Why my disease is important: metrics of disease occurrence used in the introductory sections of papers in three leading general medical journals in 1993 and 2003.

BACKGROUND: We assessed the metrics used in claims about disease importance made in the introductory sections of scientific papers published in 1993 and 2003. We were interested in the choice of metric in circumstances where establishing the relative social importance of a disease was, presumptively, a primary objective. METHODS: This study consisted of a textual examination of the introductory statements from papers retrieved from MEDLINE. Papers were published in the New England Journal of Medicine, The Lancet, and the Journal of the American Medical Association during the first halves of 1993 and 2003, and were selected on the basis of keywords found in a pilot study to be associated with claims about disease importance. RESULTS: We found 143 papers in 1993 and 264 papers in 2003 included claims about disease importance in their introductory sections, and characteristics of these claims were abstracted. Of the quotes identified in the papers and articles examined, most used counts, prevalence, or incidence measurements. Some also used risk estimates and economic quantities to convey the importance of the disease. There was no change in the types of metrics used between 1993 and 2003. Very few articles, even in 2003, used metrics that weighted disease onsets by the expected consequent loss of healthy time -- such as years of life lost, quality-adjusted life years, and/or disability-adjusted life years. CONCLUSIONS: Claims about the relative importance of diseases continued to be overwhelmingly expressed in terms of counts (of deaths and disease onsets) and comparisons of counts, rates, and risks. Where the aim is to convey the burden that a given disease imposes on a society, "event-based" metrics might be less fit for the purpose than "time-based" metrics. More attention is needed to how the choice of metric should relate to the purpose at hand.RIGHTS : This article is licensed under the BioMed Central licence at http://www.biomedcentral.com/about/license which is similar to the 'Creative Commons Attribution Licence'. In brief you may : copy, distribute, and display the work; make derivative works; or make commercial use of the work - under the following conditions: the original author must be given credit; for any reuse or distribution, it must be made clear to others what the license terms of this work are

Why choice of metric matters in public health analyses: a case study of the attribution of credit for the decline in coronary heart disease mortality in the US and other populations

RIGHTS : This article is licensed under the BioMed Central licence at http://www.biomedcentral.com/about/license which is similar to the 'Creative Commons Attribution Licence'. In brief you may : copy, distribute, and display the work; make derivative works; or make commercial use of the work - under the following conditions: the original author must be given credit; for any reuse or distribution, it must be made clear to others what the license terms of this work are.Abstract Background Reasons for the widespread declines in coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in high income countries are controversial. Here we explore how the type of metric chosen for the analyses of these declines affects the answer obtained. Methods The analyses we reviewed were performed using IMPACT, a large Excel based model of the determinants of temporal change in mortality from CHD. Assessments of the decline in CHD mortality in the USA between 1980 and 2000 served as the central case study. Results Analyses based in the metric of number of deaths prevented attributed about half the decline to treatments (including preventive medications) and half to favourable shifts in risk factors. However, when mortality change was expressed in the metric of life-years-gained, the share attributed to risk factor change rose to 65%. This happened because risk factor changes were modelled as slowing disease progression, such that the hypothetical deaths averted resulted in longer average remaining lifetimes gained than the deaths averted by better treatments. This result was robust to a range of plausible assumptions on the relative effect sizes of changes in treatments and risk factors. Conclusions Time-based metrics (such as life years) are generally preferable because they direct attention to the changes in the natural history of disease that are produced by changes in key health determinants. The life-years attached to each death averted will also weight deaths in a way that better reflects social preferences.Peer Reviewe

Strengthening health information systems for disability-related rehabilitation in LMICs

The purpose of this study was to describe the state of rehabilitation health information systems (HIS) in different settings, and identify key processes and actions which contribute to the development of HIS which can effectively support low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) allocate resources to health-related rehabilitation to people with disabilities. Nine case studies were conducted across different disability and developmental settings using documentary review and semi-structured key informant interviews (N = 41). Results were analysed against the six building blocks of a HIS, based on the Health Metrics Network Framework and Standards for Country Health Information Systems and existing HIS capacity. Key barriers or enablers to good disability data collection and use, were documented for each HIS component. Research results suggest there is no gold standard HIS for rehabilitation. There was broad consensus however, that effective health related disability planning requires reliable data on disability prevalence, functional status, access to rehabilitation services and functional outcomes of rehabilitation. For low-resource settings, and where routine HIS are already challenged, planning to include disability and rehabilitation foci starting with a minimum dataset on functioning, and progressively improving the system for increased utility and harmonization, is likely to be most effective and minimize the potential for overburdening fragile systems. The recommendations from this study are based on the successes and challenges of countries with established information systems, and will assist LMICs to prioritize strategic measures to strengthen the collection and use of data for rehabilitation, and progressively realize the rights of people with disabilities

