CENTRAL BANK INDEPENDENCE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: AN ANALYSIS OF THE LINK BETWEEN THEM

This paper presents a simple Barro-Gordon type model to explain the link between central bank independence (CBI) and inflation. It then extends the model to examine the link between CBI and economic growth. Using an index of CBI created by Cukierman, Webb and Neyapti (1992) the paper empirically tests the link between CBI, investment and growth. This paper finds no evidence that CBI promotes investment or growth.This paper presents a simple Barro-Gordon type model to explain the link between central bank independence (CBI) and inflation. It then extends the model to examine the link between CBI and economic growth. Using an index of CBI created by Cukierman, Webb and Neyapti (1992) the paper empirically tests the link between CBI, investment and growth. This paper finds no evidence that CBI promotes investment or growth

Independência do Banco Central e Equilíbrio Fiscal: Algumas observações para o caso brasileiro

The objective of this paper is to analyze the main theoretical arguments for the analysis of the conduction of monetary policy on the fiscal side. Besides this, an analysis is made of the possible effects on the fiscal balance from the conduction of the monetary policy in the search for price stability after the Real Plan and due to an increase in the central bank independence (CBI) in the Brazilian case. The findings denote that the strategy for the conduction of the adopted monetary policy and the increase in the degree of CBI did not contribute to an improvement in the fiscal balance.central bank independence, inflation, public debt

METAS PARA INFLAÇÃO E VARIÁVEIS MACROECONÔMICAS: UMA AVALIAÇÃO EMPÍRICA

The main objective of this paper is to analyze if the adoption of inflation targeting implies changes in the behavior of several macroeconomic variables, especially in the unemployment rate. For this, empirical evidences based on a set of fourteen countries that adopted explicit inflation targeting are shown. Furthermore, a particular analysis for the Brazilian case through a VAR that considers the following variables: unemployment rate, Selic, inflation, industrial production, and inflation targeting credibility, is made. Among several findings taken from international experience, it is observed that there is the possibility of unemployment-inflation trade-off becoming relevant after the adoption of targets. In relation to theBrazilian case, the main point for the attainment of good results for the economy is the neces sity of the monetary regime having a high credibility.

Credibilidade das metas de inflação: uma análise aplicada ao caso brasileiro

The main characteristic of the inflation targeting regime introduced in Brazil in June of 1999 is the announcement of official target ranges for the annual inflation rate. This paper offers a credibility index for inflation targets and verifies how the announced inflation target and the market's expectation for inflation explain the level of credibility

Brasil: cómo afectan las variables macroeconómicas a la confianza del consumidor

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Aspectos teoricos e empiricos sobre bancos centrais independentes: implicações para o caso brasileiro

In the 1990s the independence of central banks has been considered as a condition for achieving durable price stability. The discussion about the independence of central banks is based on theoretical arguments and empirical evidence. The theoretical argument has been based on the hypothesis that policy-makers are subject to the "inflation bias" The main empirical argument is that there is a negative correlation between the degree of independence of central bank and inflation. In this sense, the article analyzes the recent main principal arguments on independence of central banks. Last but not least important, it analyzes the case of Brazil

Metas de inflação: uma análise preliminar para o caso brasileiro

The tendency of a monetary policy designed to search for price stability has induced the adoption of inflation targets in several countries. The main characteristic ofthis monetary regime, is the announcement of official target ranges for the inflation rate at short and middle term horizons. The present paper analyzes the main discussions that guide the analysis concerning inflation targets. Thus, several questions are analyzed in the paper: the importance of credibility; the advantages from the increase of the transparency of the monetary policy; the difficulty in the attainment ofthe planned targets; and the results ofsome empirical evidence about inflation targets. Last but not least important, it is a preliminary analysis of the Brazilian case