The clustering of polarity reversals of the geomagnetic field

Often in nature the temporal distribution of inhomogeneous stochastic point processes can be modeled as a realization of renewal Poisson processes with a variable rate. Here we investigate one of the classical examples, namely the temporal distribution of polarity reversals of the geomagnetic field. In spite of the commonly used underlying hypothesis, we show that this process strongly departs from a Poisson statistics, the origin of this failure stemming from the presence of temporal clustering. We find that a Levy statistics is able to reproduce paleomagnetic data, thus suggesting the presence of long-range correlations in the underlying dynamo process.Comment: 4 pages, in press on PRL (31 march 2006?

Heliospheric Neutral Atom Spectra Between 0.01 and 6 keV fom IBEX

Since 2008 December, the Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) has been making detailed observations of neutrals from the boundaries of the heliosphere using two neutral atom cameras with overlapping energy ranges. The unexpected, yet defining feature discovered by IBEX is a Ribbon that extends over the energy range from about 0.2 to 6 keV. This Ribbon is superposed on a more uniform, globally distributed heliospheric neutral population. With some important exceptions, the focus of early IBEX studies has been on neutral atoms with energies greater than approx. 0.5 keV. With nearly three years of science observations, enough low-energy neutral atom measurements have been accumulated to extend IBEX observations to energies less than approx. 0.5 keV. Using the energy overlap of the sensors to identify and remove backgrounds, energy spectra over the entire IBEX energy range are produced. However, contributions by interstellar neutrals to the energy spectrum below 0.2 keV may not be completely removed. Compared with spectra at higher energies, neutral atom spectra at lower energies do not vary much from location to location in the sky, including in the direction of the IBEX Ribbon. Neutral fluxes are used to show that low energy ions contribute approximately the same thermal pressure as higher energy ions in the heliosheath. However, contributions to the dynamic pressure are very high unless there is, for example, turbulence in the heliosheath with fluctuations of the order of 50-100 km/s

Forecasting yearly geomagnetic variation through sequential estimation of core low and magnetic diffusion

Earth’s internal magnetic field is generated through motion of the electrically conductive iron-alloy fluid comprising its outer core. Temporal variability of this magnetic field, termed secular variation (SV), results from two processes: one is the interaction between core fluid motion and the magnetic field, the other is magnetic diffusion. As diffusion is widely thought to take place over relatively long, millennial time scales, it is common to disregard it when considering yearly to decadal field changes; in this frozen-flux approximation, core fluid motion may be inferred on the core–mantle boundary (CMB) using observations of SV at Earth’s surface. Such flow models have been used to forecast variation in the magnetic field. However, recent work suggests that diffusion may also contribute significantly to SV on short time scales provided that the radial length scale of the magnetic field structure within the core is sufficiently short. In this work, we introduce a hybrid method to forecast field evolution that considers a model based on both a steady flow and diffusion, in which we adopt a two-step process: first fitting the SV to a steady flow, and then fitting the residual by magnetic diffusion. We assess this approach by hindcasting the evolution for 2010–2015, based on fitting the models to CHAOS-6 using time windows prior to 2010. We find that including diffusion yields a reduction of up to 25% in the global hindcast error at Earth’s surface; at the CMB this error reduction can be in excess of 77%. We show that fitting the model over the shortest window that we consider, 2009–2010, yields the lowest hindcast error. Based on our hindcast tests, we present a candidate model for the SV over 2020–2025 for IGRF-13, fit over the time window 2018.3–2019.3. Our forecasts indicate that over the next decade the axial dipole will continue to decay, reversed-flux patches will increase in both area and intensity, and the north magnetic (dip) pole will continue to migrate towards Siberia

Heliospheric neutral atom spectra between 0.01 and 6 keV from IBEX

Since 2008 December, the Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) has been making detailed observations of neutrals from the boundaries of the heliosphere using two neutral atom cameras with overlapping energy ranges. The unexpected, yet defining feature discovered by IBEX is a Ribbon that extends over the energy range from about 0.2 to 6 keV. This Ribbon is superposed on a more uniform, globally distributed heliospheric neutral population. With some important exceptions, the focus of early IBEX studies has been on neutral atoms with energies greater than ~0.5 keV. With nearly three years of science observations, enough low-energy neutral atom measurements have been accumulated to extend IBEX observations to energies less than ~0.5 keV. Using the energy overlap of the sensors to identify and remove backgrounds, energy spectra over the entire IBEX energy range are produced. However, contributions by interstellar neutrals to the energy spectrum below 0.2 keV may not be completely removed. Compared with spectra at higher energies, neutral atom spectra at lower energies do not vary much from location to location in the sky, including in the direction of the IBEX Ribbon. Neutral fluxes are used to show that low energy ions contribute approximately the same thermal pressure as higher energy ions in the heliosheath. However, contributions to the dynamic pressure are very high unless there is, for example, turbulence in the heliosheath with fluctuations of the order of 50-100 km s[superscript –1].United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Explorers Progra