Evidence-based controls for epidemics using spatio-temporal stochastic models in a Bayesian framework.

The control of highly infectious diseases of agricultural and plantation crops and livestock represents a key challenge in epidemiological and ecological modelling, with implemented control strategies often being controversial. Mathematical models, including the spatio-temporal stochastic models considered here, are playing an increasing role in the design of control as agencies seek to strengthen the evidence on which selected strategies are based. Here, we investigate a general approach to informing the choice of control strategies using spatio-temporal models within the Bayesian framework. We illustrate the approach for the case of strategies based on pre-emptive removal of individual hosts. For an exemplar model, using simulated data and historic data on an epidemic of Asiatic citrus canker in Florida, we assess a range of measures for prioritizing individuals for removal that take account of observations of an emerging epidemic. These measures are based on the potential infection hazard a host poses to susceptible individuals (hazard), the likelihood of infection of a host (risk) and a measure that combines both the hazard and risk (threat). We find that the threat measure typically leads to the most effective control strategies particularly for clustered epidemics when resources are scarce. The extension of the methods to a range of other settings is discussed. A key feature of the approach is the use of functional-model representations of the epidemic model to couple epidemic trajectories under different control strategies. This induces strong positive correlations between the epidemic outcomes under the respective controls, serving to reduce both the variance of the difference in outcomes and, consequently, the need for extensive simulation.Hola Adrakey was supported during the course of this research by a James Watt Postgraduate Research Scholarship from Heriot–Watt University

Investigation of geographic origin of wine from border regions: Potential limitations and possibilities of different analytical methods and combinations of methods to identify the correct side of the border

In the presented project the investigation on discrimination of geographic origin of wine in from border areas is carried out. Authentic wine samples from the border areas of Austria, Czech Republic, Slovakia (and from Serbia) are investigated and compared by applying different physico-chemical methods (e.g. IRMS, NMR, ICP-MS, ICP-OES, EPR, HPLC, UV-VIS, etc.). The comparison of the data sets from the participating countries and the different applied methods will show, to which extent a differentiation can still be achieved in the border areas of the respective countries, which methods prove most efficient and sensitive and if a combination of methods will lead to an increased sensitivity. Furthermore, we also investigate the causes for the potential differentiation, which might be environmentally determined, due to different agricultural and/or enological practices. Results from the first investigated vintage 2016 show a good separation of the respective geographic origins by isotope ratios and element concentrations as well as by other parameters. The relevant parameters for differentiation now have to be critically evaluated to exclude potential lab influences

The Physiology and Proteomics of Drought Tolerance in Maize: Early Stomatal Closure as a Cause of Lower Tolerance to Short-Term Dehydration?

Understanding the response of a crop to drought is the first step in the breeding of tolerant genotypes. In our study, two maize (Zea mays L.) genotypes with contrasting sensitivity to dehydration were subjected to moderate drought conditions. The subsequent analysis of their physiological parameters revealed a decreased stomatal conductance accompanied by a slighter decrease in the relative water content in the sensitive genotype. In contrast, the tolerant genotype maintained open stomata and active photosynthesis, even under dehydration conditions. Drought-induced changes in the leaf proteome were analyzed by two independent approaches, 2D gel electrophoresis and iTRAQ analysis, which provided compatible but only partially overlapping results. Drought caused the up-regulation of protective and stress-related proteins (mainly chaperones and dehydrins) in both genotypes. The differences in the levels of various detoxification proteins corresponded well with the observed changes in the activities of antioxidant enzymes. The number and levels of up-regulated protective proteins were generally lower in the sensitive genotype, implying a reduced level of proteosynthesis, which was also indicated by specific changes in the components of the translation machinery. Based on these results, we propose that the hypersensitive early stomatal closure in the sensitive genotype leads to the inhibition of photosynthesis and, subsequently, to a less efficient synthesis of the protective/detoxification proteins that are associated with drought tolerance

Effect of sitagliptin on cardiovascular outcomes in type 2 diabetes

BACKGROUND: Data are lacking on the long-term effect on cardiovascular events of adding sitagliptin, a dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitor, to usual care in patients with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. METHODS: In this randomized, double-blind study, we assigned 14,671 patients to add either sitagliptin or placebo to their existing therapy. Open-label use of antihyperglycemic therapy was encouraged as required, aimed at reaching individually appropriate glycemic targets in all patients. To determine whether sitagliptin was noninferior to placebo, we used a relative risk of 1.3 as the marginal upper boundary. The primary cardiovascular outcome was a composite of cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or hospitalization for unstable angina. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 3.0 years, there was a small difference in glycated hemoglobin levels (least-squares mean difference for sitagliptin vs. placebo, -0.29 percentage points; 95% confidence interval [CI], -0.32 to -0.27). Overall, the primary outcome occurred in 839 patients in the sitagliptin group (11.4%; 4.06 per 100 person-years) and 851 patients in the placebo group (11.6%; 4.17 per 100 person-years). Sitagliptin was noninferior to placebo for the primary composite cardiovascular outcome (hazard ratio, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.88 to 1.09; P<0.001). Rates of hospitalization for heart failure did not differ between the two groups (hazard ratio, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.83 to 1.20; P = 0.98). There were no significant between-group differences in rates of acute pancreatitis (P = 0.07) or pancreatic cancer (P = 0.32). CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with type 2 diabetes and established cardiovascular disease, adding sitagliptin to usual care did not appear to increase the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events, hospitalization for heart failure, or other adverse events

Methodology of research of environmental parameters on scaffolding

Zmieniające się parametry klimatyczne oddziałują niekorzystnie na osoby pracujące na rusztowaniu, mogąc zwiększać ryzyko wystąpienia sytuacji niebezpiecznych. Celowe jest pokazanie, na jakie zmiany narażony jest pracownik. W pracy zaprezentowano przykładowe wyniki badań środowiskowych, jakie otrzymano dla trzech rusztowań zlokalizowanych w Łodzi: temperatury powietrza, wilgotności względnej oraz ciśnienia atmosferycznego. W artykule przedstawiono również opis badań rusztowań budowlanych oraz metodykę badań parametrów środowiskowych w otoczeniu pracowników na rusztowaniu. Wyniki analiz wykazały, że zaproponowana metodyka badań gwarantuje otrzymanie wyników przydatnych w analizie środowiska pracy na rusztowaniu.People working on scaffolding are exposed to changing climatic parameters. They can increase the risk of dangerous situations. It is important to what changes a worker is exposed to. The article presents the sample results of environmental tests (air temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure) performed on three scaffolding located in Lodz. The article presents a description of the research of construction scaffolding and methodology of research of environmental parameters. Analysis results showed that the proposed test methodology guarantees obtaining results useful in analyzing the working environment on scaffolding

Gd(III)-Doped Carbon Dots as a Dual Fluorescent-MRI Probe

We describe the synthesis of Gd(III)-doped carbon dots as dual fluorescence-MRI probes for biomedical applications. The derived Gd(III)-doped carbon dots show uniform particle size (3–4 nm) and gadolinium distribution and form stable dispersions in water. More importantly, they exhibit bright fluorescence, strong T1-weighted MRI contrast and low cytotoxicity