Syndromic surveillance of influenza-like illness in Scotland during the influenza A H1N1v pandemic and beyond

Syndromic surveillance refers to the rapid monitoring of syndromic data to highlight and follow outbreaks of infectious diseases, increasing situational awareness. Such systems are based upon statistical models to described routinely collected health data. We describe a working exception reporting system (ERS) currently used in Scotland to monitor calls received to the NHS telephone helpline, NHS24. We demonstrate the utility of the system to describe the time series data from NHS24 both at an aggregated Scotland level and at the individual health board level for two case studies, firstly during the initial phase of the 2009 Influenza A H1N1v and secondly for the emergence of seasonal influenza in each winter season from 2006/07 and 2010/11. In particular, we focus on a localised cluster of infection in the Highland health board and the ability of the system to highlight this outbreak. Caveats of the system, including the effect of media reporting of the pandemic on the results and the associated statistical issues, will be discussed. We discuss the adaptability and timeliness of the system and how this continues to form part of a suite of surveillance used to give early warnings to public health decision makers

Preferences for interventions designed to increase cervical screening uptake in non-attending young women: how findings from a discrete choice experiment compare with observed behaviours in a trial

Background Young women’s attendance at cervical screening in the UK is continuing to fall and the incidence of invasive cervical cancer has begun to rise. Objectives We assessed the preferences of non-attending young women for alternative ways of delivering cervical screening. Design Postal discrete choice experiment (DCE) conducted during the STRATEGIC study of interventions for increasing cervical screening uptake. Attributes included action required to arrange a test, location of the test, availability of a nurse navigator and cost to the NHS. Setting and participants Non-attending young women in two UK regions. Main outcome measures Responses were analysed using a mixed multinomial logit model. A predictive analysis identified the most preferable strategy compared to current screening. Preferences from the DCE were compared with women’s observed behaviours during the STRATEGIC trial. Results The DCE response rate was 5.5% (222/4000) and 94% of respondents agreed screening is important. Preference heterogeneity existed around all attributes with strong evidence for test location. Relative to current screening, unsolicited self-sampling kits for home use appeared most preferable. The STRATEGIC trial showed this same intervention to be most effective although many women who received it and were screened attended for conventional cytology instead. Conclusions The DCE and trial identified the unsolicited self-sampling kit as the most preferred / effective intervention. Data from the DCE suggested that the decision of some women receiving the kit in the trial to attend for conventional cytology may be due to anxieties around home testing coupled with a knowledge that ignoring the kit could potentially have life changing consequences. Keywords: cervical cancer; screening uptake; young women; preferences; discrete choice experiments; heterogeneity; United Kingdo

Predicted COVID-19 positive cases, hospitalisations, and deaths associated with the Delta variant of concern, June–July, 2021

Funding Information: Our thanks to the Early Pandemic Evaluation and Enhanced Surveillance of COVID-19 (EAVE II) patient advisory group for their support. EAVE II is funded by the Medical Research Council ( MR/R008345/1 ) with the support of BREATHE - The Health Data Research Hub for Respiratory Health [MC_PC_19004], which is funded through the UK Research and Innovation Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund and delivered through Health Data Research UK. Additional support has been provided through Public Health Scotland and Scottish Government DG Health and Social Care and the Data and Connectivity National Core Study, led by Health Data Research UK in partnership with the Office for National Statistics and funded by UK Research and Innovation. SVK is funded by a NHS Research Scotland Senior Clinical Fellowship (SCAF/15/02), the Medical Research Council (MC_UU_00022/2), and the Scottish Government Chief Scientist Office (SPHSU17).Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Using a realist approach to evaluate smoking cessation interventions targeting pregnant women and young people

