A smoothed stochastic earthquake rate model considering seismicity and fault moment release for Europe

We present a time-independent gridded earthquake rate forecast for the European region including Turkey. The spatial component of our model is based on kernel density estimation techniques, which we applied to both past earthquake locations and fault moment release on mapped crustal faults and subduction zone interfaces with assigned slip rates. Our forecast relies on the assumption that the locations of past seismicity is a good guide to future seismicity, and that future large-magnitude events occur more likely in the vicinity of known faults. We show that the optimal weighted sum of the corresponding two spatial densities depends on the magnitude range considered. The kernel bandwidths and density weighting function are optimized using retrospective likelihood-based forecast experiments. We computed earthquake activity rates (a- and b-value) of the truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution separately for crustal and subduction seismicity based on a maximum likelihood approach that considers the spatial and temporal completeness history of the catalogue. The final annual rate of our forecast is purely driven by the maximum likelihood fit of activity rates to the catalogue data, whereas its spatial component incorporates contributions from both earthquake and fault moment-rate densities. Our model constitutes one branch of the earthquake source model logic tree of the 2013 European seismic hazard model released by the EU-FP7 project ‘Seismic HAzard haRmonization in Europe' (SHARE) and contributes to the assessment of epistemic uncertainties in earthquake activity rates. We performed retrospective and pseudo-prospective likelihood consistency tests to underline the reliability of our model and SHARE's area source model (ASM) using the testing algorithms applied in the collaboratory for the study of earthquake predictability (CSEP). We comparatively tested our model's forecasting skill against the ASM and find a statistically significant better performance for testing periods of 10-20yr. The testing results suggest that our model is a viable candidate model to serve for long-term forecasting on timescales of years to decades for the European regio

The 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model: key components and results

The 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM13) results from a community-based probabilistic seismic hazard assessment supported by the EU-FP7 project “Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe” (SHARE, 2009–2013). The ESHM13 is a consistent seismic hazard model for Europe and Turkey which overcomes the limitation of national borders and includes a through quantification of the uncertainties. It is the first completed regional effort contributing to the “Global Earthquake Model” initiative. It might serve as a reference model for various applications, from earthquake preparedness to earthquake risk mitigation strategies, including the update of the European seismic regulations for building design (Eurocode 8), and thus it is useful for future safety assessment and improvement of private and public buildings. Although its results constitute a reference for Europe, they do not replace the existing national design regulations that are in place for seismic design and construction of buildings. The ESHM13 represents a significant improvement compared to previous efforts as it is based on (1) the compilation of updated and harmonised versions of the databases required for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, (2) the adoption of standard procedures and robust methods, especially for expert elicitation and consensus building among hundreds of European experts, (3) the multi-disciplinary input from all branches of earthquake science and engineering, (4) the direct involvement of the CEN/TC250/SC8 committee in defining output specifications relevant for Eurocode 8 and (5) the accounting for epistemic uncertainties of model components and hazard results. Furthermore, enormous effort was devoted to transparently document and ensure open availability of all data, results and methods through the European Facility for Earthquake Hazard and Risk (www.​efehr.​org)

Individual variability and versatility in an eco-evolutionary model of avian migration

Seasonal migration is a complex and variable behaviour with the potential to promote reproductive isolation. In Eurasian blackcaps (Sylvia atricapilla), a migratory divide in central Europe separating populations with southwest (SW) and southeast (SE) autumn routes may facilitate isolation, and individuals using new wintering areas in Britain show divergence from Mediterranean winterers. We tracked 100 blackcaps in the wild to characterize these strategies. Blackcaps to the west and east of the divide used predominantly SW and SE directions, respectively, but close to the contact zone many individuals took intermediate (S) routes. At 14.0° E, we documented a sharp transition from SW to SE migratory directions across only 27 (10–86) km, implying a strong selection gradient across the divide. Blackcaps wintering in Britain took northwesterly migration routes from continental European breeding grounds. They originated from a surprisingly extensive area, spanning 2000 km of the breeding range. British winterers bred in sympatry with SW-bound migrants but arrived 9.8 days earlier on the breeding grounds, suggesting some potential for assortative mating by timing. Overall, our data reveal complex variation in songbird migration and suggest that selection can maintain variation in migration direction across short distances while enabling the spread of a novel strategy across a wide range

A smoothed stochastic earthquake rate model considering seismicity and fault moment release for Europe

ISSN:0956-540XISSN:1365-246

A smoothed stochastic earthquake rate model considering seismicity and fault moment release for Europe

We present a time-independent gridded earthquake rate forecast for the European region including Turkey. The spatial component of our model is based on kernel density estimation techniques, which we applied to both past earthquake locations and fault moment release on mapped crustal faults and subduction zone interfaces with assigned slip rates. Our forecast relies on the assumption that the locations of past seismicity is a good guide to future seismicity, and that future large-magnitude events occur more likely in the vicinity of known faults. We show that the optimal weighted sum of the corresponding two spatial densities depends on the magnitude range considered. The kernel bandwidths and density weighting function are optimized using retrospective likelihood-based forecast experiments. We computed earthquake activity rates (a- and b-value) of the truncated Gutenberg–Richter distribution separately for crustal and subduction seismicity based on a maximum likelihood approach that considers the spatial and temporal completeness history of the catalogue. The final annual rate of our forecast is purely driven by the maximum likelihood fit of activity rates to the catalogue data, whereas its spatial component incorporates contributions from both earthquake and fault moment-rate densities. Our model constitutes one branch of the earthquake source model logic tree of the 2013 European seismic hazard model released by the EU-FP7 project ‘Seismic HAzard haRmonization in Europe’ (SHARE) and contributes to the assessment of epistemic uncertainties in earthquake activity rates. We performed retrospective and pseudo-prospective likelihood consistency tests to underline the reliability of our model and SHARE’s area source model (ASM) using the testing algorithms applied in the collaboratory for the study of earthquake predictability (CSEP). We comparatively tested our model’s forecasting skill against the ASM and find a statistically significant better performance for testing periods of 10–20 yr. The testing results suggest that our model is a viable candidate model to serve for long-term forecasting on timescales of years to decades for the European region.EC-Research FP7-projects, SHARE, under grant agreement No. 226967 and NERA, under grant agreement No. 262330Published1159-11722T. Tettonica attiva3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischioJCR Journalrestricte

Individual variability and versatility in an eco-evolutionary model of avian migration

Seasonal migration is a complex and variable behaviour with the potential to promote reproductive isolation. In Eurasian blackcaps (Sylvia atricapilla), a migratory divide in central Europe separating populations with southwest (SW) and southeast (SE) autumn routes may facilitate isolation, and individuals using new wintering areas in Britain show divergence from Mediterranean winterers. We tracked 100 blackcaps in the wild to characterize these strategies. Blackcaps to the west and east of the divide used predominantly SW and SE directions, respectively, but close to the contact zone many individuals took intermediate (S) routes. At 14.0° E, we documented a sharp transition from SW to SE migratory directions across only 27 (10–86) km, implying a strong selection gradient across the divide. Blackcaps wintering in Britain took northwesterly migration routes from continental European breeding grounds. They originated from a surprisingly extensive area, spanning 2000 km of the breeding range. British winterers bred in sympatry with SW-bound migrants but arrived 9.8 days earlier on the breeding grounds, suggesting some potential for assortative mating by timing. Overall, our data reveal complex variation in songbird migration and suggest that selection can maintain variation in migration direction across short distances while enabling the spread of a novel strategy across a wide range