The Limits of Individual Identification from Sample Allele Frequencies: Theory and Statistical Analysis

It was shown recently using experimental data that it is possible under certain conditions to determine whether a person with known genotypes at a number of markers was part of a sample from which only allele frequencies are known. Using population genetic and statistical theory, we show that the power of such identification is, approximately, proportional to the number of independent SNPs divided by the size of the sample from which the allele frequencies are available. We quantify the limits of identification and propose likelihood and regression analysis methods for the analysis of data. We show that these methods have similar statistical properties and have more desirable properties, in terms of type-I error rate and statistical power, than test statistics suggested in the literature

Quantifying the contribution of different cloud types to the radiation budget in southern West Africa

The contribution of cloud to the radiation budget of southern West Africa (SWA) is poorly understood yet is important for understanding regional monsoon evolution and for evaluating and improving climate models, which have large biases in this region. Radiative transfer calculations applied to atmospheric profiles obtained from the CERES-CloudSat-CALIPSO-MODIS (CCCM) dataset are used to investigate the effects of 12 different cloud types (defined by their vertical structure) on the regional energy budget of SWA (5–10 °N, 8 °W-8 °E) during June-September. We show that the large regional mean cloud radiative effect in SWA is due to non-negligible contributions from many different cloud types; 8 cloud types have a cloud fraction larger than 5 % and contribute at least 5 % of the regional mean shortwave cloud radiative effect at the top of atmosphere. Low-clouds, which are poorly observed by passive satellite measurements, were found to cause net radiative cooling of the atmosphere, which reduces the heating from other cloud types by approximately 10 %. The sensitivity of the radiation budget to underestimating low-cloud cover is also investigated. The radiative effect of missing low-cloud is found to be up to approximately –25 W m-2 for upwelling shortwave irradiance at the top of atmosphere and 35 W m-2 for downwelling shortwave irradiance at the surface

Continuous cough monitoring using ambient sound recording during convalescence from a COPD exacerbation

Purpose Cough is common in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and is associated with frequent exacerbations and increased mortality. Cough increases during acute exacerbations (AE-COPD), representing a possible metric of clinical deterioration. Conventional cough monitors accurately report cough counts over short time periods. We describe a novel monitoring system which we used to record cough continuously for up to 45 days during AE-COPD convalescence. Methods This is a longitudinal, observational study of cough monitoring in AE-COPD patients discharged from a single teaching-hospital. Ambient sound was recorded from two sites in the domestic environment and analysed using novel cough classifier software. For comparison, the validated hybrid HACC/LCM cough monitoring system was used on days 1, 5, 20 and 45. Patients were asked to record symptoms daily using diaries. Results Cough monitoring data were available for 16 subjects with a total of 568 monitored days. Daily cough count fell significantly from mean±SEM 272.7±54.5 on day 1 to 110.9±26.3 on day 9 (p<0.01) before plateauing. The absolute cough count detected by the continuous monitoring system was significantly lower than detected by the hybrid HACC/LCM system but normalised counts strongly correlated (r=0.88, p<0.01) demonstrating an ability to detect trends. Objective cough count and subjective cough scores modestly correlated (r=0.46). Conclusions Cough frequency declines significantly following AE-COPD and the reducing trend can be detected using continuous ambient sound recording and novel cough classifier software. Objective measurement of cough frequency has the potential to enhance our ability to monitor the clinical state in patients with COPD

A multi-satellite climatology of clouds, radiation and precipitation in southern West Africa and comparison to climate models

Southern West Africa (SWA) has a large population that relies on highly variable monsoon rainfall, yet climate models show little consensus over projected precipitation in this region. Understanding of the current and future climate of SWA is further complicated by rapidly increasing anthropogenic emissions and a lack of surface observations. Using multiple satellite observations, the ERA-Interim reanalysis, and four climate models, we document the climatology of cloud, precipitation and radiation over SWA in June-July, highlight discrepancies among satellite products, and identify shortcomings in climate models and ERA-Interim. Large differences exist between monthly mean cloud cover estimates from satellites, which range from 68 to 94 %. In contrast, differences among satellite observations in top of atmosphere outgoing radiation and surface precipitation are smaller, with monthly means of about 230 W m–2 of longwave radiation, 145 W m–2 of shortwave radiation and 5.87 mm day–1 of precipitation. Both ERA-Interim and the climate models show less total cloud cover than observations, mainly due to underestimating low cloud cover. Errors in cloud cover, along with uncertainty in surface albedo, lead to a large spread of outgoing shortwave radiation. Both ERA-Interim and the climate models also show signs of convection developing too early in the diurnal cycle, with associated errors in the diurnal cycles of precipitation and outgoing longwave radiation. Clouds, radiation and precipitation are linked in an analysis of the regional energy budget, which shows that inter-annual variability of precipitation and dry static energy divergence are strongly linked

Using laboratory and field measurements to constrain a single habit shortwave optical parameterization for cirrus

