Responding to the Lehman wave : sales forecasting and supply management during the credit crisis

In this paper we analyze the strong dip in the manufacturing industry seen at the end of 2008 and provide evidence from various sources that it was caused by cumulative de-stocking, triggered by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. This de-stocking created a giant dampened wave, the so-called Lehman wave. We model the Lehman Wave using system dynamics and validate the model using data from a number of business units and market segments of Royal DSM. We show that the model gives a very good prediction of sales development during the credit crisis. We provide insights into how these results can be used to improve sales forecasting and supply chain management during times of severe crises. We also show that the effects of the current financial crisis are far from over and suggest that our methods be used to predict sales during the year 2010

Non-Fermi-liquid behavior in Ce(Ru1−x_{1-x}Fex_x)2_2Ge2_2: cause and effect

We present inelastic neutron scattering measurements on the intermetallic compounds Ce(Ru$_{1-x}$Fe$_x$)$_2$Ge$_2$ ($x$=0.65, 0.76 and 0.87). These compounds represent samples in a magnetically ordered phase, at a quantum critical point and in the heavy-fermion phase, respectively. We show that at high temperatures the three compositions have the identical response of a local moment system. However, at low temperatures the spin fluctuations in the critical composition are given by non-Fermi-liquid dynamics, while the spin fluctuations in the heavy fermion system show a simple exponential decay in time. In both compositions, the lifetime of the fluctuations is determined solely by the distance to the quantum critical point. We discuss the implications of these observations regarding the possible origins of non-Fermi-liquid behavior in this system.Comment: 4 figures, submitted to PR

Kinrooi, Molenweg verkaveling Meytersveld

Dit rapport werd ingediend bij het agentschap samen met een aantal afzonderlijke digitale bijlagen. Een aantal van deze bijlagen zijn niet inbegrepen in dit pdf document en zijn niet online beschikbaar. Sommige bijlagen (grondplannen, fotos, spoorbeschrijvingen, enz.) kunnen van belang zijn voor een betere lezing en interpretatie van dit rapport. Indien u deze bijlagen wenst te raadplegen kan u daarvoor contact opnemen met: [email protected]

Estimating the incidence of equine viral arteritis and the sensitivity of its surveillance in the French breeding stock

Equine viral arteritis (EVA) may have serious economic impact on the equine industry. For this reason, it is monitored in many countries, especially in breeding stock, to avoid its spread during breeding activities. In France, surveillance is mainly based on serological tests, since mares are not vaccinated, but difficulties in interpreting certain series of results may impair the estimation of the number of outbreaks. In this study, we propose specific rules for identifying seroconversion in order to estimate the number of outbreaks that were detected by the breeding stock surveillance component (BSSC) in France between 2006 and 2013. A consensus among multidisciplinary experts was reached to consider seroconversion as a change in antibody titer from negative to at least 32, or as an eight-fold or greater increase in antibody level. Using these rules, 239 cases and 177 outbreaks were identified. Subsequently, we calculated the BSSC's sensitivity as the ratio of the number of detected outbreaks to the total number of outbreaks that occurred in breeding stock (including unreported outbreaks) estimated using a capture-recapture model. The total number of outbreaks was estimated at 215 (95% credible interval 195-249) and the surveillance sensitivity at 82% (CrI95% 71-91). Our results confirm EVA circulation in French breeding stock, show that neutralizing antibodies can persist up to eight years in naturally infected mares and suggest that certain mares have been reinfected. This study shows that the sensitivity of the BSSC is relatively high and supports its relevance to prevent the disease spreading through mating

The rationale for Janus kinase inhibitors for the treatment of spondyloarthritis

The pathogenesis of SpA is multifactorial and involves a range of immune cell types and cytokines, many of which utilize Janus kinase (JAK) pathways for signaling. In this review, we summarize the animal and pre-clinical data that have demonstrated the effects of JAK blockade on the underlying molecular mechanisms of SpA and provide a rationale for JAK inhibition for the treatment of SpA. We also review the available clinical trial data evaluating JAK inhibitors tofacitinib, baricitinib, peficitinib, filgotinib and upadacitinib in PsA, AS and related inflammatory diseases, which have demonstrated the efficacy of these agents across a range of SpA-associated disease manifestations. The available clinical trial data, supported by pre-clinical animal model studies demonstrate that JAK inhibition is a promising therapeutic strategy for the treatment of SpA and may offer the potential for improvements in multiple articular and extra-articular disease manifestations of PsA and AS

