Injury Alcohol-Attributable Fractions: Methodological Issues and Developments

Background: Alcohol-attributable fractions (AAFs) are routinely used to estimate the burden of injury resulting from alcohol. Recent methodological advances allow AAFs to be estimated using national survey data. However, this requires assuming that the drinking patterns are equivalent to those used by epidemiological studies estimating the relative risk of injury. This study explores the implications of this assumption and presents an improved method of estimating injury AAFs. Methods: Diary survey is used to describe individuals’ drinking occasions and estimate AAFs. Statistical methods and numerical integration are used to combine the evidence on the risk of injury when intoxicated with the diary data. Alternative assumptions are chosen to explore the implications of using national survey data. Results:Overall, an estimated 27% of road traffic accident (RTA) and 23% of non-RTA injuries in Britain are attributable to alcohol. AAF estimates for RTAs range from 54% to 2% and for non-RTAs from 36% to 8% in men aged 16-24 and women aged 55-64 respectively. Two potentially more realistic assumptions relating to the use of national survey data resulted in substantially lower AAF estimates for RTAs. Conclusion: Current methods of estimating injury AAFs using national survey data are flawed for some harms, particularly RTAs, where the data is not consistent with the epidemiological literature. Our findings indicate that the burden of injuries from RTAs in England has been previously overestimated. Further research into the prevalence of risky behaviours when intoxicated is required to refine these methods and produce more robust burden of injury estimates

The type and impact of Evidence Review Group (ERG) exploratory analyses in the NICE Single Technology Appraisal (STA) process

Background: As part of the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) single technology appraisal process, independent evidence review groups (ERGs) critically appraise a company's submission relating to a specific technology and indication. Objectives: To explore the type of additional exploratory analyses conducted by ERGs and their impact on the recommendations made by NICE. Methods: The 100 most recently completed single technology appraisals with published guidance were selected for inclusion. A content analysis of relevant documents was undertaken to identify and extract relevant data, and narrative synthesis was used to rationalize and present these data. Results: The types of exploratory analysis conducted in relation to companies' models were fixing errors, addressing violations, addressing matters of judgment, and the provision of a new, ERG-preferred base case. Ninety-three of the 100 ERG reports contained at least one of these analyses. The most frequently reported type of analysis in these 93 ERG reports related to the category Matters of judgment, which was reported in 83 reports (89%). At least one of the exploratory analyses conducted and reported by an ERG is mentioned in 97% of NICE appraisal consultation documents and 94% of NICE final appraisal determinations, and had a clear influence on recommendations in 72% of appraisal consultation documents and 47% of final appraisal determinations. Conclusions: These results suggest that the additional analyses undertaken by ERGs in the appraisal of company submissions are highly influential in the policy-making and decision-making process

Potential benefits of minimum unit pricing for alcohol versus a ban on below cost selling in England 2014: modelling study

Objective To evaluate the potential impact of two alcohol control policies under consideration in England: banning below cost selling of alcohol and minimum unit pricing. Design Modelling study using the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model version 2.5. Setting England 2014-15. Population Adults and young people aged 16 or more, including subgroups of moderate, hazardous, and harmful drinkers. Interventions Policy to ban below cost selling, which means that the selling price to consumers could not be lower than tax payable on the product, compared with policies of minimum unit pricing at £0.40 (€0.57; $0.75), 45p, and 50p per unit (7.9 g/10 mL) of pure alcohol. Main outcome measures Changes in mean consumption in terms of units of alcohol, drinkers’ expenditure, and reductions in deaths, illnesses, admissions to hospital, and quality adjusted life years. Results The proportion of the market affected is a key driver of impact, with just 0.7% of all units estimated to be sold below the duty plus value added tax threshold implied by a ban on below cost selling, compared with 23.2% of units for a 45p minimum unit price. Below cost selling is estimated to reduce harmful drinkers’ mean annual consumption by just 0.08%, around 3 units per year, compared with 3.7% or 137 units per year for a 45p minimum unit price (an approximately 45 times greater effect). The ban on below cost selling has a small effect on population health—saving an estimated 14 deaths and 500 admissions to hospital per annum. In contrast, a 45p minimum unit price is estimated to save 624 deaths and 23 700 hospital admissions. Most of the harm reductions (for example, 89% of estimated deaths saved per annum) are estimated to occur in the 5.3% of people who are harmful drinkers. Conclusions The ban on below cost selling, implemented in the England in May 2014, is estimated to have small effects on consumption and health harm. The previously announced policy of a minimum unit price, if set at expected levels between 40p and 50p per unit, is estimated to have an approximately 40-50 times greater effect

