Jon Mitchell

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Northern Bobwhite Demographics and Resource Selection Are Explained by Prescribed Fire with Grazing and Woody Cover in Southwest Missouri

Understanding the effects of landscape management on northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus; hereafter, bobwhite) population growth requires information about seasonal- and stage-specific demographic parameters linked across the annual cycle. We review results to date from 3 years (2016–2018) of an intensive field study evaluating drivers of bobwhite population dynamics and resource selection during the breeding and non-breeding season in southwest Missouri, USA using data from adult and juvenile bobwhite fitted with radio-transmitters. Land cover of our study sites ranged from large blocks of native grasslands maintained with prescribed fire and grazing to more traditional management resulting in small patches of grasslands interspersed with food plots, disked idle areas, and woody cover. During the breeding season, relative probability of selection by broods increased in relation to proportion of native grass managed by grazing and burning and proportion of cropland. Brood survival was also greatest on native grasslands burned and grazed within the past 2 growing seasons. During the fall and winter, relative probability of selection by adults increased as woody edge density increased. Fall and winter survival increased as distance from trees increased and decreased as distance to shrubs increased. Our integrated population model indicated that the number of young hatched per female and adult breeding season survival were greatest on sites with the most native grassland managed by prescribed fire with grazing. However, non-breeding season survival was greater on sites with more agriculture or food plots and woody cover. Abundance declined across all sites from 2016 to 2019. Our work suggests that native grasslands managed by prescribed fire with grazing can provide quail habitat superior to traditional management that strived for a mixture of agriculture, woody cover, and grassland. The combination of conservation grazing and fire in native grasslands interspersed with shrubs may provide the greatest chance for bobwhite populations to persist in southwest Missouri and similar landscapes

A transmission spectrum of the sub-Earth planet L98-59~b in 1.1-1.7 μ\mum

With the increasing number of planets discovered by TESS, the atmospheric characterization of small exoplanets is accelerating. L98-59 is a M-dwarf hosting a multi-planet system, and so far, four small planets have been confirmed. The innermost planet b is $\sim15\%$ smaller and $\sim60\%$ lighter than Earth, and should thus have a predominantly rocky composition. The Hubble Space Telescope observed five primary transits of L98-59b in $1.1-1.7\ \mu$m, and here we report the data analysis and the resulting transmission spectrum of the planet. We measure the transit depths for each of the five transits and, by combination, we obtain a transmission spectrum with an overall precision of $\sim20$ ppm in for each of the 18 spectrophotometric channels. With this level of precision, the transmission spectrum does not show significant modulation, and is thus consistent with a planet without any atmosphere or a planet having an atmosphere and high-altitude clouds or haze. The scenarios involving an aerosol-free, H$_2$-dominated atmosphere with H$_2$O or CH$_4$ are inconsistent with the data. The transmission spectrum also disfavors, but does not rules out, an H$_2$O-dominated atmosphere without clouds. A spectral retrieval process suggests that an H$_2$-dominated atmosphere with HCN and clouds or haze may be the preferred solution, but this indication is non-conclusive. Future James Webb Space Telescope observations may find out the nature of the planet among the remaining viable scenarios.Comment: 17 pages, 5 figures, 7 tables, accepted for publication in A

The Pandora SmallSat: Multiwavelength Characterization of Exoplanets and their Host Stars

Pandora is a SmallSat mission concept, selected as part of NASA’s Astrophysics Pioneers Program, designed to study the atmospheres of exoplanets using transmission spectroscopy. Transmission spectroscopy of transiting exoplanets provides our best opportunity to identify the makeup of planetary atmospheres in the coming decade. Stellar brightness variations due to star spots, however, can seep into these measurements and contaminate the observed spectra. Pandora is designed to disentangle star and planet signals in transmission spectra and reliably characterize the planetary atmospheres. Pandora will collect long-duration photometric observations with a visible-light channel, and simultaneous spectra with a near-IR channel, where water is a strong molecular absorber. The broad wavelength coverage will provide constraints on spot covering fractions of the stars and determine the impact of these active regions on the planetary spectra. Pandora will observe at least 20 exoplanets with sizes ranging from Earth-size to Jupiter-size, with host stars spanning mid-K to late-M spectral types. The project is made possible by leveraging investments in other projects, including an all-aluminum 0.45-meter Cassegrain telescope design, and an IR sensor chip assembly from the James Webb Space Telescope. The mission will last five years from initial formulation to closeout, with one-year of science operations. Launch is planned for the mid-2020s as a secondary payload in Sun-synchronous low-Earth orbit. By design, Pandora has a diverse team, with over half of mission leadership roles filled by early career scientists and engineers, demonstrating the high value of SmallSats for developing the next generation of space mission leaders

