How the Selection of Training Data and Modeling Approach Affects the Estimation of Ammonia Emissions from a Naturally Ventilated Dairy Barn-Classical Statistics versus Machine Learning

Environmental protection efforts can only be effective in the long term with a reliable quantification of pollutant gas emissions as a first step to mitigation. Measurement and analysis strategies must permit the accurate extrapolation of emission values. We systematically analyzed the added value of applying modern machine learning methods in the process of monitoring emissions from naturally ventilated livestock buildings to the atmosphere. We considered almost 40 weeks of hourly emission values from a naturally ventilated dairy cattle barn in Northern Germany. We compared model predictions using 27 different scenarios of temporal sampling, multiple measures of model accuracy, and eight different regression approaches. The error of the predicted emission values with the tested measurement protocols was, on average, well below 20%. The sensitivity of the prediction to the selected training dataset was worse for the ordinary multilinear regression. Gradient boosting and random forests provided the most accurate and robust emission value predictions, accompanied by the second-smallest model errors. Most of the highly ranked scenarios involved six measurement periods, while the scenario with the best overall performance was: One measurement period in summer and three in the transition periods, each lasting for 14 days

Particulate Matter Dispersion Modeling in Agricultural Applications: Investigation of a Transient Open Source Solver

Agriculture is a major emitter of particulate matter (PM), which causes health problems and can act as a carrier of the pathogen material that spreads diseases. The aim of this study was to investigate an open-source solver that simulates the transport and dispersion of PM for typical agricultural applications. We investigated a coupled Eulerian–Lagrangian solver within the open source software package OpenFOAM. The continuous phase was solved using transient large eddy simulations, where four different subgrid-scale turbulence models and an inflow turbulence generator were tested. The discrete phase was simulated using two different Lagrangian solvers. For the validation case of a turbulent flow of a street canyon, the flowfield could be recaptured very well, with errors of around 5% for the non-equilibrium turbulence models (WALE and dynamicKeq) in the main regions. The inflow turbulence generator could create a stable and accurate boundary layer for the mean vertical velocity and vertical profile of the turbulent Reynolds stresses R11. The validation of the Lagrangian solver showed mixed results, with partly good agreements (simulation results within the measurement uncertainty), and partly high deviations of up to 80% for the concentration of particles. The higher deviations were attributed to an insufficient turbulence regime of the used validation case, which was an experimental chamber. For the simulation case of PM dispersion from manure application on a field, the solver could capture the influence of features such as size and density on the dispersion. The investigated solver is especially useful for further investigations into time-dependent processes in the near-source area of PM sources

Supervised Machine Learning to Assess Methane Emissions of a Dairy Building with Natural Ventilation

A reliable quantification of greenhouse gas emissions is a basis for the development of adequate mitigation measures. Protocols for emission measurements and data analysis approaches to extrapolate to accurate annual emission values are a substantial prerequisite in this context. We systematically analyzed the benefit of supervised machine learning methods to project methane emissions from a naturally ventilated cattle building with a concrete solid floor and manure scraper located in Northern Germany. We took into account approximately 40 weeks of hourly emission measurements and compared model predictions using eight regression approaches, 27 different sampling scenarios and four measures of model accuracy. Data normalization was applied based on median and quartile range. A correlation analysis was performed to evaluate the influence of individual features. This indicated only a very weak linear relation between the methane emission and features that are typically used to predict methane emission values of naturally ventilated barns. It further highlighted the added value of including day-time and squared ambient temperature as features. The error of the predicted emission values was in general below 10%. The results from Gaussian processes, ordinary multilinear regression and neural networks were least robust. More robust results were obtained with multilinear regression with regularization, support vector machines and particularly the ensemble methods gradient boosting and random forest. The latter had the added value to be rather insensitive against the normalization procedure. In the case of multilinear regression, also the removal of not significantly linearly related variables (i.e., keeping only the day-time component) led to robust modeling results. We concluded that measurement protocols with 7 days and six measurement periods can be considered sufficient to model methane emissions from the dairy barn with solid floor with manure scraper, particularly when periods are distributed over the year with a preference for transition periods. Features should be normalized according to median and quartile range and must be carefully selected depending on the modeling approach