Seismic behaviour of geotechnical structures

This paper deals with some fundamental considerations regarding the behaviour of geotechnical structures under seismic loading. First a complete definition of the earthquake disaster risk is provided, followed by the importance of performing site-specific hazard analysis. Then some suggestions are provided in regard to adequate assessment of soil parameters, a crucial point to properly analyze the seismic behaviour of geotechnical structures. The core of the paper is centered on a critical review of the analysis methods available for studying geotechnical structures under seismic loadings. All of the available methods can be classified into three main classes, including the pseudo-static, pseudo-dynamic and dynamic approaches, each of which is reviewed for applicability. A more advanced analysis procedure, suitable for a so-called performance-based design approach, is also described in the paper. Finally, the seismic behaviour of the El Infiernillo Dam was investigated. It was shown that coupled elastoplastic dynamic analyses disclose some of the important features of dam behaviour under seismic loading, confirmed by comparing analytical computation and experimental measurements on the dam body during and after a past earthquake

The impact of healthcare insurance on the utilisation of facility-based delivery for childbirth in the Philippines

Objectives In recent years, the government of the Philippines embarked upon an ambitious Universal Health Care program, underpinned by the rapid scale-up of subsidized insurance coverage for poor and vulnerable populations. With a view of reducing the stubbornly high maternal mortality rates in the country, the program has a strong focus on maternal health services and is supported by a national policy of universal facility-based delivery (FBD). In this study, we examine the impact that recent reforms expanding health insurance coverage have had on FBD. Results Data from the most recent Philippines 2013 Demographic Health Survey was employed. This study applies quasi-experimental methods using propensity scores along with alternative matching techniques and weighted regression to control for self-selection and investigate the impact of health insurance on the utilization of FBD. Findings Our findings reveal that the likelihood of FBD for women who are insured is between 5 to 10 percent higher than for those without insurance. The impact of health insurance is more pronounced amongst rural and poor women for whom insurance leads to a 9 to 11 per cent higher likelihood of FBD. Conclusions We conclude that increasing health insurance coverage is likely to be an effective approach to increase women's access to FBD. Our findings suggest that when such coverage is subsidized, as it is the case in the Philippines, women from poor and rural populations are likely to benefit the most

Essays on Sovereign Risk and Banking

This thesis consists of three essays on sovereign risk and banking. In the first essay, we examine the determinants of sovereign risk in the Eurozone focusing on the recent crisis episode and search for a self-fulfilling contagion link by using an exogenous ECB policy announcement for identification. our principal components analysis reveals that the perceived commonality in default risk among peripheral and core Eurozone countries increased after the announcement. An event study detects significant pre-announcement news transmission from Spain to Italy, Belgium, France and Austria that clearly dissipates post-announcement. Country-specific regressions of CDS spreads on systematic risk factors illustrate frequent days of large adverse shocks affecting simultaneously those same Eurozone countries during the pre-announcement period; but not afterwards. Altogether these findings support the view that market expectations during Eurozone crisis were at least partially self-fulfilling and ECB policy helped to contain such adverse dynamics. In the second essay we focus on European banks' sovereign bond exposures. By using a novel bank-level dataset covering the entire timeline of the Eurozone crisis, we first reconfirm that the crisi led to the reallocation of sovereign debt from foreign to domestic banks. This reallocation was only visible for banks as opposed to other domestic private agents and it cannot be explained by the banks' risk-shifting tendency. In contrast to the recent literature focusing only on sovereign debt. We show that the bank's private sector exposures were (at least) equally affected by a rise in home bias. Finally, we propose a new debt reallocation channel based on informational frictions and show that crisi-country debt was not only reallocated to domestic banks, but also to the informationally closer foreign banks. Our results imply that informational asymmetries among banks played a key role in the recent fragmentation across Eurozone debt markets. In the third essay, our investigation shifts towards political economy aspects of the relationship between sovereigns and domestic banks. We use date on the universe of credit extended over a 14 year period in Turkey to document a strong political lending cycle. We find that state-owned banks systemically adjust their provincial lending around local elections relative to the private banks in the same province. there is considerable tactical redistribution: state-pwned banks increase loans in politically competitive provinces with a current mayor aligned with the ruling party but reduce it in similar provinces with a current mayor from opposition.this effect only exists in corporate lending as opposed to consumer loans, suggesting that tactical redistribution targets job creation to increase electoral success. Such political lending also seems to influence real outcomes as the credit constrained opposition areas suffer a drop in economic output as measured by local construction activity

New challenges for verbal autopsy: considering the ethical and social implications of verbal autopsy methods in routine health information systems

