Shrinking the lymphatic filariasis map of Ethiopia: reassessing the population at risk through nationwide mapping

BACKGROUND Mapping of lymphatic filariasis (LF) is essential for the delineation of endemic implementation units and determining the population at risk that will be targeted for mass drug administration (MDA). Prior to the current study, only 116 of the 832 woredas (districts) in Ethiopia had been mapped for LF. The aim of this study was to perform a nationwide mapping exercise to determine the number of people that should be targeted for MDA in 2016 when national coverage was anticipated. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDING A two-stage cluster purposive sampling was used to conduct a community-based cross-sectional survey for an integrated mapping of LF and podoconiosis, in seven regional states and two city administrations. Two communities in each woreda were purposely selected using the World Health Organization (WHO) mapping strategy for LF based on sampling 100 individuals per community and two purposely selected communities per woreda. Overall, 130 166 people were examined in 1315 communities in 658 woredas. In total, 140 people were found to be positive for circulating LF antigen by immunochromatographic card test (ICT) in 89 communities. Based on WHO guidelines, 75 of the 658 woredas surveyed in the nine regions were found to be endemic for LF with a 2016 projected population of 9 267 410 residing in areas of active disease transmission. Combining these results with other data it is estimated that 11 580 010 people in 112 woredas will be exposed to infection in 2016. CONCLUSIONS We have conducted nationwide mapping of LF in Ethiopia and demonstrated that the number of people living in LF endemic areas is 60% lower than current estimates. We also showed that integrated mapping of multiple NTDs is feasible and cost effective and if properly planned, can be quickly achieved at national scale

Integrated morbidity management for lymphatic filariasis and podoconiosis, Ethiopia

Problem Lymphatic filariasis and podoconiosis are the major causes of tropical lymphoedema in Ethiopia. The diseases require the similar provision of care, but in 2012 the Ethiopian health system did not integrate the morbidity management. Approach To establish health-care services for integrated lymphoedema morbidity management, the health ministry and partners used existing governmental structures. Integrated disease mapping was done in 659 out of the 817 districts, to identify endemic districts. To inform resource allocation, trained health extension workers did integrated disease burden assessments in 56 districts with a high clinical burden. To ensure standard provision of care, the health ministry developed an integrated lymphatic filariasis and podoconiosis morbidity management guideline, containing a treatment algorithm and a defined package of care. Experienced professionals on lymphoedema management trained government-employed health workers on integrated morbidity management. To monitor the integration, an indicator on the number of lymphoedema-treated patients was included in the national health management information system. Local setting In 2014, only 24% (87) of the 363 health facilities surveyed provided lymphatic filariasis services, while 12% (44) provided podoconiosis services. Relevant changes To date, 542 health workers from 53 health centres in 24 districts have been trained on integrated morbidity management. Between July 2013 and June 2016, the national health management information system has recorded 46 487 treated patients from 189 districts. Lessons learnt In Ethiopia, an integrated approach for lymphatic filariasis and podoconiosis morbidity management was feasible. The processes used could be applicable in other settings where these diseases are co-endemic

The national programme to eliminate lymphatic filariasis from Ethiopia

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is one of the most debilitating and disfiguring diseases common in Ethiopia and is caused by Wuchereria bancrofti. Mapping for LF has shown that 70 woredas (districts) are endemic and 5.9 million people are estimated to be at risk. The national government’s LF elimination programme commenced in 2009 in 5 districts integrated with the onchocerciasis programme. The programme developed gradually and has shown significant progress over the past 6 years, reaching 100% geographical coverage for mass drug administration (MDA) by 2016. To comply with the global LF elimination goals an integrated morbidity management and disability prevention (MMDP) guideline and a burden assessment programme has also been developed; MMDP protocols and a hydrocoele surgical handbook produced for country-wide use. In Ethiopia, almost all LF endemic districts are co-endemic with malaria and vector control aspects of the activities are conducted in the context of malaria programme as the vectors for both diseases are mosquitoes. In order to monitor the elimination, 11 sentinel and spot-check sites have been established and baseline information has been collected. Although significant achievements have been achieved in the scale up of the LF elimination programme, there is still a need to strengthen operational research to generate programme-relevant evidence, to increase access to morbidity management services, and to improve monitoring and evaluation of the LF programme. However, the current status of implementation of the LF national programme indicates that Ethiopia is poised to achieve the 2020 goal of elimination of LF. Nevertheless, to achieve this goal, high and sustained treatment coverage and strong monitoring and evaluation of the programme are essential

