The decline of fertility once again: a critical note on John Knodel's book and standardized demographic indexes

In der BRD gibt es gegenwärtig wieder eine Diskussion über den Rückgang der Geburtenrate. Die wichtigsten Beiträge zu dieser Debatte, die Prognosen über die Bevölkerungsentwicklung bis zum Jahr 2000 und weiter stellt, beinhalten aber Annahmen, die zum Teil ansatzweise auf der Voraussetzung beruhen, daß der beständige Rückgang der Fruchtbarkeit seit 1965/66 (vermutlich fälschlicherweise 'Pillenknick' genannt) der Beginn eines neueren säkularen Prozesses war, eines zweiten demographischen Übergangs oder auch nur einer weiteren Phase dieses Phänomens war. Die Rechtfertigung einer solchen Annahme hängt davon ab, ob es einen ähnlichen Zustand wie den gibt, der Ende des 19. und Anfang des 20. Jahrhunderts in Deutschland zu dem bekannten Rückgang der Fruchtbarkeit geführt hat. Zur Beantwortung dieser aktuellen historisch-demographischen Frage wird auf die eine neuere Studie von J. Knodel hingewiesen. (KWübers.)'There is again at present discussion in the Federal Republic of Germany about the fall in the birth rate. The most important contributions to this debate, which constitute 'prognoses' of the development of the population till the year 2000 or beyond do however contain assumptions which are at least implicitly based on the premise that the continual decline in fertility since 1965/66 (probably falsely called 'Pillenknick') was the start of a recent secular process, of a second demographic transition or even merely of a further phase of that phenomenon. The justification for such a supposition does however depend on whether a state of affairs is in existence which led at the end of the nineteenth and start of the twentieth century in Germany to the known decline in fertility. In answer to this ever topical historical-demographic debate, John Knodel recently produced an important contribution.' (author's abstract

Nationale und regionale Konjunkturen: Probleme der Aggregation

"Diese Studie ist ein erster Versuch, mit Hilfe eines interregionalen Vergleichs der Entwicklungen der preußischen Provinzen Ostpreußen und Rheinland die Hypothese eines Agrarzyklus sui generis zu überprüfen. Ausgangspunkt war dabei die Frage, ob die gesamtwirtschaftliche Zyklizität durch Aggregationsartefakte verzerrt ist und so die Interpretation in die Irre leitet. Das Ergebnis war zunächst, dass eine Aggregation (unter bestimmten Bedingungen) vermutlich keine Artefakte erzeugt. Zugleich legen die Indizien aber eine etwas befremdlich anmutende Interpretation der Relationen zwischen landwirtschaftlicher und gewerblicher Zyklizität nahe: Der Agrarsektor, dessen relative Schrumpfung als Zeichen wirtschaftlicher Entwicklung gut, war hinsichtlich der Konjunkturen Vorreiter der Modernisierung, da er als erster Sektor die Basis für den systematisch zu erklärenden Teil der Zyklizität, das Marktverhalten, entwickelte. So wäre ein etwa diagnostizierbarer Dualismus, der im Verlauf der Entwicklung wieder verschwindet, nicht aus der relativen Schrumpfung des Agrarsektors, sondern daraus zu erklären, dass der gewerbliche Sektor zusammen mit der Ausdehnung seiner Märkte das von der Landwirtschaft hervorgebrachte moderne Marktverhalten übernimmt. Nebenergebnis der Studie sind Schätzungen von Zeitreihen des Pro-Kopf-Einkommens der preußischen Provinzen 1821-1883." (Autorenreferat)"This paper is a first attempt to investigate the hypothesis of an agrarian cycle sul generis by using an interregional comparison of the development in the two Prussian provinces of East Prussia and Rhineland. The starting point was the question whether macroeconomic cycles are no more than artifacts of aggregation and thus misleading. The results show that (under certain circumstances) aggregation probably does not introduce distortion. At the same time, the indices suggest an Interpretation of the relations between agrarian cycles and industrial cycles which is a bit surprising: the agrarian sector, whose decrease in size is considered to be a sign of economic development, was nevertheless the leader in modernisation - at least as far as the cyclical movements are concerned - since this sector was the first to develop a market behavior, which was the basis for those cyclical developments which can be systematically explained. Thus an identifiable dualism, which disappeared in the process of development, can not be explained by means of a relative shrinking of the agrarian sector, but rather through the fact that the industrial sector (together with the extension of its markets) also adopted the market behavior first developed in the agrarian sector. Another product of this study are time series estimations of the development of per capita income in the Prussian provinces 1821-1883." (author's abstract

