Changes in ice-shelf buttressing following the collapse of Larsen A Ice Shelf, Antarctica, and the resulting impact on tributaries

The dominant mass-loss process on the Antarctic Peninsula has been ice-shelf collapse, including the Larsen A Ice Shelf in early 1995. Following this collapse, there was rapid speed up and thinning of its tributary glaciers. We model the impact of this ice-shelf collapse on upstream tributaries, and compare with observations using new datasets of surface velocity and ice thickness. Using a two-horizontal-dimension shallow shelf approximation model, we are able to replicate the observed large increase in surface velocity that occurred within Drygalski Glacier, Antarctic Peninsula. The model results show an instantaneous twofold increase in flux across the grounding line, caused solely from the reduction in backstress through ice shelf removal. This demonstrates the importance of ice-shelf buttressing for flow upstream of the grounding line and highlights the need to explicitly include lateral stresses when modelling real-world settings. We hypothesise that further increases in velocity and flux observed since the ice-shelf collapse result from transient mass redistribution effects. Reproducing these effects poses the next, more stringent test of glacier and ice-sheet modelling studies

Coupled ice shelf-ocean modeling and complex grounding line retreat from a seabed ridge

Recent observations and modeling work have shown a complex mechanical coupling between Antarctica's floating ice shelves and the adjacent grounded ice sheet. A prime example is Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica, which has a strong negative mass balance caused by a recent increase in ocean-induced melting of its ice shelf. The mass loss coincides with the retreat of the grounding line from a seabed ridge, on which it was at least partly grounded until the 1970s. At present, it is unclear what has caused the onset of this retreat and how feedback mechanisms between the ocean and ice shelf geometry have influenced the ice dynamics. To address these questions, we present the first results from an offline coupling between a state-of-the-art shallow-ice flow model with grounding line resolving capabilities and a three-dimensional ocean general circulation model with a static implementation of the ice shelf. A series of idealized experiments simulate the retreat from a seabed ridge in response to changes in the ocean forcing, and we show that the retreat becomes irreversible after 20 years of warm ocean conditions. A comparison to experiments with a simple depth-dependent melt rate parameterization demonstrates that such parameterizations are unable to capture the details of the retreat process, and they overestimate mass loss by more than 40% over a 50 year timescal

A new high-precision and low-power GNSS receiver for long-term installations in remote areas

We have developed a new high-precision GNSS receiver specifically designed for long-term unattended deployments in remote areas. The receiver reports its status, and can be reprogrammed remotely, through an integrated satellite data link. It uses less power than commercially available alternatives while being equally, if not more, accurate. Data is saved locally on dual SD card slots for increased reliability. Deployments of a number those receivers in several different locations on the Antarctic Ice Sheet have shown them to robust and able to operate flawlessly at low temperatures down to −40 °C

Five decades of strong temporal variability in the flow of Brunt Ice Shelf, Antarctica

Data showing velocity changes on the Brunt Ice Shelf (BIS), Antarctica, over the last 55 years are presented and analysed. During this period no large-scale calving events took place and the ice shelf gradually grew in size. Ice flow velocities, however, fluctuated greatly, increasing twofold between 1970 and 2000, then decreasing again to previous levels by 2012 after which velocities started to increase yet again. In the observational period, velocity changes in the order of 10% a−1 have commonly been observed, and currently velocities are increasing at this rate. By modelling the ice flow numerically, we explore potential causes for the observed changes in velocity. We find that a loss of mechanical contact between the BIS and the McDonald Ice Rumples following a local calving event in 1971 would explain both the increase and the subsequent decrease in ice velocities. Other explanations involving enlargement of observed rift structures are discounted as the effects on ice flow are found to be too small and the spatial pattern of velocity change inconsistent with data. The most recent phase of acceleration remains unexplained but may potentially be related to a recent re-activation of a known rift structure within the BIS