CFD modelling of an animal occupied zone using an anisotropic porous medium model with velocity depended resistance parameters

The airflow in dairy barns is affected by many factors, such as the barn's geometry, weather conditions, configurations of the openings, cows acting as heat sources, flow obstacles, etc. Computational fluids dynamics (CFD) has the advantages of providing detailed airflow information and allowing fully-controlled boundary conditions, and therefore is widely used in livestock building research. However, due to the limited computing power, numerous animals are difficult to be designed in detail. Consequently, there is the need to develop and use smart numerical models in order to reduce the computing power needed while at the same time keeping a comparable level of accuracy. In this work the porous medium modeling is considered to solve this problem using Ansys Fluent. A comparison between an animal occupied zone (AOZ) filled with randomly arranged 22 simplified cows' geometry model (CM) and the porous medium model (PMM) of it, was made. Anisotropic behavior of the PMM was implemented in the porous modeling to account for turbulence influences. The velocity at the inlet of the domain has been varied from 0.1 m s(-1) to 3 in s(-1) and the temperature difference between the animals and the incoming air was set at 20 K. Leading to Richardson numbers Ri corresponding to the three types of heat transfer convection, i.e. natural, mixed and forced convection. It has been found that the difference between two models (the cow geometry model and the PMM) was around 2% for the pressure drop and less than 6% for the convective heat transfer. Further the usefulness of parametrized PMM with a velocity adaptive pressure drop and heat transfer coefficient is shown by velocity field validation of an on-farm measurement

Opening Size E ects on Airflow Pattern and Airflow Rate of a Naturally Ventilated Dairy Building : A CFD Study

Airflow inside naturally ventilated dairy (NVD) buildings is highly variable and difficult to understand due to the lack of precious measuring techniques with the existing methods. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) was applied to investigate the effect of different seasonal opening combinations of an NVD building on airflow patterns and airflow rate inside the NVD building as an alternative to full scale and scale model experiments. ANSYS 2019R2 was used for creating model geometry, meshing, and simulation. Eight ventilation opening combinations and 10 different reference air velocities were used for the series of simulation. The data measured in a large boundary layer wind tunnel using a 1:100 scale model of the NVD building was used for CFD model validation. The results show that CFD using standard k-ε turbulence model was capable of simulating airflow in and outside of the NVD building. Airflow patterns were different for different opening scenarios at the same external wind speed, which may affect cow comfort and gaseous emissions. Guiding inlet air by controlling openings may ensure animal comfort and minimize emissions. Non-isothermal and transient simulations of NVD buildings should be carried out for better understanding of airflow patterns

Non-linear temperature dependency of ammonia and methane emissions from a naturally ventilated dairy barn

Ammonia (NH3) and methane (CH4) emissions from naturally ventilated dairy barns affect the environment and the wellbeing of humans and animals. Our study improves the understanding of the dependency of emission rates on climatic conditions with a particular focus on temperature. Previous investigations of the relation between gas emission and temperature mainly rely on linear regression or correlation analysis. We take up a preceding study presenting a multilinear regressionmodel based onNH3 and CH4 concentration and temperaturemeasurements between 2010 and 2012 in a dairy barn for 360 cows inNorthern Germany.We study scatter plots and non-linear regressionmodels for a subset of these data and show that the linear approximation comes to its limits when large temperature ranges are considered. The functional dependency of the emission rates on temperature differs among the gases. For NH3, the exponential dependency assumed in previous studies was proven. For methane, a parabolic relation was found. The emissions show large daily and annual variations and environmental impact factors like wind and humidity superimpose the temperature dependency but the functional shape in general persists. Complementary to the former insight that high temperature increases emissions, we found that in the case of CH4, also temperatures below 10 C lead to an increase in emissions from ruminal fermentation which is likely to be due to a change in animal activity. The improved prediction of emissions by the novel non-linear model may support more accurate economic and ecological assessments of smart barn concepts

Comparison of Methane Emission Patterns from Dairy Housings with Solid and Slatted Floors at Two Locations