Stereotype reputation with limited observability

Assessing trust and reputation is essential in multi-agent systems where agents must decide who to interact with. Assessment typically relies on the direct experience of a trustor with a trustee agent, or on information from witnesses. Where direct or witness information is unavailable, such as when agent turnover is high, stereotypes learned from common traits and behaviour can provide this information. Such traits may be only partially or subjectively observed, with witnesses not observing traits of some trustees or interpreting their observations differently. Existing stereotype-based techniques are unable to account for such partial observability and subjectivity. In this paper we propose a method for extracting information from witness observations that enables stereotypes to be applied in partially and subjectively observable dynamic environments. Specifically, we present a mechanism for learning translations between observations made by trustor and witness agents with subjective interpretations of traits. We show through simulations that such translation is necessary for reliable reputation assessments in dynamic environments with partial and subjective observability

The effect of distractions in the operating room during endourological procedures

Contains fulltext : 98421.pdf (publisher's version ) (Closed access)BACKGROUND: Professionals working in the operating room (OR) are subject to various distractions that can be detrimental to their task performance and the quality of their work. This study aimed to quantify the frequency, nature, and effect on performance of (potentially) distracting events occurring during endourological procedures and additionally explored urologists' and residents' perspectives on experienced ill effects due to distracting factors. METHODS: First, observational data were collected prospectively during endourological procedures in one OR of a teaching hospital. A seven-point ordinal scale was used to measure the level of observed interference with the main task of the surgical team. Second, semistructured interviews were conducted with eight urologists and seven urology residents in two hospitals to obtain their perspectives on the impact of distracting factors. RESULTS: Seventy-eight procedures were observed. A median of 20 distracting events occurred per procedure, which corresponds to an overall rate of one distracting event every 1.8 min. Equipment problems and procedure-related and medically irrelevant communication were the most frequently observed causes of interruptions and identified as the most distracting factors in the interviews. Occurrence of distracting factors in difficult situations requiring high levels of concentration was perceived by all interviewees as disturbing and negatively impacting performance. The majority of interviewees (13/15) thought distracting factors impacted more strongly on residents' compared to urologists' performance due to their different levels of experience. CONCLUSION: Distracting events occur frequently in the OR. Equipment problems and communication, the latter both procedure-related and medically irrelevant, have the largest impact on the sterile team and regularly interrupt procedures. Distracting stimuli can influence performance negatively and should therefore be minimized. Further research is required to determine the direct effect of distraction on patient safety

Internalization of Modified Lipids by CD36 and SR-A Leads to Hepatic Inflammation and Lysosomal Cholesterol Storage in Kupffer Cells

Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is characterized by steatosis and inflammation, which can further progress into fibrosis and cirrhosis. Recently, we demonstrated that combined deletion of the two main scavenger receptors, CD36 and macrophage scavenger receptor 1 (MSR1), which are important for modified cholesterol-rich lipoprotein uptake, reduced NASH. The individual contributions of these receptors to NASH and the intracellular mechanisms by which they contribute to inflammation have not been established. We hypothesize that CD36 and MSR1 contribute independently to the onset of inflammation in NASH, by affecting intracellular cholesterol distribution inside Kupffer cells (KCs).Ldlr(-/-) mice were transplanted with wild-type (Wt), Cd36(-/-) or Msr1(-/-) bone marrow and fed a Western diet for 3 months. Cd36(-/-)- and Msr1(-/-)- transplanted (tp) mice showed a similar reduction in hepatic inflammation compared to Wt-tp mice. While the total amount of cholesterol inside KCs was similar in all groups, KCs of Cd36(-/-)- and Msr1(-/-)-tp mice showed increased cytoplasmic cholesterol accumulation, while Wt-tp mice showed increased lysosomal cholesterol accumulation.CD36 and MSR1 contribute similarly and independently to the progression of inflammation in NASH. One possible explanation for the inflammatory response related to expression of these receptors could be abnormal cholesterol trafficking in KCs. These data provide a new basis for prevention and treatment of NASH