The geography of megatrends affecting European agriculture

A range of intensifying pressures is making the future of European agriculture dynamic and contested. Insights into these pressures are needed to inform debates about the future of the sector. In this study, we use a foresight approach to identify, quantify and map megatrends. Megatrends are long-term driving forces which are observable today and will likely have transformational potential in the future. By mapping these megatrends at the regional scale, we establish a geography of megatrends and detect where they coincide. Four megatrends significant for the future of European agriculture at the regional scale are assessed: Climate change, demographic change, (post-) productivism shifts, and increasingly stringent environmental regulations. The direction and intensity of these megatrends differs between regions, which drives regions into different systemic lock-ins or dynamics. In most regions, megatrends converge to destabilize the current system, forewarning impending systemic changes. While the specific megatrends contributing to this instability differ regionally, this result highlights that many regions are on a dynamic rather than stable trajectory, and the governance challenge is to steer these dynamics towards a desirable future. However, some regions are found to be highly persistent, indicating that megatrends reinforce business as usual, and change needs to be triggered through purposeful governance. In a minority of regions megatrends may drive marginalization as the current system becomes increasingly unviable. We argue that research and policies concerning agricultural sustainability transitions should be cognizant of the regional diversity of European megatrends and the pressures they create

Landscape ecology meets landscape science

Landscape ecology is a broad field in a patchwork of related disciplines. Giving landscape ecology a definition and delimiting it from related research areas is both a challenge and a necessity. Past endeavors have focused on expert opinions, analyses of published papers, and conference proceedings. We used a mix of all three, including a unique keyword analysis in two leading landscape-related journals, to highlight latest developments in landscape ecology between 2010 and 2013. Our analysis confirms the key topics of Wu (Landscape Ecol 28(1):1-11, 2013), and suggests that of those connectivity is dominating in terms of research output. However, we also found evidence that the borders of the journal Landscape Ecology are fuzzier than sketched in recent publications. There is a large overlap with the journal Landscape and Urban Planning, and in general a growing weight of conservation, landscape management, and planning related issues in the landscape ecology community. We conclude by encouraging the continued inclusion and strengthening of socio-ecological hot topics such as urban studies and landscape-human interactions in landscape ecological studies and subsequently in the journal landscape ecology

Organic Wheat Farming Improves Grain Zinc Concentration

Zinc (Zn) nutrition is of key relevance in India, as a large fraction of the population suffers from Zn malnutrition and many soils contain little plant available Zn. In this study we compared organic and conventional wheat cropping systems with respect to DTPA (diethylene triamine pentaacetic acid)-extractable Zn as a proxy for plant available Zn, yield, and grain Zn concentration. We analyzed soil and wheat grain samples from 30 organic and 30 conventional farms in Madhya Pradesh (central India), and conducted farmer interviews to elucidate sociological and management variables. Total and DTPA-extractable soil Zn concentrations and grain yield (3400 kg ha-1) did not differ between the two farming systems, but with 32 and 28 mg kg-1 respectively, grain Zn concentrations were higher on organic than conventional farms (t = -2.2, p = 0.03). Furthermore, multiple linear regression analyses revealed that (a) total soil zinc and sulfur concentrations were the best predictors of DTPA-extractable soil Zn, (b) Olsen phosphate taken as a proxy for available soil phosphorus, exchangeable soil potassium, harvest date, training of farmers in nutrient management, and soil silt content were the best predictors of yield, and (c) yield, Olsen phosphate, grain nitrogen, farmyard manure availability, and the type of cropping system were the best predictors of grain Zn concentration. Results suggested that organic wheat contained more Zn despite same yield level due to higher nutrient efficiency. Higher nutrient efficiency was also seen in organic wheat for P, N and S. The study thus suggests that appropriate farm management can lead to competitive yield and improved Zn concentration in wheat grains on organic farms

Exploring agricultural landscape change from the second half of the twentieth century onwards: combining aerial imagery with farmer perspectives.

CONTEXT Anthropogenic landscape change is an important driver shaping our environment. Historical landscape analysis contributes to the monitoring and understanding of these change processes. Such analyses are often focused on specific spatial scales and single research methods, thus covering only limited aspects of landscape change. OBJECTIVES Here, we aim to assess the potential of combining the analysis of historical aerial imagery and local stakeholder interviews for landscape change studies using a standardized mapping and interviewing approach. METHODS We compared six agricultural landscapes across Europe and mapped land-cover using historical aerial imagery (starting between 1930 and 1980, depending on data availability, until recent years) with an object-based image analysis and random forest classification. For local perspectives of landscape change, we conducted oral history interviews (OHIs) with (almost) retired farmers. Comparing recorded landscape changes from both approaches provided insight into advantages of combining these two methods. RESULTS Object-based analysis enabled the identification of high-resolution land-cover dynamics, with scale enlargement and cropland/grassland expansion being the most commonly recurring trends across European landscapes. Perceived landscape changes identified in the OHIs included changes in farm management, landscape structure, and infrastructure. Farmers also reported drivers and personal values associated with landscape change. Combining the two historical landscape analysis tools resulted in a qualitative and quantitative understanding of changes in land-cover, land use, and land management. CONCLUSIONS Comparing physical land-cover change with local farmer perspectives is key to a comprehensive understanding of landscape change. There are different ways the two methods can be combined, leading to different venues for science and policy making. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10980-024-01914-z

Developing context-specific frameworks for integrated sustainability assessment of agricultural intensity change: An application for Europe

