Sophisticated Inference.

Active inference offers a first principle account of sentient behavior, from which special and important cases-for example, reinforcement learning, active learning, Bayes optimal inference, Bayes optimal design-can be derived. Active inference finesses the exploitation-exploration dilemma in relation to prior preferences by placing information gain on the same footing as reward or value. In brief, active inference replaces value functions with functionals of (Bayesian) beliefs, in the form of an expected (variational) free energy. In this letter, we consider a sophisticated kind of active inference using a recursive form of expected free energy. Sophistication describes the degree to which an agent has beliefs about beliefs. We consider agents with beliefs about the counterfactual consequences of action for states of affairs and beliefs about those latent states. In other words, we move from simply considering beliefs about "what would happen if I did that" to "what I would believe about what would happen if I did that." The recursive form of the free energy functional effectively implements a deep tree search over actions and outcomes in the future. Crucially, this search is over sequences of belief states as opposed to states per se. We illustrate the competence of this scheme using numerical simulations of deep decision problems

Observational signatures of disk and jet misalignment in images of accreting black holes

Black hole accretion is one of nature's most efficient energy extraction processes. When gas falls in, a significant fraction of its gravitational binding energy is either converted into radiation or flows outwards in the form of black hole-driven jets and disk-driven winds. Recently, the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT), an Earth-size sub-millimetre radio interferometer, captured the first images of M87's black hole. These images were analysed and interpreted using general-relativistic magnetohydrodynamics (GRMHD) models of accretion disks with rotation axes aligned with the black hole spin axis. However, since infalling gas is often insensitive to the black hole spin direction, misalignment between accretion disk and black hole spin may be a common occurrence in nature. In this work, we use the general-relativistic radiative transfer (GRRT) code \texttt{BHOSS} to calculate the first synthetic radio images of (highly) tilted disk/jet models generated by our GPU-accelerated GRMHD code \texttt{HAMR}. While the tilt does not have a noticeable effect on the system dynamics beyond a few tens of gravitational radii from the black hole, the warping of the disk and jet can imprint observable signatures in EHT images on smaller scales. Comparing the images from our GRMHD models to the 43 GHz and 230 GHz EHT images of M87, we find that M87 may feature a tilted disk/jet system. Further, tilted disks and jets display significant time variability in the 230 GHz flux that can be further tested by longer-duration EHT observations of M87

Correction to: Assessing the impact of hurricane Fiona on the coast of PEI National Park and implications for the effectiveness of beach‑dune management policies

This article has been published with incorrect captions for Figs. 7, 8 and 9. The correct figures and captions are presented below. (Figure presented.) (Figure presented.) (Figure presented.) ERA5 hindcast significant wave height data offshore of Brackley Beach, for intense storms such as Hurricanes Dorian and Fiona, as well as recent Nor'easter storms in January of 2022 Significant wave height and water level data during Fiona. ERA5 is the plot of hourly estimates of wave height for the offshore hindcast point closest to Brackley Beach; Buoy Swh is the significant wave height (Hs) measured by Fisheries and Oceans Canada’s AZMP Viking wave buoy located between PEI and Îsles de la Madeleine; Gauge WL is water level measured by a still water gauge located on Lennox Island and operated by the PEI Storm Surge Early Warning System; and the tide predictions are provided by the Canadian Hydrographic Service for nearby Rustico Harbor, which is located approximately 4 km west of Brackley and 12 km east of Cavendish Examples of beach and dune management at Cavendish Beach: A) View looking east of the main beach at Cavendish in June 2016, two years after restoration began on a large blowout resulting from trampling next to the boardwalk access point. Repurposed Christmas trees are used as a substitute for sand fences to trap sand, and marram grass is planted in the area between the trees. Fencing was used to keep visitors off the regeneration area; B) View looking east of the beach in May 2022 showing the restored foredune on the right and virtual fencing along the high tide line to keep visitors away from the vegetation forming embryo dunes along the base of the stoss slope of the foredune. Signage, visible to the right of the buried tree trunk on the stoss slope, is used to inform visitors of the need to keep off the foredune The original article has been corrected

H-AMR: A New GPU-accelerated GRMHD Code for Exascale Computing With 3D Adaptive Mesh Refinement and Local Adaptive Time-stepping

General-relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations have revolutionized our understanding of black-hole accretion. Here, we present a GPU-accelerated GRMHD code H-AMR with multi-faceted optimizations that, collectively, accelerate computation by 2-5 orders of magnitude for a wide range of applications. Firstly, it involves a novel implementation of a spherical-polar grid with 3D adaptive mesh refinement that operates in each of the 3 dimensions independently. This allows us to circumvent the Courant condition near the polar singularity, which otherwise cripples high-res computational performance. Secondly, we demonstrate that local adaptive time-stepping (LAT) on a logarithmic spherical-polar grid accelerates computation by a factor of $\lesssim10$ compared to traditional hierarchical time-stepping approaches. Jointly, these unique features lead to an effective speed of $\sim10^9$ zone-cycles-per-second-per-node on 5,400 NVIDIA V100 GPUs (i.e., 900 nodes of the OLCF Summit supercomputer). We demonstrate its computational performance by presenting the first GRMHD simulation of a tilted thin accretion disk threaded by a toroidal magnetic field around a rapidly spinning black hole. With an effective resolution of $13$,$440\times4$,$608\times8$,$092$ cells, and a total of $\lesssim22$ billion cells and $\sim0.65\times10^8$ timesteps, it is among the largest astrophysical simulations ever performed. We find that frame-dragging by the black hole tears up the disk into two independently precessing sub-disks. The innermost sub-disk rotation axis intermittently aligns with the black hole spin, demonstrating for the first time that such long-sought alignment is possible in the absence of large-scale poloidal magnetic fields.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figures, submitted to MNRAS, for the YouTube playlist, see https://youtu.be/rIOjKUfzcv

Schottky Diodes on ZnO Thin Films Grown by Plasma-Enhanced Atomic Layer Deposition

Enhancement of the properties of zinc oxide (ZnO)-based Schottky diodes has been explored using a combination of plasma-enhanced atomic layer deposition (PE-ALD) ZnO thin films and silver oxide Schottky contacts deposited by reactive radio-frequency sputtering. The electrical properties of the ZnO thin films were systematically tuned by varying the deposition temperature and oxygen plasma time during PE-ALD to optimize the performance of the diode. Low temperature (80 °C) coupled with relatively long oxygen plasma time (>30 s) PE-ALD is the key to produce ZnO films with net doping concentration lower than 10 17 cm -3 . Under the optimal deposition conditions identified, the diode shows an ideality factor of 1.33, an effective barrier height of 0.80 eV, and an ON/OFF ratio of 3.11 × 10 5