Using futures methods to create transformative spaces: visions of a good Anthropocene in southern Africa

The unique challenges posed by the Anthropocene require creative ways of engaging with the future and bringing about transformative change. Envisioning positive futures is a first step in creating a shared understanding and commitment that enables radical transformations toward sustainability in a world defined by complexity, diversity, and uncertainty. However, to create a transformative space in which truly unknowable futures can be explored, new experimental approaches are needed that go beyond merely extrapolating from the present into archetypal scenarios of the future. Here, we present a process of creative visioning where participatory methods and tools from the field of futures studies were combined in a novel way to create and facilitate a transformative space, with the aim of generating positive narrative visions for southern Africa. We convened a diverse group of participants in a workshop designed to develop radically different scenarios of good Anthropocenes, based on existing “seeds” of the future in the present. These seeds are innovative initiatives, practices, and ideas that are present in the world today, but are not currently widespread or dominant. As a result of a carefully facilitated process that encouraged a multiplicity of perspectives, creative immersion, and grappling with deeply held assumptions, four radical visions for southern Africa were produced. Although these futures are highly innovative and exploratory, they still link back to current real-world initiatives and contexts. The key learning that arose from this experience was the importance of the imagination for transformative thinking, the need to capitalize on diversity to push boundaries, and finally, the importance of creating a space that enables participants to engage with emotions, beliefs, and complexity. This method of engagement with the future has the potential to create transformative spaces that inspire and empower people to act toward positive Anthropocene visions despite the complexity of the sustainability challenge

Seeds of good anthropocenes: developing sustainability scenarios for Northern Europe

Scenario development helps people think about a broad variety of possible futures; however, the global environmental change community has thus far developed few positive scenarios for the future of the planet and humanity. Those that have been developed tend to focus on the role of a few common, large-scale external drivers, such as technology or environmental policy, even though pathways of positive change are often driven by surprising or bottom-up initiatives that most scenarios assume are unchanging. We describe an approach, pioneered in Southern Africa and tested here in a new context in Northern Europe, to developing scenarios using existing bottom-up transformative initiatives to examine plausible transitions towards positive, sustainable futures. By starting from existing, but marginal initiatives, as well as current trends, we were able to identify system characteristics that may play a key role in sustainability transitions (e.g., gender issues, inequity, governance, behavioral change) that are currently under-explored in global environmental scenarios. We suggest that this approach could be applied in other places to experiment further with the methodology and its potential applications, and to explore what transitions to desirables futures might be like in different places

Bright spots: seeds of a good Anthropocene

The scale, rate, and intensity of humans’ environmental impact has engendered broad discussion about how to find plausible pathways of development that hold the most promise for fostering a better future in the Anthropocene. However, the dominance of dystopian visions of irreversible environmental degradation and societal collapse, along with overly optimistic utopias and business‐as‐usual scenarios that lack insight and innovation, frustrate progress. Here, we present a novel approach to thinking about the future that builds on experiences drawn from a diversity of practices, worldviews, values, and regions that could accelerate the adoption of pathways to transformative change (change that goes beyond incremental improvements). Using an analysis of 100 initiatives, or “seeds of a good Anthropocene”, we find that emphasizing hopeful elements of existing practice offers the opportunity to: (1) understand the values and features that constitute a good Anthropocene, (2) determine the processes that lead to the emergence and growth of initiatives that fundamentally change human–environmental relationships, and (3) generate creative, bottom‐up scenarios that feature well‐articulated pathways toward a more positive future

Managing biological invasions: charting courses to desirable futures in the Cape Floristic Region

Invasive species alter the functioning of natural ecosystems, creating ‘‘novel ecosystems’’ comprising species occurring in combinations with no analogs within a given biome. This poses major challenges for managers who cannot rely exclusively on previous experiences. Multiple factors that drive invasion and which interact in complex ways demand innovative management approaches. We show the utility of scenario planning in considering options for management in a region with substantial problems with invasive alien plants: South Africa’s Cape Floristic Region. The approach allows us to identify the driving forces that shape the status and trajectories of major woody invasive plants and to identify sensible strategies by considering a set of scenarios based on the main uncertainties that encapsulate the linkages between the various components of the management of biological invasions. Attitudes of landowners and management capacity are shown to be the crucial uncertainties influencing the spread of major invasive species; axes based on these factors define our scenarios. Mapping current management projects onto scenario axes highlighted key differences among areas. These insights can assist in directing particular management units toward more desirable futures. Our study highlights the need to link social, political and legal constraints with ecological processes to assure the effectiveness of management operations in controlling biological invasions.Centre of Excellence for Invasion Biolog

Untersuchungen zu genregulatorischen Biomarkern für EGFR-Inhibitor-vermittelte Hautreaktionen

