On the role of specific drug binding in modelling arterial eluting stents

In this paper we consider drug binding in the arterial wall following delivery by a drug-eluting stent. Whilst it is now generally accepted that a non-linear saturable reversible binding model is required to properly describe the binding process, the precise form of the binding model varies between authors. Our particular interest in this manuscript is in assessing to what extent modelling specific and non-specific binding in the arterial wall as separate phases is important. We study this issue by extending a recently developed coupled model of drug release and arterial tissue distribution, and comparing simulated profiles of drug concentration and drug mass in each phase within the arterial tissue

Model-Informed Risk Assessment and Decision Making for an Emerging Infectious Disease in the Asia-Pacific Region

Background: Effective response to emerging infectious disease (EID) threats relies on health care systems that can detect and contain localised outbreaks before they reach a national or international scale. The Asia-Pacific region contains low and middle income countries in which the risk of EID outbreaks is elevated and whose health care systems may require international support to effectively detect and respond to such events. The absence of comprehensive data on populations, health care systems and disease characteristics in this region makes risk assessment and decisions about the provision of such support challenging.\ud \ud Methodology/principal findings: We describe a mathematical modelling framework that can inform this process by integrating available data sources, systematically explore the effects of uncertainty, and provide estimates of outbreak risk under a range of intervention scenarios. We illustrate the use of this framework in the context of a potential importation of Ebola Virus Disease into the Asia-Pacific region. Results suggest that, across a wide range of plausible scenarios, preemptive interventions supporting the timely detection of early cases provide substantially greater reductions in the probability of large outbreaks than interventions that support health care system capacity after an outbreak has commenced.\ud \ud Conclusions/significance: Our study demonstrates how, in the presence of substantial uncertainty about health care system infrastructure and other relevant aspects of disease control, mathematical models can be used to assess the constraints that limited resources place upon the ability of local health care systems to detect and respond to EID outbreaks in a timely and effective fashion. Our framework can help evaluate the relative impact of these constraints to identify resourcing priorities for health care system support, in order to inform principled and quantifiable decision making

Listening In on the Past: What Can Otolith δ18O Values Really Tell Us about the Environmental History of Fishes?

Oxygen isotope ratios from fish otoliths are used to discriminate marine stocks and reconstruct past climate, assuming that variations in otolith δ18O values closely reflect differences in temperature history of fish when accounting for salinity induced variability in water δ18O. To investigate this, we exploited the environmental and migratory data gathered from a decade using archival tags to study the behaviour of adult plaice (Pleuronectes platessa L.) in the North Sea. Based on the tag-derived monthly distributions of the fish and corresponding temperature and salinity estimates modelled across three consecutive years, we first predicted annual otolith δ18O values for three geographically discrete offshore sub-stocks, using three alternative plausible scenarios for otolith growth. Comparison of predicted vs. measured annual δ18O values demonstrated >96% correct prediction of sub-stock membership, irrespective of the otolith growth scenario. Pronounced inter-stock differences in δ18O values, notably in summer, provide a robust marker for reconstructing broad-scale plaice distribution in the North Sea. However, although largely congruent, measured and predicted annual δ18O values of did not fully match. Small, but consistent, offsets were also observed between individual high-resolution otolith δ18O values measured during tag recording time and corresponding δ18O predictions using concomitant tag-recorded temperatures and location-specific salinity estimates. The nature of the shifts differed among sub-stocks, suggesting specific vital effects linked to variation in physiological response to temperature. Therefore, although otolith δ18O in free-ranging fish largely reflects environmental temperature and salinity, we counsel prudence when interpreting otolith δ18O data for stock discrimination or temperature reconstruction until the mechanisms underpinning otolith δ18O signature acquisition, and associated variation, are clarified

Influence of O6-benzylguanine on the anti-tumour activity and normal tissue toxicity of 1,3-bis(2-chloroethyl)-1-nitrosourea and molecular combinations of 5-fluorouracil and 2-chloroethyl-1-nitrosourea in mice

Previous studies have demonstrated that novel molecular combinations of 5-fluorouracil (5FU) and 2-chloroethyl-1-nitrosourea (CNU) have good preclinical activity and may exert less myelotoxicity than the clinically used nitrosoureas such as 1,3-bis(2-chloroethyl)-1-nitrosourea (BCNU). This study examined the effect of O6-alkylguanine-DNA-alkyltransferase (ATase) depletion by the pseudosubstrate O6-benzylguanine (BG) on the anti-tumour activity and normal tissue toxicity in mice of three such molecular combinations, in comparison with BCNU. When used as single agents at their maximum tolerated dose, all three novel compounds produced a significant growth retardation of BCNU-resistant murine colon and human breast xenografts. This in vivo anti-tumour effect was potentiated by BG, but was accompanied by severe myelotoxicity as judged by spleen colony forming assays. However, while tumour resistance to BCNU was overcome using BG, this was at the expense of enhanced bone marrow, gut and liver toxicity. Therefore, although this ATase-depletion approach resulted in improved anti-tumour activity for all three 5-FU:CNU molecular combinations, the potentiated toxicities in already dose-limiting tissues indicate that these types of agents offer no therapeutic advantage over BCNU when they are used together with BG. © 1999 Cancer Research Campaig

Aid and the control of tuberculosis in Papua New Guinea: is Australia's assistance cost-effective?

Australia supports the control of tuberculosis in Papua New Guinea for reasons of aid effectiveness and a desire to decrease the chance of importing tuberculosis to Australia. This paper analyses the case for this support using both cost-utility and cost-benefit analysis. We reach three conclusions. First, Australia directly benefits from its investment in controlling tuberculosis in Papua New Guinea, with a cost of $US 13 million (in 2012 prices) over 10 years earning a net present value of$US 22 million. Second, the longer and more extensive the basic directly observed short course therapy, or basic DOTS, to control tuberculosis, the higher are the returns for Australia. Finally, in addition to surpassing all commonly used benchmarks for being a cost-effective investment for Australia, a basic DOTS expansion also generates a health benefit for Papua New Guinea that compares well as one of the ‘ten best health buys’ in developing countries

Set-membership estimations for the evolution of infectious diseases in heterogeneous populations

The paper presents an approach for set-membership estimation of the state of a heterogeneous population in which an infectious disease is spreading. The population state may consist of susceptible, infected, recovered, etc. groups, where the individuals are heterogeneous with respect to traits, relevant to the particular disease. Set-membership estimations in this context are reasonable, since only vague information about the distribution of the population along the space of heterogeneity is available in practice. The presented approach comprises adapted versions of methods which are known in estimation and control theory, and involve solving parametrized families of optimization problems. Since the models of disease spreading in heterogeneous populations involve distributed systems (with non-local dynamics and endogenous boundary conditions), these problems are non-standard. The paper develops the needed theoretical instruments and a solution scheme. SI and SIR models of epidemic diseases are considered as case studies and the results reveal qualitative properties that may be of interest.Austrian Science Foundation (FWF