Statistical aspects of credit scoring

This thesis is concerned with statistical aspects of credit scoring, the process of determining how likely an applicant for credit is to default with repayments. In Chapters 1-4 a detailed introduction to credit scoring methodology is presented, including evaluation of previous published work on credit scoring and a review of discrimination and classification techniques. In Chapter 5 we describe different approaches to measuring the absolute and relative performance of credit scoring models. Two significance tests are proposed for comparing the bad rate amongst the accepts (or the error rate) from two classifiers. In Chapter 6 we consider different approaches to reject inference, the procedure of allocating class membership probabilities to the rejects. One reason for needing reject inference is to reduce the sample selection bias that results from using a sample consisting only of accepted applicants to build new scorecards. We show that the characteristic vectors for the rejects do not contain information about the parameters of the observed data likelihood, unless extra information or assumptions are included. Methods of reject inference which incorporate additional information are proposed. In Chapter 7 we make comparisons of a range of different parametric and nonparametric classification techniques for credit scoring: linear regression, logistic regression, projection pursuit regression, Poisson regression, decision trees and decision graphs. We conclude that classifier performance is fairly insensitive to the particular technique adopted. In Chapter 8 we describe the application of the k-NN method to credit scoring. We propose using an adjusted version of the Eucidean distance metric, which is designed to incorporate knowledge of class separation contained in the data. We evaluate properties of the k-NN classifier through empirical studies and make comparisons with existing techniques

Bias and Sensitivity Analysis When Estimating Treatment Effects from the Cox Model with Omitted Covariates

Omission of relevant covariates can lead to bias when estimating treatment or exposure effects from survival data in both randomized controlled trials and observational studies. This paper presents a general approach to assessing bias when covariates are omitted from the Cox model. The proposed method is applicable to both randomized and non‐randomized studies. We distinguish between the effects of three possible sources of bias: omission of a balanced covariate, data censoring and unmeasured confounding. Asymptotic formulae for determining the bias are derived from the large sample properties of the maximum likelihood estimator. A simulation study is used to demonstrate the validity of the bias formulae and to characterize the influence of the different sources of bias. It is shown that the bias converges to fixed limits as the effect of the omitted covariate increases, irrespective of the degree of confounding. The bias formulae are used as the basis for developing a new method of sensitivity analysis to assess the impact of omitted covariates on estimates of treatment or exposure effects. In simulation studies, the proposed method gave unbiased treatment estimates and confidence intervals with good coverage when the true sensitivity parameters were known. We describe application of the method to a randomized controlled trial and a non‐randomized study

Association between hypoxic volume and underlying hypoxia-induced gene expression in oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC):Hypoxia biomarkers from 64Cu-ATSM PET/CT imaging

Background: Hypoxia imaging is a promising tool for targeted therapy but the links between imaging features and underlying molecular characteristics of the tumour have not been investigated. The aim of this study was to compare hypoxia biomarkers and gene expression in oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) diagnostic biopsies with hypoxia imaged with 64Cu-ATSM PET/CT. Methods: 64Cu-ATSM imaging, molecular and clinical data were obtained for 15 patients. Primary tumour SUVmax, tumour to muscle ratio (TMR) and hypoxic volume were tested for association with reported hypoxia gene signatures in diagnostic biopsies. A putative gene signature for hypoxia in OPSCCs (hypoxic volume-associated gene signature (HVS)) was derived. Results: Hypoxic volume was significantly associated with a reported hypoxia gene signature (rho=0.57, P=0.045), but SUVmax and TMR were not. Immunohistochemical staining with the hypoxia marker carbonic anhydrase 9 (CA9) was associated with a gene expression hypoxia response (rho=0.63, P=0.01). Sixteen genes were positively and five genes negatively associated with hypoxic volume (adjusted P<0.1; eight genes had adjusted P<0.05; HVS). This signature was associated with inferior 3-year progression-free survival (HR=1.5 (1.0–2.2), P=0.047) in an independent patient cohort. Conclusions: 64Cu-ATSM-defined hypoxic volume was associated with underlying hypoxia gene expression response. A 21-gene signature derived from hypoxic volume from patients with OPSCCs in our study may be linked to progression-free survival

