Correcting for effective area fished in fishery-dependent depletion estimates of abundance and capture efficiency

Depletion methods are widely used to estimate capture efficiency and abundance. However, they are highly dependent on the depletion area assumed. In open-ocean depletion studies, it is difficult to determine the true area of depletion. Satellite vessel monitoring systems (VMS) offer the potential to determine the area effectively fished. Observer-collected catch-and-effort data from the 1999 Atlantic sea scallop fishery in Georges Bank Closed Area II were used to obtain spatially-explicit DeLury depletion estimates of dredge efficiency and abundance, with corrections for fished area made using VMS data. Non-area-corrected efficiency estimates often had theoretically impossible values, indicating that the naively assumed fished area was likely too big. Fine-scale spatial analyses on individual depletion cells confirmed this result. Corrected-area efficiency estimates exhibited reduced variability and more plausible efficiencies, with 70% of 289 individual depletion estimates failing between 20% and 55%, with a mean of 46%. Abundance estimates from individual depletion studies matched maps of abundance from a preseason survey. Results indicated a total abundance of similar to 17 million pounds of scallop meat weight in the fished area, of which 6 million pounds were landed, providing an overall exploitation rate of 35%

Evaluating the predictive performance of empirical estimators of natural mortality rate using information on over 200 fish species

Many methods have been developed in the last 70 years to predict the natural mortality rate, M, of a stock based on empirical evidence from comparative life history studies. These indirect or empirical methods are used in most stock assessments to (i) obtain estimates of M in the absence of direct information, (ii) check on the reasonableness of a direct estimate of M, (iii) examine the range of plausible M estimates for the stock under consideration, and (iv) define prior distributions for Bayesian analyses. The two most cited empirical methods have appeared in the literature over 2500 times to date. Despite the importance of these methods, there is no consensus in the literature on how well these methods work in terms of prediction error or how their performance may be ranked. We evaluate estimators based on various combinations of maximum age (t(max)), growth parameters, and water temperature by seeing how well they reproduce \u3e200 independent, direct estimates of M. We use tenfold cross-validation to estimate the prediction error of the estimators and to rank their performance. With updated and carefully reviewed data, we conclude that a t(max)-based estimator performs the best among all estimators evaluated. The t(max)-based estimators in turn perform better than the Alverson-Carney method based on t(max) and the von Bertalanffy K coefficient, Pauly\u27s method based on growth parameters and water temperature and methods based just on K. It is possible to combine two independent methods by computing a weighted mean but the improvement over the t(max)-based methods is slight. Based on cross-validation prediction error, model residual patterns, model parsimony, and biological considerations, we recommend the use of a t(max)-based estimator (M = 4.899t(max)(-0.916), prediction error = 0.32) when possible and a growth-based method (M = 4.118K(0.73)L(infinity)(-0.33), prediction error = 0.6) otherwise

Rising Temperatures, Molting Phenology, and Epizootic Shell Disease in the American Lobster

Phenological mismatchmaladaptive changes in phenology resulting from altered timing of environmental cuesis an increasing concern in many ecological systems, yet its effects on disease are poorly characterized. American lobster (Homarus americanus) is declining at its southern geographic limit. Rising seawater temperatures are associated with seasonal outbreaks of epizootic shell disease (ESD), which peaks in prevalence in the fall. We used a 34-year mark-recapture data set to investigate relationships between temperature, molting phenology, and ESD in Long Island Sound, where temperatures are increasing at 0.4 degrees C per decade. Our analyses support the hypothesis that phenological mismatch is linked to the epidemiology of ESD. Warming spring temperatures are correlated with earlier spring molting. Lobsters lose diseased cuticle by molting, and early molting increases the intermolt period in the summer, when disease prevalence is increasing to a fall peak. In juvenile and adult male lobsters, September ESD prevalence was correlated with early molting, while October ESD prevalence was correlated with summer seawater temperature. This suggests that temperature-induced molting phenology affects the timing of the onset of ESD, but later in the summer this signal is swamped by the stronger signal of summer temperatures, which we hypothesize are associated with an increased rate of new infections. October ESD prevalence was approximate to 80% in years with hot summers and approximate to 30% in years with cooler summers. Yearly survival of diseased lobsters i