Integrated mapping of lymphatic filariasis and podoconiosis: lessons learnt from Ethiopia

BACKGROUND The World Health Organization (WHO), international donors and partners have emphasized the importance of integrated control of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Integrated mapping of NTDs is a first step for integrated planning of programmes, proper resource allocation and monitoring progress of control. Integrated mapping has several advantages over disease specific mapping by reducing costs and enabling co-endemic areas to be more precisely identified. We designed and conducted integrated mapping of lymphatic filariasis (LF) and podoconiosis in Ethiopia; here we present the methods, challenges and lessons learnt. METHODS Integrated mapping of 1315 communities across Ethiopia was accomplished within three months. Within these communities, 129,959 individuals provided blood samples that were tested for circulating Wuchereria bancrofti antigen using immunochromatographic card tests (ICT). Wb123 antibody tests were used to further establish exposure to LF in areas where at least one ICT positive individual was detected. A clinical algorithm was used to reliably diagnose podoconiosis by excluding other potential causes of lymphoedema of the lower limb. RESULTS A total of 8110 individuals with leg swelling were interviewed and underwent physical examination. Smartphones linked to a central database were used to collect data, which facilitated real-time data entry and reduced costs compared to traditional paper-based data collection approach; their inbuilt Geographic Positioning System (GPS) function enabled simultaneous capture of geographical coordinates. The integrated approach led to efficient use of resources and rapid mapping of an enormous geographical area and was well received by survey staff and collaborators. Mobile based technology can be used for such large scale studies in resource constrained settings such as Ethiopia, with minimal challenges. CONCLUSIONS This was the first integrated mapping of podoconiosis and LF globally. Integrated mapping of podoconiosis and LF is feasible and, if properly planned, can be quickly achieved at nationwide scale

Epidemiology and individual, household and geographical risk factors of podoconiosis in ethiopia: results from the first nationwide mapping

Although podoconiosis is one of the major causes of tropical lymphoedema and is endemic in Ethiopia its epidemiology and risk factors are poorly understood. Individual-level data for 129,959 individuals from 1,315 communities in 659 woreda (districts) were collected for a nationwide integrated survey of lymphatic filariasis and podoconiosis. Blood samples were tested for circulating Wuchereria bancrofti antigen using immunochromatographic card tests. A clinical algorithm was used to reach a diagnosis of podoconiosis by excluding other potential causes of lymphoedema of the lower limb. Bayesian multilevel models were used to identify individual and environmental risk factors. Overall, 8,110 of 129,959 (6.2%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 6.1-6.4%) surveyed individuals were identified with lymphoedema of the lower limb, of whom 5,253 (4.0%, 95% CI 3.9-4.1%) were confirmed to be podoconiosis cases. In multivariable analysis, being female, older, unmarried, washing the feet less frequently than daily, and being semiskilled or unemployed were significantly associated with increased risk of podoconiosis. Attending formal education and living in a house with a covered floor were associated with decreased risk of podoconiosis. Podoconiosis exhibits marked geographical variation across Ethiopia, with variation in risk associated with variation in rainfall, enhanced vegetation index, and altitude

Mapping and modelling the geographical distribution and environmental limits of podoconiosis in Ethiopia