The development and validation of a scoring tool to predict the operative duration of elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Background: The ability to accurately predict operative duration has the potential to optimise theatre efficiency and utilisation, thus reducing costs and increasing staff and patient satisfaction. With laparoscopic cholecystectomy being one of the most commonly performed procedures worldwide, a tool to predict operative duration could be extremely beneficial to healthcare organisations. Methods: Data collected from the CholeS study on patients undergoing cholecystectomy in UK and Irish hospitals between 04/2014 and 05/2014 were used to study operative duration. A multivariable binary logistic regression model was produced in order to identify significant independent predictors of long (> 90 min) operations. The resulting model was converted to a risk score, which was subsequently validated on second cohort of patients using ROC curves. Results: After exclusions, data were available for 7227 patients in the derivation (CholeS) cohort. The median operative duration was 60 min (interquartile range 45–85), with 17.7% of operations lasting longer than 90 min. Ten factors were found to be significant independent predictors of operative durations > 90 min, including ASA, age, previous surgical admissions, BMI, gallbladder wall thickness and CBD diameter. A risk score was then produced from these factors, and applied to a cohort of 2405 patients from a tertiary centre for external validation. This returned an area under the ROC curve of 0.708 (SE = 0.013, p  90 min increasing more than eightfold from 5.1 to 41.8% in the extremes of the score. Conclusion: The scoring tool produced in this study was found to be significantly predictive of long operative durations on validation in an external cohort. As such, the tool may have the potential to enable organisations to better organise theatre lists and deliver greater efficiencies in care

On the Determinants of Social Capital in Greece Compared to Countries of the European Union

Social capital refers to the stock of social relations, based on norms and networks of cooperation and trust that spill over to the market and state to enhance collective action between actors and achieve improved social efficiency and economic growth. The aim of the present paper is to discuss the implications of contemporary literature and empirical findings on social capital for the growth prospects of Greece, compared to the member-states of the European Union. In order to examine the potential of social capital to enhance growth, we must look into the factors that determine the nature and context of trust, norms and networks that have emerged in our multinational, multiethnic and multicultural Europe.The contribution of this paper is to offer insight on the determinants of social capital in Greece, compared to the European Union (EU - former 15 member-states). For this purpose, we regress an index of individual group membership, derived from the European Community Household Panel (ECHP), on a set of individual as well as aggregate factors of social capital. Regression results provide evidence of the impact of both individual and institutional characteristics on group membership. Differences on the extent of group membership between countries might be indicative of the historical and cultural differences that have affected the evolution of social capital across Europe. Particularly in Greece, the relatively low level of group membership compared to the other EU countries might provide further evidence of its low levels of civicness. Historically, its weak civil society has been a result of a prior civic tradition of clientelism under arbitrary rule, the interference of special-interest groups and the lack of credibility and impartiality from the part of the state. And these factors might be responsible for the slow pace in reform and growth observed compared to the rest of the EU. Nevertheless, the findings on the determinants of social capital may direct us to possible means of rebuilding patterns of participatory and cooperative behavior, especially in countries with low levels of trust and civicness, such as Greece

Perseverative negative thinking predicts depression in people with acute coronary syndrome

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier via the DOI in this recordObjective: Depression is common in people who have experienced recent Acute Coronary Syndrome (ACS), and predicts worse medical outcomes. Mechanisms underpinning the development of depression and its association with poor medical outcomes are unclear however. The aim of this study was to investigate the role of perseverative negative thinking (e.g. worry and rumination) in predicting depression in people with recent ACS. Methods: Adults attending specialist inpatient and outpatient cardiology services who had recently experienced ACS were invited to participate in this observational prospective cohort study. Questionnaire assessments were completed within 6 months of index ACS (baseline), then 2 months and 6 months later. Results: 169 participants (131 male (78%), median age 68 (±16) years) completed baseline questionnaires, and 111 completed follow-ups. After controlling for the effects of key covariates, baseline rumination was a significant predictor of depression at 6 months, accounting for 2% of the variance in depression. This association was partially mediated by poor problem-solving ability and lack of social support. Neither worry nor rumination at baseline were significant predictors of quality of life at 6 months. Conclusions: Rumination is a significant independent predictor of depression, and this association may be partially explained by deficits in problem-solving ability and reduced social support. Both rumination and problem solving may provide useful targets for the development of evidence-based interventions to reduce depression among people with coronary heart disease.National Institute for Health Research (NIHR)Care South West PeninsulaUniversity of Exeter Medical Schoo