Two Warm Super-Earths Transiting the Nearby M Dwarf TOI-2095

We report the detection and validation of two planets orbiting TOI-2095 (TIC 235678745). The host star is a 3700K M1V dwarf with a high proper motion. The star lies at a distance of 42 pc in a sparsely populated portion of the sky and is bright in the infrared (K=9). With data from 24 Sectors of observation during TESS's Cycles 2 and 4, TOI-2095 exhibits two sets of transits associated with super-Earth-sized planets. The planets have orbital periods of 17.7 days and 28.2 days and radii of 1.30 and 1.39 Earth radii, respectively. Archival data, preliminary follow-up observations, and vetting analyses support the planetary interpretation of the detected transit signals. The pair of planets have estimated equilibrium temperatures of approximately 400 K, with stellar insolations of 3.23 and 1.73 times that of Earth, placing them in the Venus zone. The planets also lie in a radius regime signaling the transition between rock-dominated and volatile-rich compositions. They are thus prime targets for follow-up mass measurements to better understand the properties of warm, transition radius planets. The relatively long orbital periods of these two planets provide crucial data that can help shed light on the processes that shape the composition of small planets orbiting M dwarfs.Comment: Submitted to AAS Journal

The Efficacy of Exercise in Reducing Depressive Symptoms among Cancer Survivors: A Meta-Analysis

INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this meta-analysis was to examine the efficacy of exercise to reduce depressive symptoms among cancer survivors. In addition, we examined the extent to which exercise dose and clinical characteristics of cancer survivors influence the relationship between exercise and reductions in depressive symptoms. METHODS: We conducted a systematic search identifying randomized controlled trials of exercise interventions among adult cancer survivors, examining depressive symptoms as an outcome. We calculated effect sizes for each study and performed weighted multiple regression moderator analysis. RESULTS: We identified 40 exercise interventions including 2,929 cancer survivors. Diverse groups of cancer survivors were examined in seven exercise interventions; breast cancer survivors were examined in 26; prostate cancer, leukemia, and lymphoma were examined in two; and colorectal cancer in one. Cancer survivors who completed an exercise intervention reduced depression more than controls, d(+) = -0.13 (95% CI: -0.26, -0.01). Increases in weekly volume of aerobic exercise reduced depressive symptoms in dose-response fashion (β = -0.24, p = 0.03), a pattern evident only in higher quality trials. Exercise reduced depressive symptoms most when exercise sessions were supervised (β = -0.26, p = 0.01) and when cancer survivors were between 47-62 yr (β = 0.27, p = 0.01). CONCLUSION: Exercise training provides a small overall reduction in depressive symptoms among cancer survivors but one that increased in dose-response fashion with weekly volume of aerobic exercise in high quality trials. Depressive symptoms were reduced to the greatest degree among breast cancer survivors, among cancer survivors aged between 47-62 yr, or when exercise sessions were supervised

