COLLABORATING TO RUIN? US NATIONAL LABORATORIES AND THE IMPACT OF INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH PARTNERSHIPS

Following the Cold War, Russian and US research institutions forged new collaborative ties to take advantage of perceived complementarities in conducting scientific research as part of US nonproliferation initiatives. These ties appear to have been successful in the broader nonproliferation context as relatively few Russian nuclear scientists emigrated to perceived rogue states like Iran and North Korea in the years that immediately followed the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Early on, the research benefits of these ties appeared to be significant. Today, as the Russian science and technology cadre is going through a demographic transition and the Russian state is following a corporatist policy in rebuilding its scientific research and development base, the appropriable benefits associated with continuing these policies for US research partners are less obvious. This assessment is an attempt to gain an empirical understanding of the appropriable benefits from US-Russian research engagement apart from the nonproliferation context. As such, this study examines these collaborations using an alternative network analysis methodology with reference to a knowledge-based model of research and development generation. To assure tractability, the analysis focuses its attention on a subset of institutions that have been broadly ignored in studies of research collaboration — US national laboratories and their Russian counterparts. The resulting analysis challenges the conventional wisdom of the appropriable virtues of scientific collaboration. For the limited set of relationships examined in this study, this analysis suggests participation in international collaborations between the largest US national laboratories and their Russian counterparts can actually reduce individual researchers basic research productivity — clearly not a policy goal for a major national research and development establishment. To achieve better appropriability, this finding and its contextual factors are used to demarcate areas of inquiry where Russian-US engagement has an empirical track record of utility and should continue from areas where collaboration has had little success

An Insulating Glass Knowledge Base

This report will discuss issues relevant to Insulating Glass (IG) durability performance by presenting the observations and developed conclusions in a logical sequential format. This concluding effort discusses Phase II activities and focuses on beginning to quantifying IG durability issues while continuing the approach presented in the Phase I activities (Appendix 1) which discuss a qualitative assessment of durability issues. Phase II developed a focus around two specific IG design classes previously presented in Phase I of this project. The typical box spacer and thermoplastic spacer design including their Failure Modes and Effect Analysis (FMEA) and Fault Tree diagrams were chosen to address two currently used IG design options with varying components and failure modes. The system failures occur due to failures of components or their interfaces. Efforts to begin quantifying the durability issues focused on the development and delivery of an included computer based IG durability simulation program. The focus/effort to deliver the foundation for a comprehensive IG durability simulation tool is necessary to address advancements needed to meet current and future building envelope energy performance goals. This need is based upon the current lack of IG field failure data and the lengthy field observation time necessary for this data collection. Ultimately, the simulation program is intended to be used by designers throughout the current and future industry supply chain. Its use is intended to advance IG durability as expectations grow around energy conservation and with the growth of embedded technologies as required to meet energy needs. In addition the tool has the immediate benefit of providing insight for research and improvement prioritization. Included in the simulation model presentation are elements and/or methods to address IG materials, design, process, quality, induced stress (environmental and other factors), validation, etc. In addition, acquired data is presented in support of project and model assumptions. Finally, current and suggested testing protocol and procedure for future model validation and IG physical testing are discussed

Modeling conflict : research methods, quantitative modeling, and lessons learned.

This study investigates the factors that lead countries into conflict. Specifically, political, social and economic factors may offer insight as to how prone a country (or set of countries) may be for inter-country or intra-country conflict. Largely methodological in scope, this study examines the literature for quantitative models that address or attempt to model conflict both in the past, and for future insight. The analysis concentrates specifically on the system dynamics paradigm, not the political science mainstream approaches of econometrics and game theory. The application of this paradigm builds upon the most sophisticated attempt at modeling conflict as a result of system level interactions. This study presents the modeling efforts built on limited data and working literature paradigms, and recommendations for future attempts at modeling conflict

Development of a statistically based access delay timeline methodology.

The charter for adversarial delay is to hinder access to critical resources through the use of physical systems increasing an adversary's task time. The traditional method for characterizing access delay has been a simple model focused on accumulating times required to complete each task with little regard to uncertainty, complexity, or decreased efficiency associated with multiple sequential tasks or stress. The delay associated with any given barrier or path is further discounted to worst-case, and often unrealistic, times based on a high-level adversary, resulting in a highly conservative calculation of total delay. This leads to delay systems that require significant funding and personnel resources in order to defend against the assumed threat, which for many sites and applications becomes cost prohibitive. A new methodology has been developed that considers the uncertainties inherent in the problem to develop a realistic timeline distribution for a given adversary path. This new methodology incorporates advanced Bayesian statistical theory and methodologies, taking into account small sample size, expert judgment, human factors and threat uncertainty. The result is an algorithm that can calculate a probability distribution function of delay times directly related to system risk. Through further analysis, the access delay analyst or end user can use the results in making informed decisions while weighing benefits against risks, ultimately resulting in greater system effectiveness with lower cost

Development of a statistically based access delay timeline methodology.