The instantaneous impact of calving and thinning on the Larsen C Ice Shelf

The Antarctic Peninsula has seen rapid and widespread changes in the extent of its ice shelves in recent decades, including the collapse of the Larsen A and B ice shelves in 1995 and 2002, respectively. In 2017 the Larsen C Ice Shelf (LCIS) lost around 10 % of its area by calving one of the largest icebergs ever recorded (A68). This has raised questions about the structural integrity of the shelf and the impact of any changes in its extent on the flow of its tributary glaciers. In this work, we used an ice flow model to study the instantaneous impact of changes in the thickness and extent of the LCIS on ice dynamics and in particular on changes in the grounding line flux (GLF). We initialised the model to a pre-A68 calving state and first replicated the calving of the A68 iceberg. We found that there was a limited instantaneous impact on upstream flow – with speeds increasing by less than 10 % across almost all of the shelf – and a 0.28 % increase in GLF. This result is supported by observations of ice velocity made before and after the calving event. We then perturbed the ice-shelf geometry through a series of instantaneous, idealised calving and thinning experiments of increasing magnitude. We found that significant changes to the geometry of the ice shelf, through both calving and thinning, resulted in limited instantaneous changes in GLF. For example, to produce a doubling of GLF from calving, the new calving front needed to be moved to 5 km from the grounding line, removing almost the entire ice shelf. For thinning, over 200 m of the ice-shelf thickness had to be removed across the whole shelf to produce a doubling of GLF. Calculating the instantaneous increase in GLF (607 %) after removing the entire ice shelf allowed us to quantify the total amount of buttressing provided by the LCIS. From this, we identified that the region of the ice shelf in the first 5 km downstream of the grounding line provided over 80 % of the buttressing capacity of the shelf. This is due to the large resistive stresses generated in the narrow, local embayments downstream of the largest tributary glaciers

Inferring palaeo-accumulation records from ice-core data by an adjoint-based method: application to James Ross Island's ice core

Ice cores contain a record of snow precipitation that includes information about past atmospheric circulation and mass imbalance in the polar regions. We present a novel adjoint method to reconstruct a climatic record by both optimally dating an ice-core and deriving 5 from it a detailed accumulation history. The motivation of our work is the recent application of phase sensitive radar which measures the vertical velocity of an ice column. The velocity is dependent on the history of subsequent snow accumulation, compaction and compression; and in our inverse formulation of this problem, measured vertical velocity profiles can be utilized directly thereby reducing the uncertainty intro10 duced by ice flow modelling. We first apply our method to synthetic data in order to study its capability and the effect of noise and gaps in the data on retrieved accumulation history. The method is then applied to the ice core retrieved from James Ross Island, Antarctica. We show that the method is robust and that the results depend on quality of the age-depth observations and the derived flow regime around the core site. 15 The method facilitates the incorporation of increasing detail provided by ice-core analysis together with observed full-depth velocity in order to construct a complete climatic record of the polar regions

An improved model for tidally modulated grounding-line migration

Understanding grounding-line dynamics is necessary for predictions of long-term ice-sheet stability. However, despite growing observations of the tidal influence on grounding-line migration, this short-timescale migration is poorly understood, with most modeling attempts assuming beam theory to calculate displacements. Here we present an improved model of tidal grounding-line migration that treats migration as an elastic fracture problem, forced by the additional ocean water pressure from the tide. This new model predicts that the grounding line cannot be assumed to be in hydrostatic equilibrium and, furthermore, that migration is inherently asymmetric and nonlinear, with migration distances that are not proportional to the tidal load. Specifically, for constant surface slope, the grounding line migrates upstream approximately ten times further as the tide rises from mean sea level to high tide than it migrates downstream as the tide falls from mean sea level to low tide, and migration distances are substantially larger than simple flotation arguments suggest. Numerical tests also show that the dependence of migration distance on elastic moduli and ice-sheet thickness are inconsistent with predictions of beam theory for a range of realistic values. Finally, applying the new model to observations in Antarctica results in new estimates of bed slopes, though these estimates remain uncertain due to imperfect knowledge of the relevant rheological parameters