Evaluating Modeling and Validation Strategies for Tooth Loss

Prediction models learn patterns from available data (training) and are then validated on new data (testing). Prediction modeling is increasingly common in dental research. We aimed to evaluate how different model development and validation steps affect the predictive performance of tooth loss prediction models of patients with periodontitis. Two independent cohorts (627 patients, 11,651 teeth) were followed over a mean ± SD 18.2 ± 5.6 y (Kiel cohort) and 6.6 ± 2.9 y (Greifswald cohort). Tooth loss and 10 patient- and tooth-level predictors were recorded. The impact of different model development and validation steps was evaluated: 1) model complexity (logistic regression, recursive partitioning, random forest, extreme gradient boosting), 2) sample size (full data set or 10%, 25%, or 75% of cases dropped at random), 3) prediction periods (maximum 10, 15, or 20 y or uncensored), and 4) validation schemes (internal or external by centers/time). Tooth loss was generally a rare event (880 teeth were lost). All models showed limited sensitivity but high specificity. Patients' age and tooth loss at baseline as well as probing pocket depths showed high variable importance. More complex models (random forest, extreme gradient boosting) had no consistent advantages over simpler ones (logistic regression, recursive partitioning). Internal validation (in sample) overestimated the predictive power (area under the curve up to 0.90), while external validation (out of sample) found lower areas under the curve (range 0.62 to 0.82). Reducing the sample size decreased the predictive power, particularly for more complex models. Censoring the prediction period had only limited impact. When the model was trained in one period and tested in another, model outcomes were similar to the base case, indicating temporal validation as a valid option. No model showed higher accuracy than the no-information rate. In conclusion, none of the developed models would be useful in a clinical setting, despite high accuracy. During modeling, rigorous development and external validation should be applied and reported accordingly

Antibody responses in furunculosis patients vaccinated with autologous formalin-killed Staphylococcus aureus

Autologous vaccines (short: autovaccines) have been used since the beginning of the 20th century to treat chronic staphylococcal infections, but their mechanisms of action are still obscure. This prospective pilot study involved four patients with furunculosis who were vaccinated with autologous formalin-killed Staphylococcus aureus cells. Vaccines were individually prepared from the infecting S. aureus strain and repeatedly injected subcutaneously in increasing doses over several months. We characterized the virulence gene repertoire and spa genotype of the infecting and colonising S. aureus strains. Serum antibody responses to secreted and surface-bound bacterial antigens were determined by two-dimensional immunoblotting and flow-cytometry based assays (Luminex®). All patients reported clinical improvement. Molecular characterization showed that all strains isolated from one patient over time belonged to the same S. aureus clone. Already before treatment, there was robust antibody binding to a broad range of staphylococcal antigens. Autovaccination moderately boosted the IgG response to extracellular antigens in two patients, while the antibody response of the other two patients was not affected. Similarly, vaccination moderately enhanced the antibody response against some staphylococcal surface proteins, e.g. ClfA, ClfB, SdrD and SdrE. In summary, autovaccination only slightly boosted the pre-existing serum antibody response, predominantly to bacterial surface antigens

Fluctuations and differential contraction during regeneration of Hydra vulgaris tissue toroids

We studied regenerating bilayered tissue toroids dissected from Hydra vulgaris polyps and relate our macroscopic observations to the dynamics of force-generating mesoscopic cytoskeletal structures. Tissue fragments undergo a specific toroid-spheroid folding process leading to complete regeneration towards a new organism. The time scale of folding is too fast for biochemical signalling or morphogenetic gradients which forced us to assume purely mechanical self-organization. The initial pattern selection dynamics was studied by embedding toroids into hydro-gels allowing us to observe the deformation modes over longer periods of time. We found increasing mechanical fluctuations which break the toroidal symmetry and discuss the evolution of their power spectra for various gel stiffnesses. Our observations are related to single cell studies which explain the mechanical feasibility of the folding process. In addition, we observed switching of cells from a tissue bound to a migrating state after folding failure as well as in tissue injury. We found a supra-cellular actin ring assembled along the toroid's inner edge. Its contraction can lead to the observed folding dynamics as we could confirm by finite element simulations. This actin ring in the inner cell layer is assembled by myosin- driven length fluctuations of supra-cellular {\alpha}-actin structures (myonemes) in the outer cell-layer.Comment: 19 pages and 8 figures, submitted to New Journal of Physic

