Chemical and Toxicological Analyses of Lake Calumet (Cook County, Illinois) Sediments

HWRIC Project 88-048NTIS PB90-16072

Biological and toxicological investigations of Chicago area navigation projects

unpublishednot peer reviewe

Epizoic Protozoa of Planktonic Copepoda and Cladocera from a Small Eutrophic Lake, and Their Possible Use as Indicators of Organic Water Pollution

The epizoic protozoa of planktonic copepoda and cladocera from a eutrophic lake (Ashmore Lake, Coles County, Illinois) were studied over a 13-week period in the summer and fall of 1975. All organisms were collected with a 125 micron mesh plankton net. Epizoans (all peritrichs and suctorians) were hosted by three of four species of copepods and four of the ten species of cladocerans. The percentage of total organisms hosting epizoans varied significantly (0.001 alpha level) by month, but averaged 11.6 percent. This high occurrence of epizoans was thought to be related to the highly-eutrophic conditions existing in the lake. If the occurrence of epizoans is related to the degree of organic enrichment of a body of water then the percentage of planktonic organisms hosting them could be a useful index of water quality. Several interesting symbiotic associations were found. Tokophrya cyclopum was always found on the anterior ends of its cyclopoid copepod hosts, and Vorticella microstoma occurred exclusively on the cladoceran Scapholeberis kingi. These associations were thought to result in feeding and defense advantages for the protozoa, but may have harmed the host organisms. Evidence from other studies was presented in support of these hypotheses

Evaluation of the Event Driven Phenology Model Coupled with the VegET Evapotranspiration Model Through Comparisons with Reference Datasets in a Spatially Explicit Manner

A new model coupling scheme with remote sensing data assimilation was developed for estimation of daily actual evapotranspiration (ET). The scheme represents a mix of the VegET, a physically based model to estimate ET from a water balance, and an event driven phenology model (EDPM), where the EDPM is an empirically derived crop specific model capable of producing seasonal trajectories of canopy attributes. In this experiment, the scheme was deployed in a spatially explicit manner within the croplands of the Northern Great Plains. The evaluation was carried out using 2007-2009 land surface forcing data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) and crop maps derived from remotely sensed data of NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). We compared the canopy parameters produced by the phenology model with normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data derived from the MODIS nadir bi-directional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) adjusted reflectance (NBAR) product. The expectations of the EDPM performance in prognostic mode were met, producing determination coefficient (r2) of 0.8 +/-.0.15. Model estimates of NDVI yielded root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.1 +/-.0.035 for the entire study area. Retrospective correction of canopy dynamics with MODIS NDVI brought the errors down to just below 10% of observed data range. The ET estimates produced by the coupled scheme were compared with ones from the MODIS land product suite. The expected r2=0.7 +/-.15 and RMSE = 11.2 +/-.4 mm per 8 days were met and even exceeded by the coupling scheme0 functioning in both prognostic and retrospective modes. Minor setbacks of the EDPM and VegET performance (r2 about 0.5 and additional 30 % of RMSR) were found on the peripheries of the study area and attributed to the insufficient EDPM training and to spatially varying accuracy of crop maps. Overall the experiment provided sufficient evidence of soundness and robustness of the EDPM and VegET coupling scheme, assuring its potential for spatially explicit applications

Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the twenty-first century

During the past several decades, the Earth system has changed significantly, especially across Northern Eurasia. Changes in the socio-economic conditions of the larger countries in the region have also resulted in a variety of regional environmental changes that can have global consequences. The Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI) has been designed as an essential continuation of the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), which was launched in 2004. NEESPI sought to elucidate all aspects of ongoing environmental change, to inform societies and, thus, to better prepare societies for future developments. A key principle of NEFI is that these developments must now be secured through science-based strategies co-designed with regional decision-makers to lead their societies to prosperity in the face of environmental and institutional challenges. NEESPI scientific research, data, and models have created a solid knowledge base to support the NEFI program. This paper presents the NEFI research vision consensus based on that knowledge. It provides the reader with samples of recent accomplishments in regional studies and formulates new NEFI science questions. To address these questions, nine research foci are identified and their selections are briefly justified. These foci include warming of the Arctic; changing frequency, pattern, and intensity of extreme and inclement environmental conditions; retreat of the cryosphere; changes in terrestrial water cycles; changes in the biosphere; pressures on land use; changes in infrastructure; societal actions in response to environmental change; and quantification of Northern Eurasia’s role in the global Earth system. Powerful feedbacks between the Earth and human systems in Northern Eurasia (e.g., mega-fires, droughts, depletion of the cryosphere essential for water supply, retreat of sea ice) result from past and current human activities (e.g., large-scale water withdrawals, land use, and governance change) and potentially restrict or provide new opportunities for future human activities. Therefore, we propose that integrated assessment models are needed as the final stage of global change assessment. The overarching goal of this NEFI modeling effort will enable evaluation of economic decisions in response to changing environmental conditions and justification of mitigation and adaptation efforts