The Missing Medians:Exclusion of Ordinal Data from Meta-Analyses

BACKGROUND:Meta-analyses are considered the gold standard of evidence-based health care, and are used to guide clinical decisions and health policy. A major limitation of current meta-analysis techniques is their inability to pool ordinal data. Our objectives were to determine the extent of this problem in the context of neurological rating scales and to provide a solution. METHODS:Using an existing database of clinical trials of oral neuroprotective therapies, we identified the 6 most commonly used clinical rating scales and recorded how data from these scales were reported and analysed. We then identified systematic reviews of studies that used these scales (via the Cochrane database) and recorded the meta-analytic techniques used. Finally, we identified a statistical technique for calculating a common language effect size measure for ordinal data. RESULTS:We identified 103 studies, with 128 instances of the 6 clinical scales being reported. The majority- 80%-reported means alone for central tendency, with only 13% reporting medians. In analysis, 40% of studies used parametric statistics alone, 34% of studies employed non-parametric analysis, and 26% did not include or specify analysis. Of the 60 systematic reviews identified that included meta-analysis, 88% used mean difference and 22% employed difference in proportions; none included rank-based analysis. We propose the use of a rank-based generalised odds ratio (WMW GenOR) as an assumption-free effect size measure that is easy to compute and can be readily combined in meta-analysis. CONCLUSION:There is wide scope for improvement in the reporting and analysis of ordinal data in the literature. We hope that adoption of the WMW GenOR will have the dual effect of improving the reporting of data in individual studies while also increasing the inclusivity (and therefore validity) of meta-analyses

Functional Morphometric Analysis of the Furcula in Mesozoic Birds

The furcula displays enormous morphological and structural diversity. Acting as an important origin for flight muscles involved in the downstroke, the form of this element has been shown to vary with flight mode. This study seeks to clarify the strength of this form-function relationship through the use of eigenshape morphometric analysis coupled with recently developed phylogenetic comparative methods (PCMs), including phylogenetic Flexible Discriminant Analysis (pFDA). Additionally, the morphospace derived from the furculae of extant birds is used to shed light on possible flight adaptations of Mesozoic fossil taxa. While broad conclusions of earlier work are supported (U-shaped furculae are associated with soaring, strong anteroposterior curvature with wing-propelled diving), correlations between form and function do not appear to be so clear-cut, likely due to the significantly larger dataset and wider spectrum of flight modes sampled here. Interclavicular angle is an even more powerful discriminator of flight mode than curvature, and is positively correlated with body size. With the exception of the close relatives of modern birds, the ornithuromorphs, Mesozoic taxa tend to occupy unique regions of morphospace, and thus may have either evolved unfamiliar flight styles or have arrived at similar styles through divergent musculoskeletal configurations

Diving into the vertical dimension of elasmobranch movement ecology

Knowledge of the three-dimensional movement patterns of elasmobranchs is vital to understand their ecological roles and exposure to anthropogenic pressures. To date, comparative studies among species at global scales have mostly focused on horizontal movements. Our study addresses the knowledge gap of vertical movements by compiling the first global synthesis of vertical habitat use by elasmobranchs from data obtained by deployment of 989 biotelemetry tags on 38 elasmobranch species. Elasmobranchs displayed high intra- and interspecific variability in vertical movement patterns. Substantial vertical overlap was observed for many epipelagic elasmobranchs, indicating an increased likelihood to display spatial overlap, biologically interact, and share similar risk to anthropogenic threats that vary on a vertical gradient. We highlight the critical next steps toward incorporating vertical movement into global management and monitoring strategies for elasmobranchs, emphasizing the need to address geographic and taxonomic biases in deployments and to concurrently consider both horizontal and vertical movements

Diving into the vertical dimension of elasmobranch movement ecology

Knowledge of the three-dimensional movement patterns of elasmobranchs is vital to understand their ecological roles and exposure to anthropogenic pressures. To date, comparative studies among species at global scales have mostly focused on horizontal movements. Our study addresses the knowledge gap of vertical movements by compiling the first global synthesis of vertical habitat use by elasmobranchs from data obtained by deployment of 989 biotelemetry tags on 38 elasmobranch species. Elasmobranchs displayed high intra- and interspecific variability in vertical movement patterns. Substantial vertical overlap was observed for many epipelagic elasmobranchs, indicating an increased likelihood to display spatial overlap, biologically interact, and share similar risk to anthropogenic threats that vary on a vertical gradient. We highlight the critical next steps toward incorporating vertical movement into global management and monitoring strategies for elasmobranchs, emphasizing the need to address geographic and taxonomic biases in deployments and to concurrently consider both horizontal and vertical movements