Speckle echocardiographic left atrial strain and stiffness index as predictors of maintenance of sinus rhythm after cardioversion for atrial fibrillation: a prospective study

BACKGROUND: Echocardiographic left atrial (LA) strain parameters have been associated with atrial fibrillation (AF) in prior studies. Our goal was to determine if strain measures [peak systolic longitudinal strain (LAS) and stiffness index (LASt)] changed after cardioversion (CV); and their relation to AF recurrence. METHODS AND RESULTS: 46 participants with persistent AF and 41 age-matched participants with no AF were recruited. LAS and LASt were measured before and immediately after CV using 2D speckle tracking imaging (2DSI). Maintenance of sinus rhythm was assessed over a 6-month follow up. Mean LAS was lower, and mean LASt higher, in participants with AF before CV as compared to control group (11.9 +/- 1.0 vs 35.7 +/- 1.7, p CONCLUSIONS: LAS and LASt differed between participants with and without AF, irrespective of the rhythm at the time of echocardiographic assessment. Baseline LAS and LASt were not associated with AF recurrence. However, change in LAS after CV may be a useful predictor of recurrent arrhythmia

Modeling the potential impact of changing access rates to specialist treatment for alcohol dependence for local authorities in England: The Specialist Treatment for Alcohol Model (STreAM)

OBJECTIVE: We modeled the impact of changing Specialist Treatment Access Rates to different treatment pathways on the future prevalence of alcohol dependence, treatment outcomes, service capacity, costs, and mortality. METHOD: Local Authority numbers and the prevalence of people "potentially in need of assessment for and treatment in specialist services for alcohol dependence" (PINASTFAD) are estimated by mild, moderate, severe, and complex needs. Administrative data were used to estimate the Specialist Treatment Access Rate per PINASTFAD person and classify 22 different treatment pathways. Other model inputs include natural remission, relapse after treatment, service costs, and mortality rates. "What-if" analyses assess changes to Specialist Treatment Access Rates and treatment pathways. Model outputs include the numbers and prevalence of people who are PINASTFAD, numbers treated by 22 pathways, outcomes (successful completion with abstinence, successfully moderated nonproblematic drinking, re-treatment within 6 months, dropout, transfer, custody), mortality rates, capacity requirements (numbers in contact with community services or staying in residential or inpatient places), total treatment costs, and general health care savings. Five scenarios illustrate functionality: (a) no change, (b) achieve access rates at the 70th percentile nationally, (c) increase access by 25%, (d) increase access to Scotland rate, and (e) reduce access by 25%. RESULTS: At baseline, 14,581 people are PINASTFAD (2.43% of adults) and the Specialist Treatment Access Rate is 10.84%. The 5-year impact of scenarios on PINASTFAD numbers (vs. no change) are (B) reduced by 191 (-1.3%), (C) reduced by 477 (-3.3%), (D) reduced by almost 2,800 (-19.2%), and (E) increased by 533 (+3.6%). The relative impact is similar for other outputs. CONCLUSIONS: Decision makers can estimate the potential impact of changing Specialist Treatment Access Rates for alcohol dependence

Prevalence of chronic kidney disease in the community in the United Kingdom in OxRen, a population-based cohort study