BACKGROUND Ethiopia is assumed to have the highest burden of podoconiosis globally, but the geographical distribution and environmental limits and correlates are yet to be fully investigated. In this paper we use data from a nationwide survey to address these issues. METHODOLOGY Our analyses are based on data arising from the integrated mapping of podoconiosis and lymphatic filariasis (LF) conducted in 2013, supplemented by data from an earlier mapping of LF in western Ethiopia in 2008-2010. The integrated mapping used woreda (district) health offices' reports of podoconiosis and LF to guide selection of survey sites. A suite of environmental and climatic data and boosted regression tree (BRT) modelling was used to investigate environmental limits and predict the probability of podoconiosis occurrence. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS Data were available for 141,238 individuals from 1,442 communities in 775 districts from all nine regional states and two city administrations of Ethiopia. In 41.9% of surveyed districts no cases of podoconiosis were identified, with all districts in Affar, Dire Dawa, Somali and Gambella regional states lacking the disease. The disease was most common, with lymphoedema positivity rate exceeding 5%, in the central highlands of Ethiopia, in Amhara, Oromia and Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples regional states. BRT modelling indicated that the probability of podoconiosis occurrence increased with increasing altitude, precipitation and silt fraction of soil and decreased with population density and clay content. Based on the BRT model, we estimate that in 2010, 34.9 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 20.2-51.7) million people (i.e. 43.8%; 95% CI: 25.3-64.8% of Ethiopia's national population) lived in areas environmentally suitable for the occurrence of podoconiosis. CONCLUSIONS Podoconiosis is more widespread in Ethiopia than previously estimated, but occurs in distinct geographical regions that are tied to identifiable environmental factors. The resultant maps can be used to guide programme planning and implementation and estimate disease burden in Ethiopia. This work provides a framework with which the geographical limits of podoconiosis could be delineated at a continental scale

Multiplex serology demonstrate cumulative prevalence and spatial distribution of malaria in Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Measures of malaria burden using microscopy and rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) in cross-sectional household surveys may incompletely describe the burden of malaria in low-transmission settings. This study describes the pattern of malaria transmission in Ethiopia using serological antibody estimates derived from a nationwide household survey completed in 2015. METHODS: Dried blood spot (DBS) samples were collected during the Ethiopian Malaria Indicator Survey in 2015 from malarious areas across Ethiopia. Samples were analysed using bead-based multiplex assays for IgG antibodies for six Plasmodium antigens: four human malaria species-specific merozoite surface protein-1 19kD antigens (MSP-1) and Apical Membrane Antigen-1 (AMA-1) for Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax. Seroprevalence was estimated by age, elevation and region. The seroconversion rate was estimated using a reversible catalytic model fitted with maximum likelihood methods. RESULTS: Of the 10,278 DBS samples available, 93.6% (9622/10,278) had valid serological results. The mean age of participants was 15.8 years and 53.3% were female. National seroprevalence for antibodies to P. falciparum was 32.1% (95% confidence interval (CI) 29.8-34.4) and 25.0% (95% CI 22.7-27.3) to P. vivax. Estimated seroprevalences for Plasmodium malariae and Plasmodium ovale were 8.6% (95% CI 7.6-9.7) and 3.1% (95% CI 2.5-3.8), respectively. For P. falciparum seroprevalence estimates were significantly higher at lower elevations (< 2000 m) compared to higher (2000-2500 m) (aOR 4.4; p < 0.01). Among regions, P. falciparum seroprevalence ranged from 11.0% (95% CI 8.8-13.7) in Somali to 65.0% (95% CI 58.0-71.4) in Gambela Region and for P. vivax from 4.0% (95% CI 2.6-6.2) in Somali to 36.7% (95% CI 30.0-44.1) in Amhara Region. Models fitted to measure seroconversion rates showed variation nationally and by elevation, region, antigen type, and within species. CONCLUSION: Using multiplex serology assays, this study explored the cumulative malaria burden and regional dynamics of the four human malarias in Ethiopia. High malaria burden was observed in the northwest compared to the east. High transmission in the Gambela and Benishangul-Gumuz Regions and the neglected presence of P. malariae and P. ovale may require programmatic attention. The use of a multiplex assay for antibody detection in low transmission settings has the potential to act as a more sensitive biomarker

Subnational Projections of Lymphatic Filariasis Elimination Targets in Ethiopia to Support National Level Policy.

