bioanalytical Chemistry. 399:2921-2937. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00216-010-4294-3S2921293739

Extraforaminal ligament attachments of the thoracic spinal nerves in humans

An anatomical study of the extraforaminal attachments of the thoracic spinal nerves was performed using human spinal columns. The objectives of the study are to identify and describe the existence of ligamentous structures at each thoracic level that attach spinal nerves to structures at the extraforaminal region. During the last 120 years, several mechanisms have been described to protect the spinal nerve against traction. All the described structures were located inside the spinal canal proximal to the intervertebral foramen. Ligaments with a comparable function just outside the intervertebral foramen are mentioned ephemerally. No studies are available about ligamentous attachments of thoracic spinal nerves to the spine. Five embalmed human thoracic spines (Th2–Th11) were dissected. Bilaterally, the extraforaminal region was dissected to describe and measure anatomical structures and their relationships with the thoracic spinal nerves. Histology was done at the sites of attachment of the ligaments to the nerves and along the ligaments. The thoracic spinal nerves are attached to the transverse process of the vertebrae cranial and caudal to the intervertebral foramen. The ligaments consist mainly of collagenous fibers. In conclusion, at the thoracic level, direct ligamentous connections exist between extraforaminal thoracic spinal nerves and nearby structures. They may serve as a protective mechanism against traction and compression of the nerves by positioning the nerve in the intervertebral foramen

Sexually Selected Infanticide in a Polygynous Bat

Background: Adult individuals of many species kill unrelated conspecific infants for several adaptive reasons ranging from predation or resource competition to the prevention of misdirected parental care. Moreover, infanticide can increase the reproductive success of the aggressor by killing the offspring of competitors and thereafter mating with the victimized females. This sexually selected infanticide predominantly occurs in polygynous species, with convincing evidence for primates, carnivores, equids, and rodents. Evidence for bats was predicted but lacking. Methodology/Principal Findings: Here we report the first case, to our knowledge, of sexually selected infanticide in a bat, the polygynous white-throated round-eared bat, Lophostoma silvicolum. Behavioral studies in a free-living population revealed that an adult male repeatedly attacked and injured the pups of two females belonging to his harem, ultimately causing the death of one pup. The infanticidal male subsequently mated with the mother of the victimized pup and this copulation occurred earlier than any other in his harem. Conclusions/Significance: Our findings indicate that sexually selected infanticide is more widespread than previously thought, adding bats as a new taxon performing this strategy. Future work on other bats, especially polygynous species in the tropics, has great potential to investigate the selective pressures influencing the evolution of sexually selecte

Neural Circuits Underlying Rodent Sociality: A Comparative Approach

All mammals begin life in social groups, but for some species, social relationships persist and develop throughout the course of an individual’s life. Research in multiple rodent species provides evidence of relatively conserved circuitry underlying social behaviors and processes such as social recognition and memory, social reward, and social approach/avoidance. Species exhibiting different complex social behaviors and social systems (such as social monogamy or familiarity preferences) can be characterized in part by when and how they display specific social behaviors. Prairie and meadow voles are closely related species that exhibit similarly selective peer preferences but different mating systems, aiding direct comparison of the mechanisms underlying affiliative behavior. This chapter draws on research in voles as well as other rodents to explore the mechanisms involved in individual social behavior processes, as well as specific complex social patterns. Contrasts between vole species exemplify how the laboratory study of diverse species improves our understanding of the mechanisms underlying social behavior. We identify several additional rodent species whose interesting social structures and available ecological and behavioral field data make them good candidates for study. New techniques and integration across laboratory and field settings will provide exciting opportunities for future mechanistic work in non-model species

Predation risk and foraging behavior of the hoary marmot in Alaska

I observed hoary marmots for three field seasons to determine how the distribution of food and the risk of predation influenced marmots' foraging behavior. I quantified the amount of time Marmota caligata foraged in different patches of alpine meadows and assessed the distribution and abundance of vegetation eaten by marmots in these meadows. Because marmots dig burrows and run to them when attacked by predators, marmot-toburrow distance provided an index of predation risk that could be specified for different meadow patches.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/46873/1/265_2004_Article_BF00292992.pd