Background: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a largely asymptomatic condition of diminished renal function, which may not be detected until advanced stages without screening. Aim: To establish undiagnosed and overall CKD prevalence using a cross-sectional analysis. Design and Setting: Longitudinal cohort study in UK primary care. Method: Participants aged ≥60 years were invited to attend CKD screening visits to determine whether they had reduced renal function (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] Results: A total of 3207 participants were recruited and 861 attended the baseline assessment. The CKD cohort consisted of 327 people with existing CKD, 257 people with CKD diagnosed through screening (CKD prevalence of 18.2%, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 16.9 to 19.6), and 277 with borderline/transient decreased renal function. In the CKD cohort, 54.4% were female, mean standard deviation (SD) age was 74.0 (SD 6.9) years, and mean eGFR was 58.0 (SD 18.4) ml/min/1.73 m2. Of the 584 with confirmed CKD, 44.0% were diagnosed through screening. Over half of the CKD cohort (51.9%, 447/861) fell into CKD stages 3–5 at their baseline assessment, giving an overall prevalence of CKD stages 3–5 of 13.9% (95% CI = 12.8 to 15.1). More people had reduced eGFR using the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) equation than with CKD Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation in the 60–75-year age group and more had reduced eGFR using CKD-EPI in the ≥80-year age group. Conclusion: This study found that around 44.0% of people living with CKD are undiagnosed without screening, and prevalence of CKD stages 1–5 was 18.2% in participants aged >60 years. Follow-up will provide data on annual incidence, rate of CKD progression, determinants of rapid progression, and predictors of cardiovascular events.</p

The incidence of scarring on the dorsum of the hand

When undertaking image comparison of the hand between accused and perpetrator, it is not unusual for scars to be identified on the back of the hand. To investigate the occurrence of scarring in a discreet sample, a database of 238 individuals was examined, and the dorsum of the right and left hands was gridded for each individual. The position, size and type of scar were recorded within each grid. It was found that, in general, males exhibited a higher incidence of scarring than females. However, males were more likely to show scarring on their left hand whereas females were more likely to exhibit scarring on their right hand. Contrary to the literature, scarring was not most prevalent along the borders of the hand but occurred more frequently in association with the index and middle finger corridor regions. Surgical scars were rare as were large scars whereas linear scars smaller than 6 mm were the most frequently identified. Close to half of the sample did not exhibit scarring on one hand. The importance of understanding the pattern of scarring on the back of the hand is discussed in the light of forensic image comparison analysis

The deglacial history of surface and intermediate water of the Bering Sea

Author Posting. © The Authors, 2005. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Elsevier B. V. for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography 52 (2005): 2163-2173, doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2005.07.004.The lithology of deglacial sediments from the Bering Sea includes intervals of laminated or dysaerobic sediments. These intervals are contemporaneous with the occurrence of laminated sediments from the California margin and Gulf of California, which suggests widespread low-oxygen conditions at intermediate depths in the North Pacific Ocean. The cause could be reduced intermediate water ventilation, increased organic carbon flux, or a combination of the two. We infer abrupt decreases of planktonic foraminifer δ18O at 14,400 y BP and 11,650 y BP, which may be a combination of both freshening and warming. On the Shirshov Ridge, the abundance of sea-ice diatoms of the genus Nitzschia reach local maxima twice during the deglaciation, the latter of which may be an expression of the Younger Dryas. These findings expand the extent of the expression of deglacial millennial-scale climate events to include the northernmost Pacific.The Oak Foundation of Boston, Massachusetts, and the WHOI Academic Programs Office provided support for Mea Cook. This project was funded by NSF grant OPP-9912122

Estimated Effects of Different Alcohol Taxation and Price Policies on Health Inequalities: A Mathematical Modelling Study