Bei der Behandlung von Tumoren mit Inhibitoren des epidermalen Wachstumsfaktorrezeptors (epidermal growth factor receptor inhibitor, EGFRI) treten bei der Mehrzahl der Patienten typische Hautreaktionen, wie akneiforme Exantheme, als Nebenwirkung auf. Da die Schwere dieser Hautreaktionen mit einer verlängerten Überlebenszeit der Patienten korreliert, wird sie in der klinischen Praxis als Marker für die Dosierung und prognostisch für den Therapieerfolg der EGFRI angesehen. Da die Hautreaktionen aber verzögert eintreten, sind alternative Biomarker wünschenswert, die sich schneller bestimmen lassen. Die Pathophysiologie der EGFRI-vermittelten Hautreaktionen ist noch nicht vollständig aufgeklärt. Wir untersuchen daher die zugrunde liegenden Mechanismen, insbesondere den Zusammenhang zwischen EGFR-Inhibition und der Produktion proinflammatorischer Zytokine in Keratinozyten (in vitro) und bei Patienten während einer Behandlung mit EGFR-Inhibitoren. In diesem Zusammenhang untersuchen wir auch den Einfluss regulatorischer Biomarker, wie z.B. microRNAs. Das Ziel ist es, mögliche prädiktive Biomarker für EGFRI-vermittelte Hautreaktionen zu identifizieren, um Patienten mit unzureichendem Therapieansprechen frühzeitig erkennen und gegebenenfalls schneller alternative Therapien beginnen zu können

Erratum to: Managing biological invasions: Charting courses to desirable futures in the Cape Floristic Region((2011),11,(321),DOI 10.1007/s10113-010-0151-3)

[No abstract available]Editoria

Managing biological invasions: Charting courses to desirable futures in the Cape Floristic Region

Invasive species alter the functioning of natural ecosystems, creating "novel ecosystems" comprising species occurring in combinations with no analogs within a given biome. This poses major challenges for managers who cannot rely exclusively on previous experiences. Multiple factors that drive invasion and which interact in complex ways demand innovative management approaches. We show the utility of scenario planning in considering options for management in a region with substantial problems with invasive alien plants: South Africa's Cape Floristic Region. The approach allows us to identify the driving forces that shape the status and trajectories of major woody invasive plants and to identify sensible strategies by considering a set of scenarios based on the main uncertainties that encapsulate the linkages between the various components of the management of biological invasions. Attitudes of landowners and management capacity are shown to be the crucial uncertainties influencing the spread of major invasive species; axes based on these factors define our scenarios. Mapping current management projects onto scenario axes highlighted key differences among areas. These insights can assist in directing particular management units toward more desirable futures. Our study highlights the need to link social, political and legal constraints with ecological processes to assure the effectiveness of management operations in controlling biological invasions. © 2010 Springer-Verlag.Articl

Seeds of good anthropocenes: developing sustainability scenarios for Northern Europe

Scenario development helps people think about a broad variety of possible futures; however, the global environmental change community has thus far developed few positive scenarios for the future of the planet and humanity. Those that have been developed tend to focus on the role of a few common, large-scale external drivers, such as technology or environmental policy, even though pathways of positive change are often driven by surprising or bottom-up initiatives that most scenarios assume are unchanging. We describe an approach, pioneered in Southern Africa and tested here in a new context in Northern Europe, to developing scenarios using existing bottom-up transformative initiatives to examine plausible transitions towards positive, sustainable futures. By starting from existing, but marginal initiatives, as well as current trends, we were able to identify system characteristics that may play a key role in sustainability transitions (e.g., gender issues, inequity, governance, behavioral change) that are currently under-explored in global environmental scenarios. We suggest that this approach could be applied in other places to experiment further with the methodology and its potential applications, and to explore what transitions to desirables futures might be like in different places

Scenarios of good anthropocenes in southern Africa

In the rapidly changing and uncertain world of the Anthropocene, positive visions of the future could play a crucial role in catalysing deep social-ecological transformations to help guide humanity towards more sustainable and equitable futures. This paper presents the outcomes from a novel visioning process designed to elicit creative and inspirational future scenarios for southern Africa. The approach based scenario development on “seeds of good Anthropocenes”, i.e. existing initiatives or technologies that represent current, local-scale innovations for sustainability. A selection of seeds was used to create four distinct, positive visions in a participatory workshop process. Common themes that independently emerged in all four visions were i) decentralized governance and decision-making; ii) a strong emphasis on equity and empathy; iii) high levels of connectedness between people; and iv) a reinforced, respectful relationship with nature. The visions mainly differ in the extent of fusion between people and technology in everyday life, and how much nature plays a role in defining the human experience. The narratives presented here describe worlds that have undergone a more significant paradigm shift towards shared human values and stewardship of resources than is explored in most other ambient narratives for the region. These “Good Anthropocene” scenarios therefore demonstrate more radical, previously unimagined ways of thinking about sustainability futures on the African continent and beyond