Confocal Laser Scanning Microscopy for Detection of Schistosoma mansoni Eggs in the Gut of Mice

Background: The gold standard for diagnosing Schistosoma mansoni infections is the detection of eggs from stool or biopsy specimens. The viability of collected eggs can be tested by the miracidium hatching procedure. Direct detection methods are often limited in patients with light or early infections, whereas serological tests and PCR methods fail to differentiate between an inactive and persistent infection and between schistosomal species. Recently, confocal laser scanning microscopy (CLSM) has been introduced as a diagnostic tool in several fields of medicine. In this study we evaluated CLSM for the detection of viable eggs of S. mansoni directly within the gut of infected mice. Methodology/Principal Findings: The confocal laser scanning microscope used in this study is based on the Heidelberg Retina Tomograph II scanning laser system in combination with the Rostock Cornea Module (image modality 1) or a rigid endoscope (image modality 2). Colon sections of five infected mice were examined with image modalities 1 and 2 for schistosomal eggs. Afterwards a biopsy specimen was taken from each colon section and examined by bright-field microscopy. Visualised eggs were counted and classified in terms of viability status. Conclusions/Significance: We were able to show that CLSM visualises eggs directly within the gut and permits discrimination of schistosomal species and determination of egg viability. Thus, CLSM may be a suitable non-invasive too

Do Genetic Markers of Inflammation Modify the Relationship between Periodontitis and Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease? Findings from the SHIP Study

An association between periodontitis and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has been reported by experimental animal and epidemiologic studies. This study investigated whether circulating levels of serum C-reactive protein (CRP) and a weighted genetic CRP score representing markers of inflammatory burden modify the association between periodontitis and NAFLD. Data came from 2,481 participants of the Study of Health in Pomerania who attended baseline examination that occurred between 1997 and 2001. Periodontitis was defined as the percentage of sites (0%, 3 mg/L. Periodontitis was positively associated with higher prevalence odds of NAFLD, and this relationship was modified by serum CRP levels

Effect of Periodontal Treatment on HbA1c among Patients with Prediabetes

Evidence is limited regarding whether periodontal treatment improves hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) among people with prediabetes and periodontal disease, and it is unknown whether improvement of metabolic status persists >3 mo. In an exploratory post hoc analysis of the multicenter randomized controlled trial “Antibiotika und Parodontitis” (Antibiotics and Periodontitis)—a prospective, stratified, double-blind study—we assessed whether nonsurgical periodontal treatment with or without an adjunctive systemic antibiotic treatment affects HbA1c and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) levels among periodontitis patients with normal HbA1c (≤5.7%, n = 218), prediabetes (5.7% 1 mm in both groups. In the normal HbA1c group, HbA1c values remained unchanged at 5.0% (95% CI, 4.9% to 6.1%) during the observation period. Among periodontitis patients with prediabetes, HbA1c decreased from 5.9% (95% CI, 5.9% to 6.0%) to 5.4% (95% CI, 5.3% to 5.5%) at 15.5 mo and increased to 5.6% (95% CI, 5.4% to 5.7%) after 27.5 mo. At 27.5 mo, 46% of periodontitis patients with prediabetes had normal HbA1c levels, whereas 47.9% remained unchanged and 6.3% progressed to diabetes. Median hsCRP values were reduced in the normal HbA1c and prediabetes groups from 1.2 and 1.4 mg/L to 0.7 and 0.7 mg/L, respectively. Nonsurgical periodontal treatment may improve blood glucose values among periodontitis patients with prediabetes (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00707369)

Staphylococcus aureus nasal colonization among dental health care workers in Northern Germany (StaphDent study)