INTRODUCTION: While evidence that alcohol pricing policies reduce alcohol-related health harm is robust, and alcohol taxation increases are a WHO "best buy" intervention, there is a lack of research comparing the scale and distribution across society of health impacts arising from alternative tax and price policy options. The aim of this study is to test whether four common alcohol taxation and pricing strategies differ in their impact on health inequalities. METHODS AND FINDINGS: An econometric epidemiological model was built with England 2014/2015 as the setting. Four pricing strategies implemented on top of the current tax were equalised to give the same 4.3% population-wide reduction in total alcohol-related mortality: current tax increase, a 13.4% all-product duty increase under the current UK system; a value-based tax, a 4.0% ad valorem tax based on product price; a strength-based tax, a volumetric tax of £0.22 per UK alcohol unit (= 8 g of ethanol); and minimum unit pricing, a minimum price threshold of £0.50 per unit, below which alcohol cannot be sold. Model inputs were calculated by combining data from representative household surveys on alcohol purchasing and consumption, administrative and healthcare data on 43 alcohol-attributable diseases, and published price elasticities and relative risk functions. Outcomes were annual per capita consumption, consumer spending, and alcohol-related deaths. Uncertainty was assessed via partial probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) and scenario analysis. The pricing strategies differ as to how effects are distributed across the population, and, from a public health perspective, heavy drinkers in routine/manual occupations are a key group as they are at greatest risk of health harm from their drinking. Strength-based taxation and minimum unit pricing would have greater effects on mortality among drinkers in routine/manual occupations (particularly for heavy drinkers, where the estimated policy effects on mortality rates are as follows: current tax increase, -3.2%; value-based tax, -2.9%; strength-based tax, -6.1%; minimum unit pricing, -7.8%) and lesser impacts among drinkers in professional/managerial occupations (for heavy drinkers: current tax increase, -1.3%; value-based tax, -1.4%; strength-based tax, +0.2%; minimum unit pricing, +0.8%). Results from the PSA give slightly greater mean effects for both the routine/manual (current tax increase, -3.6% [95% uncertainty interval (UI) -6.1%, -0.6%]; value-based tax, -3.3% [UI -5.1%, -1.7%]; strength-based tax, -7.5% [UI -13.7%, -3.9%]; minimum unit pricing, -10.3% [UI -10.3%, -7.0%]) and professional/managerial occupation groups (current tax increase, -1.8% [UI -4.7%, +1.6%]; value-based tax, -1.9% [UI -3.6%, +0.4%]; strength-based tax, -0.8% [UI -6.9%, +4.0%]; minimum unit pricing, -0.7% [UI -5.6%, +3.6%]). Impacts of price changes on moderate drinkers were small regardless of income or socioeconomic group. Analysis of uncertainty shows that the relative effectiveness of the four policies is fairly stable, although uncertainty in the absolute scale of effects exists. Volumetric taxation and minimum unit pricing consistently outperform increasing the current tax or adding an ad valorem tax in terms of reducing mortality among the heaviest drinkers and reducing alcohol-related health inequalities (e.g., in the routine/manual occupation group, volumetric taxation reduces deaths more than increasing the current tax in 26 out of 30 probabilistic runs, minimum unit pricing reduces deaths more than volumetric tax in 21 out of 30 runs, and minimum unit pricing reduces deaths more than increasing the current tax in 30 out of 30 runs). Study limitations include reducing model complexity by not considering a largely ineffective ban on below-tax alcohol sales, special duty rates covering only small shares of the market, and the impact of tax fraud or retailer non-compliance with minimum unit prices. CONCLUSIONS: Our model estimates that, compared to tax increases under the current system or introducing taxation based on product value, alcohol-content-based taxation or minimum unit pricing would lead to larger reductions in health inequalities across income groups. We also estimate that alcohol-content-based taxation and minimum unit pricing would have the largest impact on harmful drinking, with minimal effects on those drinking in moderation

Medical student teaching in the UK: how well are newly qualified doctors prepared for their role caring for patients with cancer in hospital?

A number of studies have identified problems with undergraduate oncology teaching. We have investigated how well prepared newly qualified doctors (first foundation year, or FY1 doctors) are for treating patients with cancer. Twenty-five FY1 doctors and 15 senior doctors participated in interviews. We turned the emergent themes into a questionnaire for all 5143 UK FY1 doctors in 2005. The response rate was 43% (2062 responses). Sixty-one percent of FY1 doctors had received oncology teaching at medical school, but 31% recalled seeing fewer than 10 patients with cancer. Forty percent of FY1 doctors felt prepared for looking after patients with cancer. Sixty-five percent felt prepared for diagnosing cancer, 15% felt they knew enough about chemotherapy and radiotherapy, and 11% felt prepared for dealing with oncological emergencies. Respondents believed medical students should learn about symptom control (71%) and communication skills (41%). Respondents who had received oncology teaching were more likely to feel prepared for looking after patients with cancer (OR 1.52; 95% CI 1.14–2.04). Preparedness also correlated with exposure to patients with cancer (OR 1.48; 95% CI 1.22–1.79). We have found worryingly low levels of exposure of medical students to patients with cancer. First foundation year doctors lack knowledge about cancer care and symptom control. Oncologists should maintain involvement in undergraduate teaching, and encourage greater involvement of patients in this teaching