Key policy questions for ex-ante impact assessment of European agricultural and rural policies

Policies in the agricultural and rural sectors are of key importance in shaping their sustainable development. These policies are changing from market-based policies to policies that aim to influence farmers' decision-making. Thus, the scientific literature supporting evidence-based policy-making must develop models that simulate individual decision-making (IDM) by farmers. This study aims to understand key policy objectives, related policy questions and benchmark scenarios relevant to the European agricultural sector to define the research agenda for a suite of IDM models. This research goal has been addressed following a five-step process that involved different research tools and heterogeneous actors, including key stakeholders. Results suggest that environmental policy objectives are the most relevant for European agriculture in the coming decades. Thus, the scenario modelling exercise should focus mainly on the agri-environmental policies' impacts while properly considering the potential trade-offs between economic and environmental objectives

European dairy policy in the years to come : impact of quota abolition on the dairy sector

This paper examines EU dairy sector and market developments, and the likely impact of the milk quota removal. The latter is illustrated by model simulations focused on the Dutch dairy farm sector. Declining milk prices raise the question whether quota are still relevant to the sector. Ongoing trade liberalisation will further push down EU milk prices, with significant income effects. The Dutch case study shows that early quota abolition will be beneficial for larger farms eager to expand and enhances structural change. Implications for the European dairy processing sector are discussed too. The paper concludes by presenting sets of policy instruments that may facilitate the sector gradual adjustment to a situation without milk quota

Europees zuivelbeleid in de komende jaren; wegen naar afschaffing van de melkquotering

Dit rapport analyseert de gevolgen van de afschaffing van het melkquoteringsysteem in de EU. Volgens de huidige zuivelmarktordening is 2014/2015 de voorlopige einddatum van de melkquotering. Melkveebedrijven die willen groeien, hebben voordeel bij een directe en vervroegde afschaffing van de melkquotering, maar vooral kleinere bedrijven zullen gedwongen zijn te stoppen. Een directe, vervroegde afschaffing van het melkquotering leidt tot negatieve schokeffecten voor de sector. Daarom wordt aanbevolen om de afschaffing tijdig aan te kondigen en om maatregelen te treffen om schokeffecten te voorkomen. Hiertoe worden diverse instrumenten gesuggegeerd, zoals (een combinate van)geleidelijke(r) prijsaanpassing, quotumuitbreiding, internationale quotahandel, en flankerend plattelandsbeleid

Herziening van de suikermarktordening?; Mogelijke gevolgen voor Nederland en de EU

Dit rapport verkent de gevolgen van een aantal mogelijke wijzigingen in het EU-suikerbeleid. Onderzocht zijn drie opties. De eerste optie behelst een volledige en wereld-wijde afschaffing van alle exportondersteunende en grensbeschermende maatregelen. De tweede optie richt zich op de gevolgen van een forse reductie met 20% van de EU-suikerquota. De derde en laatste optie verkent de gevolgen van een forse verlaging met 36% van de institutionele suikerprijzen. De opties worden doorgerekend voor de EU-15 en voor Nederland met behulp van twee economische modellen: GTAP en DRAM. Uit de si-mulaties van de beleidsalternatieven blijkt dat de consequenties van de drie opties voor zowel de Europese als de Nederlandse suikersector aanzienlijk zijn

Agricultural land use changes – a scenario-based sustainability impact assessment for Brandenburg, Germany

AbstractDecisions for agricultural management are taken at farm scale. However, such decisions may well impact upon regional sustainability. Two of the likely agricultural management responses to future challenges are extended use of irrigation and increased production of energy crops. The drivers for these are high commodity prices and subsidy policies for renewable energy. However, the impacts of these responses upon regional sustainability are unknown. Thus, we conducted integrated impact assessments for agricultural intensification scenarios in the federal state of Brandenburg, Germany, for 2025. One Irrigation scenario and one Energy scenario were contrasted with the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario. We applied nine indicators to analyze the economic, social and environmental effects at the regional, in this case district scale, which is the smallest administrative unit in Brandenburg. Assessment results were discussed in a stakeholder workshop involving 16 experts from the state government.The simulated area shares of silage maize for fodder and energy were 29%, 37% and 49% for the BAU, Irrigation, and Energy scenarios, respectively. The Energy scenario increased bio-electricity production to 41% of the demand of Brandenburg, and it resulted in CO2 savings of up to 3.5milliontons. However, it resulted in loss of biodiversity, loss of landscape scenery, increased soil erosion risk, and increased area demand for water protection requirements. The Irrigation scenario led to yield increases of 7% (rapeseed), 18% (wheat, sugar beet), and 40% (maize) compared to the BAU scenario. It also reduced the year-to-year yield variability. Water demand for irrigation was found to be in conflict with other water uses for two of the 14 districts. Spatial differentiation of scenario impacts showed that districts with medium to low yield potentials were more affected by negative impacts than districts with high yield potentials.In this first comprehensive sustainability impact assessment of agricultural intensification scenarios at regional level, we showed that a considerable potential for agricultural intensification exists. The intensification is accompanied by adverse environmental and socio-economic impacts. The novelty lies in the multiscale integration of comprehensive, agricultural management simulations with regional level impact assessment, which was achieved with the adequate use of indicators. It provided relevant evidence for policy decision making. Stakeholders appreciated the integrative approach of the assessment, which substantiated ongoing discussions among the government bodies. The assessment approach and the Brandenburg case study may stay exemplary for other regions in the world where similar economic and policy driving forces are likely to lead to agricultural intensification

Irrigation and irrigated agriculture potential in the Sahel: The case of the Niger river basin.