Marktintegration der preußischen Wirtschaft im 19. Jahrhundert: Skizze eines Forschungsansatzes zur Fluktuation der Roggenpreise zwischen 1821 und 1865

Schon frühzeitig glaubten Wirtschaftswissenschaftler (1861 und 1879) aus der Analyse der Preisentwicklung auf Getreidemärkten in unterschiedlichen Regionen (Preußen und Europa) folgern zu können, daß sich die bestehenden Preisunterschiede allmählich vermindern. Diese Preisnivellierung wurde in erster Linie auf die verbesserten Transportmöglichkeiten (besonders die Einführung der Eisenbahn) zurückgeführt. Um die Hypothese der verstärkten Marktintegration zu überprüfen, untersucht der Artikel die Entwicklung der Roggenpreise zwischen 1821 und 1865. Ausgehend von theoretischen Überlegungen zum Phänomen der Marktintegration beschreiben die Verfasser zuerst die Berliner Roggenpreise für die Jahre 1791 bis 1934 im internationalen Vergleich und erörtern die Verkehrsverhältnisse im 19. Jahrhundert. Nach einer Operationalisierung der Hypothesen bezieht sich die eigentliche Analyse auf 63 preußische Marktstädte. Um die Hypothesen einer allmählichen Preisnivellierung systematisch zu testen, werden unterschiedliche Methoden angewandt (Graphen, Variationskoeffizienten, Korrelationen zwischen den Preisen in Berlin und anderen ausgewählten Marktplätzen, Streuungsdiagramme, univariate Spektralanalyse). Die vorläufigen Resultate erlauben - hinsichtlich der Roggenpreise - keine Bestätigung der Annahme, daß zwischen 1821 und 1865 die Marktintegration zunahm. Ein kritischer Kommentar (Reinhard Spree), der dem Beitrag beigefügt ist, weist auf methodische Schwächen der Untersuchung hin. (JL

Transport Models for Radioactive Carbon Dioxide at RWMC

Radioactive carbon dioxide (formed by oxidation of carbon-14) is a highly mobile, radioactive contaminant released from solid wastes buried at the Subsurface Disposal Area (SDA) at the Radioactive Waste Management Complex (RWMC) at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). Radioactive CO2 is chemically active in the environment, volatile, water soluble, and subject to adsorption on solids. For this reason, its fate must be understood and controlled to meet radiological requirements (protection of the atmosphere, aquifer, vadose zones, plants and animals). In the present work, the migration of carbon-14 as dissolved bicarbonate was studied using miscible displacement experiments in water-saturated columns containing sediments from RWMC. Dissolved carbon-14 was retarded relative to the movement of water by a factor of about 3.6, which translates to a partition coefficient (Kd) of 0.8 ml/g. Two different adsorption sites were identified, with one site possibly having a nonlinear adsorption isotherm. A conservative tracer gas, sulfur hexafluoride, was used to measure the tortuosity of sedimentary material for gaseous diffusion. The tortuosity of the RWMC sediment (Spreading Area B sediment) was determined to be 3.2, which is slightly greater than predicted by the commonly used Millington-Quirk equation. In terms of affecting the migration of carbon-14 to the aquifer, the relative importance of the parameters studied is: (1) natural moisture content of the sediments, (2) sediment tortuosity to gas-phase diffusion, and (3) adsorption onto solid phases

Assessment of RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD3.4 Prediction Capability with Severe Fuel Damage Scoping Test