Agriculture plays a central role in achieving most Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Sustainable intensi- fication (SI) of agriculture has been proposed as a promising concept for safeguarding global food security, while simultaneously protecting the environment and promoting good quality of life. However, SI often leads to context-specific sustainability trade-offs. Operationalising SI thus needs to be supported by transparent sus- tainability assessments. In this article, we propose a general systematic approach to developing context-specific frameworks for integrated sustainability assessment of agricultural intensity change. Firstly, we specify a comprehensive system representation for analysing how changes in agricultural intensity lead to a multitude of sustainability outcomes affecting different societal groups across geographical scales. We then introduce a procedure for identifying the attributes that are relevant for assessment within particular contexts, and respective indicator metrics. Finally, we illustrate the proposed approach by developing an assessment framework for evaluating a wide range of intensification pathways in Europe. The application of the approach revealed pro- cesses and effects that are relevant for the European context but are rarely considered in SI assessments. These include farmers’ health, workers’ living conditions, cultural heritage and sense of place of rural communities, animal welfare, impacts on sectors not directly related to agriculture (e.g., tourism), shrinking and ageing of rural population and consumers’ health. The proposed approach addresses important gaps in SI assessments, and thus represents an important step forward in defining transparent procedures for sustainability assessments that can stimulate an informed debate about the operationalisation of SI and its contribution towards achieving SDGs

Farmer surveys in Europe suggest that specialized, intensive farms were more likely to perceive negative impacts from COVID-19.

It has been shown that the COVID-19 pandemic affected some agricultural systems more than others, and even within geographic regions, not all farms were affected to the same extent. To build resilience of agricultural systems to future shocks, it is key to understand which farms were affected and why. In this study, we examined farmers' perceived robustness to COVID-19, a key resilience capacity. We conducted standardized farmer interviews (n = 257) in 15 case study areas across Europe, covering a large range of socio-ecological contexts and farm types. Interviews targeted perceived livelihood impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on productivity, sales, price, labor availability, and supply chains in 2020, as well as farm(er) characteristics and farm management. Our study corroborates earlier evidence that most farms were not or only slightly affected by the first wave(s) of the pandemic in 2020, and that impacts varied widely by study region. However, a significant minority of farmers across Europe reported that the pandemic was "the worst crisis in a lifetime" (3%) or "the worst crisis in a decade" (7%). Statistical analysis showed that more specialized and intensive farms were more likely to have perceived negative impacts. From a societal perspective, this suggests that highly specialized, intensive farms face higher vulnerability to shocks that affect regional to global supply chains. Supporting farmers in the diversification of their production systems while decreasing dependence on service suppliers and supply chain actors may increase their robustness to future disruptions. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13593-022-00820-5

Microspectroscopy reveals dust-derived apatite grains in acidic, highly-weathered Hawaiian soils

Dust deposition is an important source of phosphorus (P) to many ecosystems. However, there is little evidence of dust-derived P-containing minerals in soils. Here we studied P forms along a well-described climatic gradient on Hawaii, which is also a dust deposition gradient. Soil mineralogy and soil P forms from six sites along the climatic gradient were analyzed with bulk (X-ray diffraction and P K-edge X-ray absorption near edge structure) and microscale (X-ray fluorescence, P K-edge X-ray absorption near edge structure, and Raman) analysis methods. In the wettest soils, apatite grains ranging from 5 to 30 µm in size were co-located at the micro-scale with quartz, a known continental dust indicator suggesting recent atmospheric deposition. In addition to co-location with quartz, further evidence of dust-derived P included backward trajectory modeling indicating that dust particles could be brought to Hawaii from the major global dust-loading areas in central Asia and northern Africa. Although it is not certain whether the individual observed apatite grains were derived from long-distance transport of dust, or from local dust sources such as volcanic ash or windblown fertilizer, these observations offer direct evidence that P-containing minerals have reached surface layers of highly-weathered grassland soils through atmospheric deposition

Ecosystem service state and trends at the regional to national level : A rapid assessment

The concept of ecosystem services has helped rationalize humanity's dependence on and benefits from nature, pushing the paradigm of environmental sustainability from a charity in the direction of a necessity. However, globally many ecosystem services are declining despite their eminent value for society. A prime cause of this decline is allocated to land use change. While the body of empirical research showing various consequences of land use is growing, and the ecosystem service concept has helped make trade-offs more graspable, a lucid approach that neatly summarizes the extent of land use trade-offs is still lacking. In this paper, we introduce a rapid assessment to analyze both the state and trends of selected ecosystem services associated with given land use categories. Theoretically, the assessment can be performed for any given spatial unit, but the regional to national level appears to be the most appropriate spatial resolution. Each land use-ecosystem service relationship is classified from a strong disservice to a strong service. The results are displayed in adapted flower diagrams, which legibly display information on the ecosystem services in each land use, thus clearly summarizing trade-offs associated with changing land use. We illustrate this rapid ecosystem service assessment method by applying it to three land use categories on the spatial extent of Switzerland. We found that the simple but systematic approach is more flexible than traditional mapping approaches, i.e. it allowed us to combine a variety of spatially non-explicit but highly detailed indicators with spatially explicit indicators. Also, we were able to proceed faster than with a mapping approach, where many known and unknown spatial inaccuracies may arise have allowed. This flexible incorporation of spatially explicit and non-explicit data provides high quality information on the state and trends of ecosystem services at regional to national extents. For that reason, we are convinced that the rapid assessment method has the potential to advance knowledge of ecosystem services and land use trade-offs, especially in areas with low data availability and monitoring activity