Background This paper describes a study protocol designed to evaluate a programme of smoking cessation interventions targeting pregnant women and young people living in urban and rural locations in Northeast Scotland. The study design was developed on so-called 'realist' evaluation principles, which are concerned with the implementation of interventions as well as their outcomes. Methods/design A two-phased study was designed based on the Theory of Change (TOC) using mixed methods to assess both process and outcome factors. The study was designed with input from the relevant stakeholders. The mixed-methods approach consists of semi-structured interviews with planners, service providers, service users and non-users. These qualitative interviews will be analysed using a thematic framework approach. The quantitative element of the study will include the analysis of routinely collected data and specific project monitoring data, such as data on service engagement, service use, quit rates and changes in smoking status. Discussion The process of involving key stakeholders was conducted using logic modelling and TOC tools. Engaging stakeholders, including those responsible for funding, developing and delivering, and those intended to benefit from interventions aimed at them, in their evaluation design, are considered by many to increase the validity and rigour of the subsequent evidence generated. This study is intended to determine not only the components and processes, but also the possible effectiveness of this set of health interventions, and contribute to the evidence base about smoking cessation interventions aimed at priority groups in Scotland. It is also anticipated that this study will contribute to the ongoing debate about the role and challenges of 'realist' evaluation approaches in general, and the utility of logic modelling and TOC approaches in particular, for evaluation of complex health interventions

Environmental aspects of health care in the Grampian NHS region and the place of telehealth

Detailed information about the composition of the carbon footprint of the NHS in the Grampian health region, and in Scotland generally, is not available at present. Based on the limited information available, our best guess is that travel emissions in Grampian are substantial, perhaps 49,000 tonnes CO2 per year. This is equivalent to 233 million km of car travel per year. A well-established telemedicine network in the Grampian region, which saves over 2000 patient journeys a year from community hospitals, avoids about 260,000 km travel per year, or about 59 tonnes CO2 per year. Therefore using telehealth as it has been used historically (primarily to facilitate hospital-to-hospital interactions) seems unlikely to have a major environmental impact – although of course there may be other good reasons for persevering with conventional telehealth. On the other hand, telehealth might be useful in reducing staff travel and to a lesser extent, visitor travel. It looks particularly promising for reducing outpatient travel, where substantial carbon savings might be made by reconfiguring the way that certain services are provided

Examination of the risk of reinfection with hepatitis C among injecting drug users who have been tested in Glasgow

Unsafe injecting practices put injecting drug users (IDUs) at repeat exposure to infection with the hepatitis C virus (HCV). It has not yet been determined if spontaneously clearing one's primary infection influences the risk of reinfection; our aim was to estimate the relative risk of reinfection in IDUs who have cleared the virus. We conducted a retrospective study using a large database of HCV test results covering Greater Glasgow Health Board during 1993–2007 to calculate rates of infection and reinfection in current/former IDUs. The relative risk of (re)infection in previously infected compared with never-infected IDUs was estimated using Poisson regression, adjusting for age at study entry, sex, and calendar period of test. Although the rate of reinfection in IDUs who were HCV antibody-positive, RNA-negative at baseline was lower (7/100 person-years, 95% CI: 5–9) than the rate of acute infection in IDUs who were HCV antibody-negative at baseline (10/100 person-years, 95% CI: 9–12), the risk of reinfection was not significantly different than the risk of initial infection (adjusted rate ratio = 0.78, 95% CI: 0.57–1.08). We found only weak evidence for a reduced risk of HCV reinfection in IDUs who had cleared their previous infection. Further research among those who have cleared infection through antiviral therapy is needed to help inform decisions regarding treatment of IDUs

Tales of The Sea: Connecting people with dementia to the UK heritage through maritime archaeology (innovative practice).

This paper reports on a pilot study evaluating the impact of a series of interactive and educational maritime archaeological sessions for people with dementia. A typical archaeological approach was adopted including excavations, recovery and reconstruction of artefacts. Findings from this study demonstrate the importance of providing information, delivering alternative activities, enabling educational opportunities and offering support to and for people living with dementia. Our findings further illustrate that people with dementia can be included in maritime archaeology and that including people with dementia in heritage-based initiatives is possible