The Power Burst Facility (PBF) was designed to provide experimental data to determine the thresholds for failure during accident conditions. Thus, the PBF benchmark using severe accidental analysis codes is essential to designing reactor for current directions. This assessment verified and validated that the RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD3.4 code can be used to assess the Severe Fuel Damage Scoping Test (SFD-ST) performed in the PBF facility. This study compares the cladding temperatures and hydrogen production results calculated by the RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD3.4 code with experimental data and calculated results from the SCDAP/RELAP5/MOD3.2 and SCDAP/RELAP5/MOD3.3 codes. The interested parameters are cladding temperature and hydrogen production since the cladding temperature affects hydrogen production and consequently influences the accident scenario. The calculated cladding temperatures and hydrogen production results from the RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD3.4 code are in a good agreement with the experimental data and are generally more reasonable than the calculated results from the SCDAP/RELAP5/MOD3.2 and SCDAP/RELAP5/MOD3.3 codes. There are some discrepancies in the cladding temperature and hydrogen production results but they are expected

Succinate oxidation by human liver mitochondria

Factors controlling the rate of oxidation of succinate were studied in mitochondria isolated from twenty-seven specimens of normal human liver obtained at operation. These were compared with mitochondria prepared from the livers of anesthetized and unanesthetized rats. Previously reported lower rates of succinate oxidation by human liver mitochondria were confirmed. This difference was no longer apparent when the succinic dehydrogenase activities of mitochondrial acetone powders were compared. The apparent Km of succinate for human liver mitochondrial succinoxidase is less than that of the anesthetized and unanesthetized rat. The concentration of oxalacetate is greater in human liver mitochondria compared with the anesthetized and unanesthetized rat. In both aerobic- and cyanide-inhibited mitochondria, the extent of the apparent succinate linked reduction of mitochondrial pyridine nucleotide was less in man than in the rat. In aerobic rat liver mitochondria, anesthesia lowers the extent of succinate-linked pyridine nucleotide reduction.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/31983/1/0000025.pd

Male Field Crickets Infested by Parasitoid Flies Express Phenotypes that May Benefit the Parasitoids

Parasites can cause changes in the phenotypes of their hosts that may benefit the parasite, the host, or both. To understand the evolutionary dynamics of host–parasite interactions it is necessary to first examine the effect of parasitic infestation on the host phenotype and whether the host or parasite benefits from these changes. The fly Ormia ochracea parasitizes the variable field cricket, Gryllus lineaticeps, and it uses male song to locate hosts for its lethal larvae. Adult flies preferentially orient to male songs with faster and longer chirps. We tested the effect of larval infestation on two types of host traits. First, we tested whether infestation affects male singing activity and song characters. Infested males were significantly less likely to sing than noninfested males, and when they did sing, they sang less frequently. Infestation thus reduced a male’s ability to attract mates, which may benefit the parasitoid if mating activity increases predation, superparasitism and/or energetic costs for their hosts. No song character we measured, however, differed between infested and noninfested males. Second, we tested whether infestation affects host mass. Infested males gained more mass than noninfested males, which was not explained by the reduced singing of infested males. Importantly, parasitoids that developed in males that gained more mass were heavier as pupae, which may increase their viability and reproductive success as adults. These changes in the host may be beneficial side-effects of the pathology of parasitism, the result of a host-compensatory response, or the result of host manipulation by the parasitoid

Parasitoid Increases Survival of Its Pupae by Inducing Hosts to Fight Predators

Many true parasites and parasitoids modify the behaviour of their host, and these changes are thought to be to the benefit of the parasites. However, field tests of this hypothesis are scarce, and it is often unclear whether the host or the parasite profits from the behavioural changes, or even if parasitism is a cause or consequence of the behaviour. We show that braconid parasitoids (Glyptapanteles sp.) induce their caterpillar host (Thyrinteina leucocerae) to behave as a bodyguard of the parasitoid pupae. After parasitoid larvae exit from the host to pupate, the host stops feeding, remains close to the pupae, knocks off predators with violent head-swings, and dies before reaching adulthood. Unparasitized caterpillars do not show these behaviours. In the field, the presence of bodyguard hosts resulted in a two-fold reduction in mortality of parasitoid pupae. Hence, the behaviour appears to be parasitoid-induced and confers benefits exclusively to the parasitoid