Changing Snow Seasonality in the Highlands of Kyrgyzstan

Few studies have examined changing snow seasonality in Central Asia. Here, we analyzed changes in the seasonality of snow cover across Kyrgyzstan (KGZ) over 14 years from 2002/03–2015/16 using the most recent version (v006) of MODIS Terra and Aqua 8 day snow cover composites (MOD10A2/MYD10A2). We focused on three metrics of snow seasonality—first date of snow, last date of snow, and duration of snow season—and used nonparametric trends tests to assess the significance and direction of trends. We evaluated trends at three administration scales and across elevation. We used two techniques to assure that our identification of significant trends was not resulting from random spatial variation. First, we report only significant trends (positive or negative) that are at least twice as prevalent as the converse trends. Second, we use a two-stage analysis at the national scale to identify asymmetric directional changes in snow seasonality. Results show that more territory has been experiencing earlier onset of snow than earlier snowmelt, and roughly equivalent areas have been experiencing longer and shorter duration of snow seasons in the past 14 years. The changes are not uniform across KGZ, with significant shifts toward earlier snow arrival in western and central KGZ and significant shifts toward earlier snowmelt in eastern KGZ. The duration of the snow season has significantly shortened in western and eastern KGZ and significantly lengthened in northern and southwestern KGZ. Duration is significantly longer where the snow onset was significantly earlier or the snowmelt significantly later. There is a general trend of significantly earlier snowmelt below 3400 m and the area of earlier snowmelt is 15 times greater in eastern than western districts. Significant trends in the Aqua product were less prevalent than in the Terra product, but the general trend toward earlier snowmelt was also evident in Aqua data

Cosmic visions: bridging science and art

Since the dawn of recorded history, stargazing has shaped—and been shaped by—our understanding of the universe and the place of humans within it. Though we tend to conceptualize art and science as separate spheres, the observation of the heavens has always been interwoven with culture, and artists and astronomers continue to draw inspiration from one another even today. The authors of this paper, over the past few years, have developed and team-taught an interdisciplinary course titled Cosmic Visions: The Science of Astronomy and the Arts. Our course traces the shared, often symbiotic, history of these two ways of knowing, combining scientific instruction with examination of art in a range of genres and traditions, including visual art, music, and theater. Each week students engage in discussions, listen to lectures, and consider readings related to both the science of astronomy and the role of celestial objects in literature and the arts. A midterm and a final exam test students’ mastery of the science, while short essays on works of art and literature challenge them to think about how our changing understanding of heavenly bodies intersects with changing beliefs about humanity. The course culminates in an art project in which students express their own vision of the cosmos and our place within it. What happens when students employ humanistic modes of analysis in company with scientific ones? How does artistic expression change students’ apprehension of scientific concepts? This short essay offers preliminary answers to these deep pedagogical questions.Published versio

Changing Snow Seasonality in the Highlands of Kyrgyzstan

Few studies have examined changing snow seasonality in Central Asia. Here, we analyzed changes in the seasonality of snow cover across Kyrgyzstan (KGZ) over 14 years from 2002/03–2015/16 using the most recent version (v006) of MODIS Terra and Aqua 8 day snow cover composites (MOD10A2/MYD10A2).We focused on three metrics of snow seasonality—first date of snow, last date of snow, and duration of snow season—and used nonparametric trends tests to assess the significance and direction of trends. We evaluated trends at three administration scales and across elevation. We used two techniques to assure that our identification of significant trends was not resulting from random spatial variation. First, we report only significant trends (positive or negative) that are at least twice as prevalent as the converse trends. Second, we use a two-stage analysis at the national scale to identify asymmetric directional changes in snow seasonality. Results show that more territory has been experiencing earlier onset of snow than earlier snowmelt, and roughly equivalent areas have been experiencing longer and shorter duration of snow seasons in the past 14 years. The changes are not uniform across KGZ, with significant shifts toward earlier snow arrival in western and central KGZ and significant shifts toward earlier snowmelt in eastern KGZ. The duration of the snow season has significantly shortened in western and eastern KGZ and significantly lengthened in northern and southwestern KGZ. Duration is significantly longer where the snow onset was significantly earlier or the snowmelt significantly later. There is a general trend of significantly earlier snowmelt below 3400m and the area of earlier snowmelt is 15 times greater in eastern than western districts. Significant trends in the Aqua product were less prevalent than in the Terra product, but the general trend toward earlier snowmelt was also evident in Aqua data

Alternative Methods to Predict Actual Evapotranspiration Illustrate the Importance of Accounting for Phenology: The Event Driven Phenology Model Part II

Evapotranspiration (ET) flux constitutes a major component of both the water and energy balances at the land surface. Among the many factors that control evapotranspiration, phenology poses a major source of uncertainty in attempts to predict ET. Contemporary approaches to ET modeling and monitoring frequently summarize the complexity of the seasonal development of vegetation cover into static phenological trajectories (or climatologies) that lack sensitivity to changing environmental conditions. The Event Driven Phenology Model (EDPM) offers an alternative, interactive approach to representing phenology. This study presents the results of an experiment designed to illustrate the differences in ET arising from various techniques used to mimic phenology in models of land surface processes. The experiment compares and contrasts two realizations of static phenologies derived from long-term satellite observations of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) against canopy trajectories produced by the interactive EDPM trained on flux tower observations. The assessment was carried out through validation of predicted ET against records collected by flux tower instruments. The VegET model (Senay, 2008) was used as a framework to estimate daily actual evapotranspiration and supplied with seasonal canopy trajectories produced by the EDPM and traditional techniques. The interactive approach presented the following advantages over phenology modeled with static climatologies: (a) lower prediction bias in crops; (b) smaller root mean square error in daily ET – 0.5 mm per day on average; (c) stable level of errors throughout the season similar among different land cover types and locations; and (d) better estimation of season duration and total seasonal ET