Methane (CH4) emissions from dairy husbandry are a hot topic in the context of active climate protection, where housing systems with slatted floors and slurry storage inside are in general expected to emit more than systems with solid floors. There are multiple factors, including climate conditions, that modulate the emission pattern. In this study, we investigated interrelations between CH4 emission patterns and climate conditions as well as differences between farm locations versus floor effects. We considered three data sets with 265, 264 and 275 hourly emission values from two housing systems (one slatted, one solid floor) in Switzerland and one system with solid floors in Germany. Each data set incorporated measurements in summer, winter and a transition season. The average CH4 emission was highest for the slatted floor system. For the solid floor systems, CH4 emissions at the Swiss location were around 30% higher compared to the German location. The shape of the distributions for the two solid floor systems was rather similar but very different from the distribution for the slatted floor system, which showed higher prevalence for extreme emissions. Rank correlations, which measure the degree of similarity between two rankings in terms of linear relation, were not able to detect dependencies at the selected significance level. In contrast, mutual information, which measures more general statistical dependencies in terms of shared information, revealed highly significant dependencies for almost all variable pairs. The weakest statistical relation was found between winds speed and CH4 emission, but the convection regime was found to play a key role. Clustering was consistent among the three data sets with five typical clusters related to high/low temperature and wind speed, respectively, as well as in some cases to morning and evening hours. Our analysis showed that despite the disparate and often insignificant correlation between environmental variables and CH4 emission, there is a strong relation between both, which shapes the emission pattern in many aspects much more in addition to differences in the floor type. Although a clear distinction of high and low emission condition clusters based on the selected environmental variables was not possible, trends were clearly visible. Further research with larger data sets is advisable to verify the detected trends and enable prognoses for husbandry systems under different climate conditions

Direct Measurements of the Volume Flow Rate and Emissions in a Large Naturally Ventilated Building

The direct measurement of emissions from naturally ventilated dairy barns is challenging due to their large openings and the turbulent and unsteady airflow at the inlets and outlets. The aim of this study was to quantify the impacts of the number and positions of sensors on the estimation of volume flow rate and emissions. High resolution measurements of a naturally ventilated scaled building model in an atmospheric boundary layer wind tunnel were done. Tracer gas was released inside the model and measured at the outlet area, using a fast flame ionization detector (FFID). Additionally, the normal velocity on the area was measured using laser Doppler anemometry (LDA). In total, for a matrix of 65 × 4 sensor positions, the mean normal velocities and the mean concentrations were measured and used to calculate the volume flow rate and the emissions. This dataset was used as a reference to assess the accuracy while systematically reducing the number of sensors and varying the positions of them. The results showed systematic errors in the emission estimation up to +97%, when measurements of concentration and velocity were done at one constant height. This error could be lowered under 5%, when the concentrations were measured as a vertical composite sample

Ammonia emission prediction for dairy cattle housing from reaction kinetic modeling to the barn scale

One way to estimate ammonia emission rates from naturally ventilated housing systems is to scale-up mechanistic modeling results. However, obtaining the relevant data to set initial and boundary conditions adequately is usually very challenging and for a whole barn barely possible. This study has investigated the potential of coupling different mechanistic modeling approaches towards an overarching barn scale ammonia emission model, which might permit ammonia emission projections for naturally ventilated housing systems with minimal measurement efforts. To this end, we combined an ammonia volatilization model for shallow urine or slurry puddles with a dynamic mechanistic model of digestion and excretion of nitrogen, an empirical model to estimate urination volumes, semi-empirical models for pH and temperature dynamics of the puddles and a mechanistic air flow model. The ammonia volatilization model was integrated with a time step of one second over a period of twenty-four hours, while the relevant boundary conditions were updated on an hourly base (determined by the other mentioned submodels). Projections and uncertainties of the approach were investigated for a farm case with about ten months of on-farm measurements in a naturally ventilated dairy cattle building with scraped solid floor in Northern Germany. The results showed that the nested model was in general capable to reproduce the long-term emission trend and variability, while the short-term variability was damped compared with the emission measurements. A sensitivity study indicated that particularly a refinement of the submodules for urine puddle alkalizing, urination volume and urea concentration distributions as well as for local near-surface wind speeds have a great potential to further improve the overall model accuracy. The cleaning efficiency of the scraper has turned out to be a crucial and sensitive parameter in the modeling, which so far has been described insufficiently by measurements or modeling approaches