The report assesses the potential of developing irrigation in the Niger River Basin under various agricultural scenarios accounting for biophysical and socio-economic variables, and for expected climate change. Irrigation potential is assessed in two parts. The first reviews recent literature in English and French (2010 onwards) on sustainable irrigation potential in the Sahel (i.e. Lake Chad basin, Niger, Senegal Volta River basins). Sahel agriculture possesses a significant irrigation potential. However, estimates fluctuate greatly depending on the scale of irrigation schemes, whether the resource is surface or ground water, expected and actual irrigation costs but also on determinants of success of irrigation schemes, including the varying effects when interacting with other inputs, such as fertilisers. Past, and not always successful, efforts were based on large public irrigation schemes (i.e. river dams and related canals). In a growing number of contexts, investments in small and micro-irrigation systems are identified as more desirable than conventional large schemes. Existing small-scale irrigation systems in the region are known to be developing however limited systematised evidence exists. The realisation of this potential is very sensitive to the costs of irrigation, among the highest in the world, with some technologies more sensitive than others (i.e. small river diversions). Moreover, irrigation potential is influenced by synergies among irrigation and other agricultural production technologies – it is maybe worthwhile to recall that irrigation potential is not a static concept, but it is contingent on levels of other inputs. Hence, irrigation investments need to be put in the broader context of productivity enhancement, rural development efforts and global changes such as urbanisation The development of irrigation in the Sahel and in the Niger River basin in particular is a key intervention area for agriculture and development policy in general. Current policy identifies irrigation development as an instrument fostering food security. However, from the angle of optimization, rainfed agriculture retains the larger potential for development when looking at costs and overall potential profits. Moreover, support to the development of irrigated agriculture needs to be fully integrated with a relevant and adapted support to agriculture in general, particularly with regards to how it mitigates risk. Access to irrigation is expected to expand farmers' production opportunities. It mitigates production risks, even in low quantities as crop-saving irrigation. By reducing risk, it encourages farmers to make more intensive use of inputs and land. Moreover, this dynamic effect is also influenced by the type of irrigation systems accessed. For example, the literature has identified that farmers which have some off-farm income are particularly interested in investing in agriculture if irrigation is made available, whereas other groups may be interested in improving first their access to credit for farm inputs with then a view on irrigation. How production risks are perceived need to be clearly identified so that the irrigation systems fostered can be seen as risk-reducing Functioning supply chains would also make irrigation more profitable as they reduce losses of potentially more valuable products from irrigated agriculture and enhance market access. Recently, registered regional increases in groundwater storage have been associated to diffuse recharge, partially compensating for groundwater withdrawal associated with irrigation development. Hence, hinting at some level of sustainability in the use of groundwater for small-scale irrigation in the Sahel, despite the risks associated with salinization. The second part focuses on the Niger Basin to assess and quantify its irrigation potential through modelling. The model uses static biophysical and socio-economic indicators in model optimising profits of mainly small holder farms under 4 possible agricultural scenarios with distinctive productivity levels. In general, the projected irrigated area does not evolve much between scenarios mainly because of high productions costs associated with increased irrigation. Although irrigation potential is theoretically large, investing in both irrigated and rainfed input intensification offers the largest potential gains. The results for total irrigation potential in terms of farmed area are in the range of 0.6-09M hectares, from the estimated current 0.53M hectares of irrigated land under the most productive scenario in terms of agricultural yields. However, even the most yielding scenario results of the current study are significantly lower than previous estimates developed in the literature, and depend on assumed irrigation and input costs. The specific strengths of this new estimation are that of using input costs from recent agricultural surveys (i.e. LSMS-ISA) along with crop suitability maps. Its main limitation is that is does not distinguish between irrigation technologies and related costs, constraining estimates to a generic (gravity) irrigation. In turn, the expansion of agriculture is exogenously determined and does not depend upon the variables analysed.JRC.D.4-Economics of Agricultur

Toekomstverkenning landbouw en milieu

Dit project was meer dan louter een toekomstverkenning voor de Vlaamse land- en tuinbouw aan de hand van de modelleertool SELES. Het was in eerste instantie een diepgaande kennismaking met het model, zijn mogelijkheden en beperkingen en het verkrijgen van inzicht in de samenhang tussen inputs en output. Het LEI was tevens betrokken bij de klankbordgroep voor deze modelerin