The logic of comparative life history studies for estimating key parameters, with a focus on natural mortality rate

There are a number of key parameters in population dynamics that are difficult to estimate, such as natural mortality rate, intrinsic rate of population growth, and stock-recruitment relationships. Often, these parameters of a stock are, or can be, estimated indirectly on the basis of comparative life history studies. That is, the relationship between a difficult to estimate parameter and life history correlates is examined over a wide variety of species in order to develop predictive equations. The form of these equations may be derived from life history theory or simply be suggested by exploratory data analysis. Similarly, population characteristics such as potential yield can be estimated by making use of a relationship between the population parameter and bio-chemico-physical characteristics of the ecosystem. Surprisingly, little work has been done to evaluate how well these indirect estimators work and, in fact, there is little guidance on how to conduct comparative life history studies and how to evaluate them. We consider five issues arising in such studies: (i) the parameters of interest may be ill-defined idealizations of the real world, (ii) true values of the parameters are not known for any species, (iii) selecting data based on the quality of the estimates can introduce a host of problems, (iv) the estimates that are available for comparison constitute a non-random sample of species from an ill-defined population of species of interest, and (v) the hierarchical nature of the data (e.g. stocks within species within genera within families, etc., with multiple observations at each level) warrants consideration. We discuss how these issues can be handled and how they shape the kinds of questions that can be asked of a database of life history studies

Search for squarks and gluinos in events with isolated leptons, jets and missing transverse momentum at s√=8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The results of a search for supersymmetry in final states containing at least one isolated lepton (electron or muon), jets and large missing transverse momentum with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider are reported. The search is based on proton-proton collision data at a centre-of-mass energy s√=8 TeV collected in 2012, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 20 fb−1. No significant excess above the Standard Model expectation is observed. Limits are set on supersymmetric particle masses for various supersymmetric models. Depending on the model, the search excludes gluino masses up to 1.32 TeV and squark masses up to 840 GeV. Limits are also set on the parameters of a minimal universal extra dimension model, excluding a compactification radius of 1/R c = 950 GeV for a cut-off scale times radius (ΛR c) of approximately 30

Measurement of the charge asymmetry in dileptonic Decays of top quark pairs in pp collisions at √ s = 7 TeV using the ATLAS detector

A measurement of the top-antitop (tt) charge asymmetry is presented using data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 4.6 fb −1 of LHC pp collisions at a centre- of-mass energy of 7 TeV collected by the ATLAS detector. Events with two charged leptons, at least two jets and large missing transverse momentum are selected. Two observables are studied: A tt/C, based on the reconstructed tt final state. The asymmetries are measured to be A ll/C = 0.024 +/- 0.015 (stat.) +/- 0.009 (syst.) Att/C = 0.021 +/- 0.025 (stat.) +/- 0.017 (syst.) The measured values are in agreement with the Standard Model predictions

Evidence for the Higgs-boson Yukawa coupling to tau leptons with the ATLAS detector

Results of a search for H → τ τ decays are presented, based on the full set of proton-proton collision data recorded by the ATLAS experiment at the LHC during 2011 and 2012. The data correspond to integrated luminosities of 4.5 fb−1 and 20.3 fb−1 at centre-of-mass energies of √s = 7 TeV and √s = 8 TeV respectively. All combinations of leptonic (τ → `νν¯ with ` = e, µ) and hadronic (τ → hadrons ν) tau decays are considered. An excess of events over the expected background from other Standard Model processes is found with an observed (expected) significance of 4.5 (3.4) standard deviations. This excess provides evidence for the direct coupling of the recently discovered Higgs boson to fermions. The measured signal strength, normalised to the Standard Model expectation, of µ = 1.43 +0.43 −0.37 is consistent with the predicted Yukawa coupling strength in the Standard Model