Using Hybrid Agent-Based Systems to Model Spatially-Influenced Retail Markets

One emerging area of agent-based modelling is retail markets; however, there are problems with modelling such systems. The vast size of such markets makes individual-level modelling, for example of customers, difficult and this is particularly true where the markets are spatially complex. There is an emerging recognition that the power of agent-based systems is enhanced when integrated with other AI-based and conventional approaches. The resulting hybrid models are powerful tools that combine the flexibility of the agent-based methodology with the strengths of more traditional modelling. Such combinations allow us to consider agent-based modelling of such large-scale and complex retail markets. In particular, this paper examines the application of a hybrid agent-based model to a retail petrol market. An agent model was constructed and experiments were conducted to determine whether the trends and patterns of the retail petrol market could be replicated. Consumer behaviour was incorporated by the inclusion of a spatial interaction (SI) model and a network component. The model is shown to reproduce the spatial patterns seen in the real market, as well as well known behaviours of the market such as the "rocket and feathers" effect. In addition the model was successful at predicting the long term profitability of individual retailers. The results show that agent-based modelling has the ability to improve on existing approaches to modelling retail markets.Agents, Spatial Interaction Model, Retail Markets, Networks

Using the Dynamic Microsimulation MINOS to Evidence the Effect of Energy Crisis Income Support Policy (Short Paper)

Rates of anxiety and depression are increasing due to financial stress caused by energy pricing with over half of UK homes unable to afford comfortable heating. UK Government policies to address this energy crisis have been implemented with limited evidence and substantial criticism. This paper applies the dynamic microsimulation MINOS, which utilises longitudinal Understanding Society data, to evidence change in mental well-being under the Energy Price Cap Guarantee and Energy Bill Support Scheme Policies. Results demonstrate an overall improvement in Short Form 12 Mental Component Score (SF12-MCS) both on aggregate and over data zone spatial areas for the Glasgow City region compared with a baseline of no policy intervention. This is work in progress and discussion highlights potential future work in other energy policy areas, such as Net Zero

Understanding the Complex Behaviours of Electric Vehicle Drivers with Agent-Based Models in Glasgow

With the new policy aimed at advancing the phase-out date for the sale of new petrol and diesel cars and vans to 2030, the electric vehicle (EV) market share is expected to rise significantly in the coming years. This necessitates a deeper understanding of the driving and charging behaviours of EV drivers to accurately estimate future charging demand distribution and benefit for future infrastructure development. Traditional data-based approaches are limited in illustrating the granular spatiotemporal dynamics of individuals. Recent studies that use conventional vehicle trajectory data also have the sampling bias problem, despite their analyses being conducted at a finer resolution. Moreover, studies that use simulation approaches are often either based on limited behaviour rules for EV drivers or implemented in an artificial grid environment, showing limitations in reflecting real-world situations. To address the challenges, this work introduces an agent-based model (ABM) with complex behaviour rules for EV drivers, taking into account the drivers’ sensitivities to financial and time costs, as well as route deviation. By integrating the simulation model with the origin and destination information of drivers, this work can contribute to a better understanding of the behaviour patterns of EV drivers

Estimating health over space and time: a review of spatial microsimulation applied to public health

There is an ongoing demand for data on population health, for reasons of resource allocation, future planning and crucially to address inequalities in health between people and between populations. Although there are regular sources of data at coarse spatial scales, such as countries or large sub-national units such as states, there is often a lack of good quality health data at the local level. One method to develop reliable estimates of population health outcomes is spatial microsimulation, an approach that has its roots in economic studies. Here, we share a review of this method for estimating health in populations, explaining the different approaches available and examples where the method is applied successfully for creating both static and dynamic populations. Recent notable advances in the method that allow uncertainty to be represented are highlighted, along with the evolving approaches to validation that are an ongoing challenge in small-area estimation. The summary serves as a primer for academics new to the area of research as well as an overview for non-academic researchers who consider using these models for policy evaluations

Exascale Agent-Based Modelling for Policy Evaluation in Real-Time (ExAMPLER)

Exascale computing can potentially revolutionise the way in which we design and build agent-based models (ABM) through, for example, enabling scaling up, as well as robust calibration and validation. At present, there is no exascale computing operating with ABM (that we are aware of), but pockets of work using High Performance Computing (HPC). While exascale computing is expected to become more widely available towards the latter half of this decade, the ABM community is largely unaware of the requirements for exascale computing for agent-based modelling to support policy evaluation. This project will engage with the ABM community to understand what computing resources are currently used, what we need (both in terms of hardware and software) and to set out a roadmap by which to make it happen

Agent-based modeling and the city: A gallery of applications

Agent-based modeling is a powerful simulation technique that allows one to build artificial worlds and populate these worlds with individual agents. Each agent or actor has unique behaviors and rules which govern their interactions with each other and their environment. It is through these interactions that more macro-phenomena emerge: for example, how individual pedestrians lead to the emergence of crowds. Over the past two decades, with the growth of computational power and data, agent-based models have evolved into one of the main paradigms for urban modeling and for understanding the various processes which shape our cities. Agent-based models have been developed to explore a vast range of urban phenomena from that of micro-movement of pedestrians over seconds to that of urban growth over decades and many other issues in between. In this chapter, we introduce readers to agent-based modeling from simple abstract applications to those representing space utilizing geographical data not only for the creation of the artificial worlds but also for the validation and calibration of such models through a series of example applications. We will then discuss how big data, data mining, and machine learning techniques are advancing the field of agent-based modeling and demonstrate how such data and techniques can be leveraged into these models, giving us a new way to explore cities

Measuring and assessing regional education inequalities in China under changing policy regimes

China’s uneven regional economic development and decentralisation of its education system have led to increasing regional education disparities. Here, we introduce a new multidimensional index, the Index of Regional Education Advantage (IREA), underpinned by Amartya Sen’s capability approach, to evaluate the effectiveness of policies targeted at reducing regional/provincial educational inequalities in China since 2005. The analysis of the distribution of IREA scores and the decomposition of the index reveals that education in north-eastern China is better than in the south-west part of the country, a pattern which lacks conformity with the eastern, middle and western macro-divisions adopted by Central Government as the basis of policy implementation. In addition, the education of migrant children and the low transfer rate into high schools are identified as key issues requiring Government attention

Climate mitigation and adaptation action in the UK and devolved nations - A typology

Typology document generated by policy review to inform a systematic review search strateg