A single habit parameterization for the shortwave optical properties of cirrus is presented. The parameterization utilizes a hollow particle geometry, with stepped internal cavities as identified in laboratory and field studies. This particular habit was chosen as both experimental and theoretical results show that the particle exhibits lower asymmetry parameters when compared to solid crystals of the same aspect ratio. The aspect ratio of the particle was varied as a function of maximum dimension, D, in order to adhere to the same physical relationships assumed in the microphysical scheme in a configuration of the Met Office atmosphere-only global model, concerning particle mass, size and effective density. Single scattering properties were then computed using T-Matrix, Ray Tracing with Diffraction on Facets (RTDF) and Ray Tracing (RT) for small, medium, and large size parameters respectively. The scattering properties were integrated over 28 particle size distributions as used in the microphysical scheme. The fits were then parameterized as simple functions of Ice Water Content (IWC) for 6 shortwave bands. The parameterization was implemented into the GA6 configuration of the Met Office Unified Model along with the current operational long-wave parameterization. The GA6 configuration is used to simulate the annual twenty-year short-wave (SW) fluxes at top-of-atmosphere (TOA) and also the temperature and humidity structure of the atmosphere. The parameterization presented here is compared against the current operational model and a more recent habit mixture model

Subsurface chlorophyll maxima reduce the performance of non-photochemical quenching corrections in the Southern Ocean

Non-photochemical quenching (NPQ) within phytoplankton cells often causes the daytime suppression of chlorophyll fluorescence in the Southern Ocean. This is problematic and requires accurate correction when chlorophyll fluorescence is used as a proxy for chlorophyll-a concentration or phytoplankton abundance. In this study, we reveal that Southern Ocean subsurface chlorophyll maxima (SCMs) are the largest source of uncertainty when correcting for NPQ of chlorophyll fluorescence profiles. A detailed assessment of NPQ correction methods supports this claim by taking advantage of coincident chlorophyll fluorescence and chlorophyll concentration profiles. The best performing NPQ correction methods are conditional methods that consider the mixed layer depth (MLD), subsurface fluorescence maximum (SFM) and depth of 20% surface light. Compared to existing methods, the conditional methods proposed halve the bias in corrected chlorophyll fluorescence profiles and improve the success of replicating a SFM relative to chlorophyll concentration profiles. Of existing methods, the X12 and P18 methods, perform best overall, even when considering methods supplemented by beam attenuation or backscatter data. The widely-used S08 method, is more varied in its performance between profiles and its application introduced on average up to 2% more surface bias. Despite the significant improvement of the conditional method, it still underperformed in the presence of an SCM due to 1) changes in optical properties at the SCM and 2) large gradients of chlorophyll fluorescence across the pycnocline. Additionally, we highlight that conditional methods are best applied when uncertainty in chlorophyll fluorescence yields is within 50%. This highlights the need to better characterize the bio-optics of SCMs and chlorophyll fluorescence yields in the Southern Ocean, so that chlorophyll fluorescence data can be accurately converted to chlorophyll concentration in the absence of in situ water sampling

An evaluation of operational and research weather forecasts for Southern West Africa using observations from the DACCIWA field campaign in June‐July 2016

Reliable and accurate weather forecasts have the potential to improve living conditions in densely populated southern West Africa (SWA), in particularly those of rainfall and its extremes. A limited availability of observations has long impeded a rigorous evaluation of current state‐of‐the‐art forecast models. The field campaign of the Dynamics‐Aerosol‐Chemistry‐Cloud Interactions in West Africa (DACCIWA) project in June‐July 2016 has created an unprecedentedly dense set of measurements from surface stations and radiosondes. Here we present results from a comprehensive evaluation of both numerical model forecasts and satellite products using these data on a regional and local level. Results reveal a substantial observational uncertainty showing considerable underestimations in satellite estimates of rainfall and low‐cloud cover with little correlation at the local scale. Models have a dry bias of 0.1–1.9 mmday−1 in rainfall and too low column relative humidity. They tend to underestimate low clouds, leading to excess surface solar radiation of 43 Wm−2. Remarkably, most models show some skill in representing regional modulations of rainfall related to synoptic‐scale disturbances, while local variations in rainfall and cloudiness are hardly captured. Slightly better results are found with respect to temperature and for the post‐onset rather than for the pre‐onset period. Delicate local features such as the Maritime Inflow phenomenon are also rather poorly represented, leading to too cool, dry and cloudy conditions at the coast. Differences between forecast days 1 and 2 are relatively small and hardly systematic, suggesting a relatively quick error saturation. Using explicit convection leads to more realistic spatial variability in rainfall, but otherwise no marked improvement. Future work should aim at improving the subtle balance between the diurnal cycles of low clouds, surface radiation, the boundary layer and convection. Further efforts are also needed to improve the observational system beyond field campaign periods

FUSE Measurements of Far Ultraviolet Extinction. I. Galactic Sight Lines

We present extinction curves that include data down to far ultraviolet wavelengths (FUV; 1050 - 1200 A) for nine Galactic sight lines. The FUV extinction was measured using data from the Far Ultraviolet Spectroscopic Explorer. The sight lines were chosen for their unusual extinction properties in the infrared through the ultraviolet; that they probe a wide range of dust environments is evidenced by the large spread in their measured ratios of total-to-selective extinction, R_V = 2.43 - 3.81. We find that extrapolation of the Fitzpatrick & Massa relationship from the ultraviolet appears to be a good predictor of the FUV extinction behavior. We find that predictions of the FUV extinction based upon the Cardelli, Clayton & Mathis (CCM) dependence on R_V give mixed results. For the seven extinction curves well represented by CCM in the infrared through ultraviolet, the FUV extinction is well predicted in three sight lines, over-predicted in two sight lines, and under-predicted in 2 sight lines. A Maximum Entropy Method analysis using a simple three component grain model shows that seven of the nine sight lines in the study require a larger fraction of grain materials to be in dust when FUV extinction is included in the models. Most of the added grain material is in the form of small (radii < 200 A) grains.Comment: Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal. 31 pages with 7 figure