Verbal autopsy (VA) methods are designed to collect cause-of-death information from populations where many deaths occur outside of health facilities and where death certification is weak or absent. A VA consists of an interview with a relative or carer of a recently deceased individual in order to gather information on the signs and symptoms the decedent presented with prior to death. These details are then used to determine and assign a likely cause-of-death. At a population level this information can be invaluable to help guide prioritisation and direct health policy and services. To date VAs have largely been restricted to research contexts but many countries are now venturing to incorporate VA methods into routine civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems. Given the sensitive nature of death, however, there are a number of ethical, legal and social issues that should be considered when scaling-up VAs, particularly in the cross-cultural and socio-economically disadvantaged environments in which they are typically applied. Considering each step of the VA process this paper provides a narrative review of the social context of VA methods. Harnessing the experiences of applying and rolling out VAs as part of routine CRVS systems in a number of low and middle income countries, we identify potential issues that countries and implementing institutions need to consider when incorporating VAs into CRVS systems and point to areas that could benefit from further research and deliberation

Prevalence of non-communicable disease risk factors in three sites across Papua New Guinea: a cross-sectional study

Papua New Guinea (PNG) is a culturally, environmentally and ethnically diverse country of 7.3 million people experiencing rapid economic development and social change. Such development is typically associated with an increase in non-communicable disease (NCD) risk factors.To establish the prevalence of NCD risk factors in three different regions across PNG in order to guide appropriate prevention and control measures.A cross-sectional survey was undertaken with randomly selected adults (15-65 years), stratified by age and sex recruited from the general population of integrated Health and Demographic Surveillance Sites in West Hiri (periurban), Asaro (rural highland) and Karkar Island (rural island), PNG. A modified WHO STEPS risk factor survey was administered along with anthropometric and biochemical measures on study participants.The prevalence of NCD risk factors was markedly different across the three sites. For example, the prevalences of current alcohol consumption at 43% (95% CI 35 to 52), stress at 46% (95% CI 40 to 52), obesity at 22% (95% CI 18 to 28), hypertension at 22% (95% CI 17 to 28), elevated levels of cholesterol at 24% (95% CI 19 to 29) and haemoglobin A1c at 34% (95% CI 29 to 41) were highest in West Hiri relative to the rural areas. However, central obesity at 90% (95% CI 86 to 93) and prehypertension at 55% (95% CI 42 to 62) were most common in Asaro whereas prevalences of smoking, physical inactivity and low high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol levels at 52% (95% CI 45 to 59), 34% (95% CI 26 to 42) and 62% (95% CI 56 to 68), respectively, were highest in Karkar Island.Adult residents in the three different communities are at high risk of developing NCDs, especially the West Hiri periurban population. There is an urgent need for appropriate multisectoral preventive interventions and improved health services. Improved monitoring and control of NCD risk factors is also needed in all regions across PNG

The Burden of Trachoma in South Sudan: Assessing the Health Losses from a Condition of Graded Severity

Trachoma is an infectious disease that is endemic to the Republic of South Sudan. In the absence of appropriate treatment recurrent re-infection in an individual will lead to progressively severe states of trachoma, eventually leading to the loss of visual acuity and finally blindness. Here we distinguish between three separate states of disease: trachoma with normal vision, trachoma with low vision and trachoma with blindness. The first of these states, trachoma with normal vision, is the least severe and the impact of this state on a population has not been well investigated. Trachoma, even before any loss of vision, comes with a great deal of pain and social consequences, and thus disability. In this study we employ data from South Sudan and estimate the burden caused by trachoma with normal vision for the first time. In doing so, we also reveal the extent of the gaps in our knowledge surrounding the natural history of trachoma and highlight areas of research that require urgent attention

What Will Happen If We Do Nothing To Control Trachoma: Health Expectancies for Blinding Trachoma in Southern Sudan

Summary measures of population health attempt to express disease burden in terms of a common “currency” and are useful in establishing public health priorities. Disability adjusted life years (DALYs), a health gap measure, have previously been used to estimate burden due to trachoma; however, their methods and results have limitations. This study demonstrates the application of the health expectancies to estimate burden due to trachoma. The study illustrates the future burden associated with doing nothing to control trachoma in Southern Sudan: a substantial proportion of remaining life expectancy spent with trichiasis and low vision or blindness for both men and women, with a disproportionate burden falling on women. The results presented are intuitively meaningful for policy makers and a non-technical audience and compare favourably with other indicators such as mortality and incidence rates or DALYs, which are not generally easily understood. Unless action is taken by further delivery of trachoma control interventions, then populations in Southern Sudan can expect to spend a substantial proportion of their life with low vision or blindness due to trachoma