Background Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a debilitating, poverty-promoting, neglected tropical disease (NTD) targeted for worldwide elimination as a public health problem (EPHP) by 2030. Evaluating progress towards this target for national programmes is challenging, due to differences in disease transmission and interventions at the subnational level. Mathematical models can help address these challenges by capturing spatial heterogeneities and evaluating progress towards LF elimination and how different interventions could be leveraged to achieve elimination by 2030. Methods Here we used a novel approach to combine historical geo-spatial disease prevalence maps of LF in Ethiopia with 3 contemporary disease transmission models to project trends in infection under different intervention scenarios at subnational level. Results Our findings show that local context, particularly the coverage of interventions, is an important determinant for the success of control and elimination programmes. Furthermore, although current strategies seem sufficient to achieve LF elimination by 2030, some areas may benefit from the implementation of alternative strategies, such as using enhanced coverage or increased frequency, to accelerate progress towards the 2030 targets. Conclusions The combination of geospatial disease prevalence maps of LF with transmission models and intervention histories enables the projection of trends in infection at the subnational level under different control scenarios in Ethiopia. This approach, which adapts transmission models to local settings, may be useful to inform the design of optimal interventions at the subnational level in other LF endemic regions

Geostatistical modeling of malaria endemicity using serological indicators of exposure collected through school surveys.

Ethiopia has a diverse ecology and geography resulting in spatial and temporal variation in malaria transmission. Evidence-based strategies are thus needed to monitor transmission intensity and target interventions. A purposive selection of dried blood spots collected during cross-sectional school-based surveys in Oromia Regional State, Ethiopia, were tested for presence of antibodies against Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax antigens. Spatially explicit binomial models of seroprevalence were created for each species using a Bayesian framework, and used to predict seroprevalence at 5 km resolution across Oromia. School seroprevalence showed a wider prevalence range than microscopy for both P. falciparum (0-50% versus 0-12.7%) and P. vivax (0-53.7% versus 0-4.5%), respectively. The P. falciparum model incorporated environmental predictors and spatial random effects, while P. vivax seroprevalence first-order trends were not adequately explained by environmental variables, and a spatial smoothing model was developed. This is the first demonstration of serological indicators being used to detect large-scale heterogeneity in malaria transmission using samples from cross-sectional school-based surveys. The findings support the incorporation of serological indicators into periodic large-scale surveillance such as Malaria Indicator Surveys, and with particular utility for low transmission and elimination settings

Lymphatic filariasis in western Ethiopia with special emphasis on prevalence of Wuchereria bancrofti antigenaemia in and around onchocerciasis endemic areas

Lymphatic filariasis is known to be endemic in Gambella Region, western Ethiopia, but the full extent of its endemicity in other regions is unknown. A national mapping program for Ethiopia was initiated in 2008. This report summarizes initial data on the prevalence of Wuchereria bancrofti antigenaemia based on surveys carried out in a sampled population of 11 685 individuals living in 125 villages (112 districts) of western Ethiopia. The overall prevalence rate was 3.7%, but high geographical clustering and variation in prevalence (ranging from 0% to more than 50%) was found. The prevalence of hydrocele (in males) and lymphoedema of limbs was 0.8% and 3.6% respectively. Significantly higher (χ2 = 49.6; P < 0.01) prevalence of antigenaemia was noted in known onchocerciasis endemic districts (4.7%) compared to non-onchocerciasis endemic districts (2.3%). Thirty-four of the 112 districts, with a population of 1 547 685 in 2007, were found to be endemic. Of these, the numbers of districts with prevalence rates of >20%, 10–20% and 5–9% were nine, 14 and 20 respectively. Twenty-nine of these 34 endemic districts were found in three regions: Gambella Region (seven districts), Beneshangul-Gumuz Region (13 districts), and Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples' Region (SNNPR) (nine districts). The other five were from Amhara (two districts) and Oromia (three districts) regions. A tentative distribution map has been drawn to facilitate the launching of the Ethiopia LF elimination program