User, Use & Utility Research - The Digital User as New Design Perspective in Business and Information Systems Engineering

Business and Information Systems Engineer- ing (BISE) is at a turning point. Planning, de- signing, developing and operating IT used to be a management task of a few elites in pub- lic ad-ministrations and corporations. But the continuous digitization of nearly all areas of life changes the IT landscape fundamentally. Success in this new era requires putting the human perspective – the digital user – at the very heart of the new digitized service-led economy. BISE faces not just a temporary trend but a complex socio-technical phenomenon with far-reaching implications. The challenges are manifold and have major consequences for all stakeholders, both in information systems and management research as well as in practice. Corporate processes have to be re-designed from the ground up, starting with the user’s perspective, thus putting usage experience and utility of the individual center stage. The digital service economy leads to highly personalized application systems while orga- nizational functions are being fragmented. Entirely new ways of interacting with infor- mation systems, in particular beyond desk- top IT, are being invented and established. These fundamental challenges require novel approaches with regards to innovation and development methods as well as adequate concepts for enterprise or service system ar- chitectures. Gigantic amounts of data are be- ing generated at an accelerating rate by an in- creasing number of devices – data that need to be managed. In order to tackle these extraordinary chal- lenges we introduce ‘user, use & utility’ as a new field of BISE that focuses primarily on the digital user, his or her usage behavior and the utility associated with system usage in the digitized service-led economy. The research objectives encompass the de- velopment of theories, methods and tools for systematic requirement elicitation, sys- tems design, and business development for successful Business and Information Systems Engineering in a digitized economy – infor- mation systems that digital users enjoy us- ing. This challenge calls for leveraging in- sights from various scientific disciplines such as Design, Engineering, Computer Science, Psychology and Sociology. BISE can provide an integrated perspective, thereby assuming a pivotal role within the digitized service led economy

User, Use & Utility Research: The Digital User as New Design Perspective in Business andInformation Systems Engineering

Business and Information Systems Engineering (BISE) is at a turning point. Planning, designing, developing and operating IT used to be a management task of a few elites in public ad-ministrations and corporations. But the continuous digitization of nearly all areas of life changes the IT landscape fundamentally. Success in this new era requires putting the human perspective - the digital user - at the very heart of the new digitized service-led economy. BISE faces not just a temporary trend but a complex socio-technical phenomenon with far-reaching implications. The challenges are manifold and have major consequences for all stakeholders, both in information systems and management research as well as in practice. Corporate processes have to be re-designed from the ground up, starting with the user's perspective, thus putting usage experience and utility of the individual center stage. The digital service economy leads to highly personalized application systems while organizational functions are being fragmented. Entirely new ways of interacting with information systems, in particular beyond desktop IT, are being invented and established. These fundamental challenges require novel approaches with regards to innovation and development methods as well as adequate concepts for enterprise or service system architectures. Gigantic amounts of data are being generated at an accelerating rate by an increasing number of devices - data that need to be managed. In order to tackle these extraordinary challenges we introduce ‘user, use & utility' as a new field of BISE that focuses primarily on the digital user, his or her usage behavior and the utility associated with system usage in the digitized service-led economy. The research objectives encompass the development of theories, methods and tools for systematic requirement elicitation, systems design, and business development for successful Business and Information Systems Engineering in a digitized economy - information systems that digital users enjoy using. This challenge calls for leveraging insights from various scientific disciplines such as Design, Engineering, Computer Science, Psychology and Sociology. BISE can provide an integrated perspective, thereby assuming a pivotal role within the digitized service led economy

Projections of global warming-induced impacts on winter storm losses in the German private household sector

We present projections of winter storm-induced insured losses in the German residential building sector for the 21st century. With this aim, two structurally most independent downscaling methods and one hybrid downscaling method are applied to a 3-member ensemble of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 A1B scenario simulations. One method uses dynamical downscaling of intense winter storm events in the global model, and a transfer function to relate regional wind speeds to losses. The second method is based on a reshuffling of present day weather situations and sequences taking into account the change of their frequencies according to the linear temperature trends of the global runs. The third method uses statistical-dynamical downscaling, considering frequency changes of the occurrence of storm-prone weather patterns, and translation into loss by using empirical statistical distributions. The A1B scenario ensemble was downscaled by all three methods until 2070, and by the (statistical-) dynamical methods until 2100. Furthermore, all methods assume a constant statistical relationship between meteorology and insured losses and no developments other than climate change, such as in constructions or claims management. The study utilizes data provided by the German Insurance Association encompassing 24 years and with district-scale resolution. Compared to 1971–2000, the downscaling methods indicate an increase of 10-year return values (i.e. loss ratios per return period) of 6–35 % for 2011–2040, of 20–30 % for 2041–2070, and of 40–55 % for 2071–2100, respectively. Convolving various sources of uncertainty in one confidence statement (data-, loss model-, storm realization-, and Pareto fit-uncertainty), the return-level confidence interval for a return period of 15 years expands by more than a factor of two. Finally, we suggest how practitioners can deal with alternative scenarios or possible natural excursions of observed losses

Ensemble simulations for the RCP8.5-Scenario

The mean climatic development for Germany was investigated within the period 2031/60 in comparison to the situation in the observational period 1981/2010. The RCP8.5-Scenario of the IPCC was used because it reflects the actual CO2-emissions very well. On this basis the temperature trend for Germany was estimated using 21 GCM runs up to the year 2100. This temperature trend was the driving force for the statistical regional climate model STARS. 100 ensemble runs of the model STARS were compared with the scenario period and with the observational period. Temperature, precipitation, climatic water balance and some additional parameters were analyzed. One important result is the change in the distribution of precipitation in Germany during the year – decrease in summer, increase in winter. Finally the future climate development leads to a negative climatic water balance over the whole year

Table 1. Tree growth index and reconstructed precipitation series from 515 BC to AD 1993 based on the archaeological and living tree ring datasets from Dulan and Shenge, China

Annual precipitation for the last 2,500 years was reconstructed for northeastern Qinghai from living and archaeological juniper trees. A dominant feature of the precipitation of this area is a high degree of variability in mean rainfall at annual, decadal, and centennial scales, with many wet and dry periods that are corroborated by other paleoclimatic indicators. Reconstructed values of annual precipitation vary mostly from 100 to 300 mm and thus are no different from the modern instrumental record in Dulan. However, relatively dry years with below-average precipitation occurred more frequently in the past than in the present. Periods of relatively dry years occurred during 74-25 BC, AD 51-375, 426-500, 526-575, 626-700, 1100-1225, 1251-1325, 1451-1525, 1651-1750 and 1801-1825. Periods with a relatively wet climate occurred during AD 376-425, 576-625, 951-1050, 1351-1375, 1551-1600 and the present. This variability is probably related to latitudinal positions of winter frontal storms. Another key feature of precipitation in this area is an apparently direct relationship between interannual variability in rainfall with temperature, whereby increased warming in the future might lead to increased flooding and droughts. Such increased climatic variability might then impact human societies of the area, much as the climate has done for the past 2,500 years