The charter for adversarial delay is to hinder access to critical resources through the use of physical systems increasing an adversary's task time. The traditional method for characterizing access delay has been a simple model focused on accumulating times required to complete each task with little regard to uncertainty, complexity, or decreased efficiency associated with multiple sequential tasks or stress. The delay associated with any given barrier or path is further discounted to worst-case, and often unrealistic, times based on a high-level adversary, resulting in a highly conservative calculation of total delay. This leads to delay systems that require significant funding and personnel resources in order to defend against the assumed threat, which for many sites and applications becomes cost prohibitive. A new methodology has been developed that considers the uncertainties inherent in the problem to develop a realistic timeline distribution for a given adversary path. This new methodology incorporates advanced Bayesian statistical theory and methodologies, taking into account small sample size, expert judgment, human factors and threat uncertainty. The result is an algorithm that can calculate a probability distribution function of delay times directly related to system risk. Through further analysis, the access delay analyst or end user can use the results in making informed decisions while weighing benefits against risks, ultimately resulting in greater system effectiveness with lower cost

Spatiotemporal Patterns and Changes in Missouri River Fishes

The longest river in North America, the Missouri, trends southeast from Montana across the mid continent of the United States, 3,768 km to its confluence with the Mississippi River near St. Louis, Missouri. Frequent flooding, a shifting, braided channel, and high turbidity characterized the precontrol “Big Muddy.” Major alterations occurred over the past century primarily for flood protection, navigation, irrigation, and power production. Today, the middle one-third of its length is impounded into the largest volume reservoir complex in the United States and the lower one-third is channelized, leveed, and its banks stabilized. Spatial and temporal patterns of Missouri River fishes are reviewed for the main channel, floodplain, and major reservoirs. Twenty-five families, containing 136 species, compose its ichthyofauna. Seven families represent 76% of total species richness, with Cyprinidae (47 species), Catostomidae (13), Centrarchidae (12), and Salmonidae (10), the five most specious. Native fishes compose 79% of the river’s ichthyofauna with representatives of four archaic families extant: Acipenseridae, Polyodontidae, Lepisosteidae, and Hiodontidae. Fifty-four percent of Missouri River fishes are classified as “big river” species, residing primarily in the main channel, and 93% of these are fluvial dependent or fluvial specialists. Significant floodplain use occurs for 60 species. Many of its big river fishes are well adapted for life in turbid, swift waters with unstable sand-silt bottoms. Populations of 17 species are increasing and 53% of these are introduced, primarily salmonids, forage fishes, and Asian carps. Ninety-six percent of the 24 species whose populations are decreasing are native. Fishes listed as globally critically imperiled and federally endangered (G1) or globally vulnerable (G3) include pallid sturgeon Scaphirhynchus albus (G1), lake sturgeon Acipenser fulvescens, Alabama shad Alosa alabamae, sturgeon chub Macrhybopsis gelida, and sicklefin chub M. meeki (G3). Eleven fishes are listed by two of more of the seven main-stem states as imperiled; all are big river species. Richness increases going downriver from 64 species in Montana to 110 species in Missouri with 36% of widely distributed taxa absent below one or more reservoir. Longterm fish collections from several states show declines in sauger Sander canadensis throughout the river and decreases in the lower river of several big river fishes (e.g., sturgeons, chubs, Hybognathus spp.). Spatiotemporal changes in Missouri River fishes reflect interactions between natural (climate, physiography, hydrology, and zoogeography) and anthropogenic (impoundment, geomorphic, flow, and temperature alterations, and introduced species) factors. Recurrent droughts and floods and persistent stakeholder conflicts over beneficial uses have recently directed national attention to Missouri River issues. Acquisition of floodplain lands and channel and floodplain rehabilitation programs are underway to improve habitat in the lower river. Unfortunately, many are site specific and few have included explicit ecological objectives and performance evaluations. Several proposals for flow normalization are being considered, but remain controversial