Imaging cytoplasmic cAMP in mouse brainstem neurons

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>cAMP is an ubiquitous second messenger mediating various neuronal functions, often as a consequence of increased intracellular Ca²⁺levels. While imaging of calcium is commonly used in neuroscience applications, probing for cAMP levels has not yet been performed in living vertebrate neuronal tissue before.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Using a strictly neuron-restricted promoter we virally transduced neurons in the organotypic brainstem slices which contained pre-Bötzinger complex, constituting the rhythm-generating part of the respiratory network. Fluorescent cAMP sensor Epac1-camps was expressed both in neuronal cell bodies and neurites, allowing us to measure intracellular distribution of cAMP, its absolute levels and time-dependent changes in response to physiological stimuli. We recorded [cAMP]_ichanges in the micromolar range after modulation of adenylate cyclase, inhibition of phosphodiesterase and activation of G-protein-coupled metabotropic receptors. [cAMP]_ilevels increased after membrane depolarisation and release of Ca²⁺from internal stores. The effects developed slowly and reached their maximum after transient [Ca²⁺]_ielevations subsided. Ca²⁺-dependent [cAMP]_itransients were suppressed after blockade of adenylate cyclase with 0.1 mM adenylate cyclase inhibitor 2'5'-dideoxyadenosine and potentiated after inhibiting phosphodiesterase with isobutylmethylxanthine and rolipram. During paired stimulations, the second depolarisation and Ca²⁺release evoked bigger cAMP responses. These effects were abolished after inhibition of protein kinase A with H-89 pointing to the important role of phosphorylation of calcium channels in the potentiation of [cAMP]_itransients.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>We constructed and characterized a neuron-specific cAMP probe based on Epac1-camps. Using viral gene transfer we showed its efficient expression in organotypic brainstem preparations. Strong fluorescence, resistance to photobleaching and possibility of direct estimation of [cAMP] levels using dual wavelength measurements make the probe useful in studies of neurons and the mechanisms of their plasticity. Epac1-camps was applied to examine the crosstalk between Ca²⁺and cAMP signalling and revealed a synergism of actions of these two second messengers.</p

Increased noise levels have different impacts on the anti-predator behaviour of two sympatric fish species.

types: Journal ArticleCopyright: © 2014 Voellmy et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.Animals must avoid predation to survive and reproduce, and there is increasing evidence that man-made (anthropogenic) factors can influence predator-prey relationships. Anthropogenic noise has been shown to have a variety of effects on many species, but work investigating the impact on anti-predator behaviour is rare. In this laboratory study, we examined how additional noise (playback of field recordings of a ship passing through a harbour), compared with control conditions (playback of recordings from the same harbours without ship noise), affected responses to a visual predatory stimulus. We compared the anti-predator behaviour of two sympatric fish species, the three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) and the European minnow (Phoxinus phoxinus), which share similar feeding and predator ecologies, but differ in their body armour. Effects of additional-noise playbacks differed between species: sticklebacks responded significantly more quickly to the visual predatory stimulus during additional-noise playbacks than during control conditions, while minnows exhibited no significant change in their response latency. Our results suggest that elevated noise levels have the potential to affect anti-predator behaviour of different species in different ways. Future field-based experiments are needed to confirm whether this effect and the interspecific difference exist in relation to real-world noise sources, and to determine survival and population consequences.University of BristolBasler Stiftung für Biologische ForschungDefr

What Stops Designers from Designing Sustainable Packaging?—A Review of Eco-design Tools with Regard to Packaging Design

Packaging has caused much waste and its sustainability has received much attention in the past decades. Designers have made efforts to mitigate environmental impacts of packaging. However, many packaging designs are still far from achieving their sustainability goals. The purpose of this study is to perform a literature review of the principal design methods and tools for sustainable packaging published over the last twenty years. The objective is to understand the main obstacles that limit their effective implementation in the packaging design process. This study develops a sustainable packaging design and development model and proposes criteria for accessing packaging tools and methods. This study has found that to achieve sustainable design, many tools have limitations in demonstrating usage and balancing trade-off situations. Most of the tools focus on defining problems rather than suggesting possible solutions

Variance in Centrality within Rock Hyrax Social Networks Predicts Adult Longevity

BACKGROUND: In communal mammals the levels of social interaction among group members vary considerably. In recent years, biologists have realized that within-group interactions may affect survival of the group members. Several recent studies have demonstrated that the social integration of adult females is positively associated with infant survival, and female longevity is affected by the strength and stability of the individual social bonds. Our aim was to determine the social factors that influence adult longevity in social mammals. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: As a model system, we studied the social rock hyrax (Procavia capensis), a plural breeder with low reproductive skew, whose groups are mainly composed of females. We applied network theory using 11 years of behavioral data to quantify the centrality of individuals within groups, and found adult longevity to be inversely correlated to the variance in centrality. In other words, animals in groups with more equal associations lived longer. Individual centrality was not correlated with longevity, implying that social tension may affect all group members and not only the weakest or less connected ones. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our novel findings support previous studies emphasizing the adaptive value of social associations and the consequences of inequality among adults within social groups. However, contrary to previous studies, we suggest that it is not the number or strength of associations that an adult individual has (i.e. centrality) that is important, but the overall configuration of social relationships within the group (i.e. centrality SD) that is a key factor in influencing longevity