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) can colonize dental patients and students, however, studies on the prevalence of MRSA and methicillin-susceptible S. aureus (MSSA) among dental health care workers (DHCW) including use of personal protective equipment (PPE) are scarce. We conducted an observational study (StaphDent study) to (I) determine the prevalence of MRSA and MSSA colonization in DHCW in the region of Mecklenburg Western-Pomerania, Germany, (II) resolve the MSSA population structure to gain hints on possible transmission events between co-workers, and (III) clarify use of PPE. Nasal swabs were obtained from dentists (n?=?149), dental assistants (n?=?297) and other dental practice staff (n?=?38). Clonal relatedness of MSSA isolates was investigated using spa typing and, in some cases, whole genome sequencing (WGS). PPE use was assessed by questionnaire. While 22.3% (108/485) of the participants were colonized with MSSA, MRSA was not detected. MSSA prevalence was not associated with size of dental practices, gender, age, or duration of employment. The identified 61 spa types grouped into 17 clonal complexes and four sequence types. Most spa types (n?=?51) were identified only once. In ten dental practices one spa type occurred twice. WGS data analysis confirmed a close clonal relationship for 4/10 isolate pairs. PPE was regularly used by most dentists and assistants. To conclude, the failure to recover MRSA from DHCW reflects the low MRSA prevalence in this region. Widespread PPE use suggests adherence to routine hygiene protocols. Compared to other regional HCW MRSA rates the consequent usage of PPE seems to be protective

Periodontitis and Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease, a population-based cohort investigation in the Study of Health in Pomerania

Background: Non‐alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) affects 20%–30% of adults with risk factors like obesity and insulin resistance putatively acting through chronic low‐grade inflammation. Because periodontitis elicits low‐grade inflammation, we hypothesized that it could contribute to NAFLD occurrence. Objective: To investigate epidemiologic associations between periodontitis and the incidence of NAFLD among 2,623 participants of the Study of Health in Pomerania. Methods: Periodontitis at baseline was defined as the percentage of sites (0%, <30%, ≥30%) with (i) clinical attachment level (CAL) ≥3 mm; (ii) probing pocket depth (PD) ≥4 mm. Incident NAFLD was defined as a significant increase in liver echogenicity on ultrasound relative to the kidneys, with the diaphragm indistinct or the echogenic walls of the portal veins invisible.Results: After a median 7.7 years of follow‐up, 605 incident NAFLD cases occurred at a rate of 32.5 cases per 1,000 person‐years. Relative to participants without CAL ≥3 mm, NAFLD incidence was elevated slightly in participants with <30% of sites affected and moderately in participants with ≥30% of sites affected (multivariable‐adjusted incidence rate ratio = 1.28, 95% CI, 0.84, 1.95 and 1.60, 95% CI, 1.05–2.43), respectively. A similar dose–response relationship was not observed for PD. Conclusion: History of periodontitis may be a risk factor for NAFLD

Heterogeneity of the humoral immune response following Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia

Expanding knowledge on the humoral immune response in Staphylococcus aureus-infected patients is a mandatory step in the development of vaccines and immunotherapies. Here, we present novel insights into the antibody responses following S. aureus bacteremia. Fifteen bacteremic patients were followed extensively from diagnosis onwards (median 29 days, range 9-74). S. aureus strains (median 3, range 1-6) and serial serum samples (median 16, range 6-27) were collected. Strains were genotyped by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) and genes encoding 19 staphylococcal proteins were detected by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). The levels of IgG, IgA, and IgM directed to these proteins were determined using bead-based flow cytometry. All strains isolated from individual patients were PFGE-identical. The genes encoding clumping factor (Clf) A, ClfB, and iron-responsive surface-determinant (Isd) A were detected in all isolates. Antigen-specific IgG levels increased more frequently than IgA or IgM levels. In individual patients, different proteins induced an immune response and the dynamics clearly differed. Anti-ClfB, anti-IsdH, and anti-fibronectin-binding protein A IgG levels increased in 7 of 13 adult patients (p < 0.05). The anti-IsdA IgG level increased in 12 patients (initial to peak level: 1.13-10.72 fold; p < 0.01). Peak level was reached 7-37 days after diagnosis. In a bacteremic 5-day-old newborn, antistaphylococcal IgG levels declined from diagnosis onwards. In conclusion, each bacteremic patient develops a unique immune response directed to different staphylococcal proteins. Therefore, vaccines should be based on multiple components. IsdA is immunogenic and, therefore, produced in nearly all bacteremic patients.