Enhancing Covid-19 Decision-Making by Creating an Assurance Case for Simulation Models

Simulation models have been informing the COVID-19 policy-making process. These models, therefore, have significant influence on risk of societal harms. But how clearly are the underlying modelling assumptions and limitations communicated so that decision-makers can readily understand them? When making claims about risk in safety-critical systems, it is common practice to produce an assurance case, which is a structured argument supported by evidence with the aim to assess how confident we should be in our risk-based decisions. We argue that any COVID-19 simulation model that is used to guide critical policy decisions would benefit from being supported with such a case to explain how, and to what extent, the evidence from the simulation can be relied on to substantiate policy conclusions. This would enable a critical review of the implicit assumptions and inherent uncertainty in modelling, and would give the overall decision-making process greater transparency and accountability.Comment: 6 pages and 2 figure

Bipyraloxifene – a modified raloxifene vector against triple-negative breast cancer

Raloxifene, a selective oestrogen receptor modulator (SERM), has demonstrated efficacy in the prevention and therapy of oestrogen receptor-positive (ER+) breast cancer, with some degree of effectiveness against triple-negative forms. This suggests the presence of oestrogen receptor-independent pathways in raloxifene-mediated anticancer activity. To enhance the potential of raloxifene against the most aggressive breast cancer cells, hybrid molecules combining the drug with a metal chelator moiety have been developed. In this study, we synthetically modified the structure of raloxifene by incorporating a 2,2′-bipyridine (2,2′-bipy) moiety, resulting in [6-methoxy-2-(4-hydroxyphenyl)benzo[b]thiophen-3-yl]-[4-(2,2′-bipyridin-4′-yl-methoxy)phenyl]methanone (bipyraloxifene). We investigated the cytotoxic activity of both raloxifene and bipyraloxifene against ER+ breast adenocarcinomas, glioblastomas, and a triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) cell line, elucidating their mode of action against TNBC. Bipyraloxifene maintained a mechanism based on caspase-mediated apoptosis but exhibited significantly higher activity and selectivity compared to the original drug, particularly evident in triple-negative stem-like MDA-MB-231 cells

Evaluation of Gateway and Low-Cost Traffic-Calming Treatments for Major Routes in Small Rural Communities

Many rural communities have developed around highways or major county roads; as a result, the main street through small rural communities is often part of a high-speed rural highway. Highways and county roads are characterized by high speeds outside the city limits; they then transition into a reduced speed section through the rural community. Consequently, drivers passing through the community often enter at high speeds and maintain those speeds as they travel through the community. Traffic calming in small rural communities along major roadways is common in Europe, but the U.S. does not have experience with applying traffic-calming measures outside of major urban areas. The purpose of the project was to evaluate traffic-calming treatments on the major road through small Iowa communities using either single-measure low-cost or gateway treatments. The project was partially funded by the Iowa Highway Research Board (IHRB). The focus of the IHRB portion was to evaluate single-measure, low-cost, traffic-calming measures that are appropriate to major roads through small rural communities. Seven different low-cost traffic treatments were implemented and evaluated in five rural Iowa communities. The research evaluated the use of two gateway treatments in Union and Roland; five single-measure treatments (speed table, on-pavement “SLOW” markings, a driver speed feedback sign, tubular markers, and on-pavement entrance treatments) were evaluated in Gilbert, Slater, and Dexter

The P300 as a Marker of Waning Attention and Error Propensity

Action errors can occur when routine responses are triggered inappropriately by familiar cues. Here, EEG was recorded as volunteers performed a “go/no-go” task of long duration that occasionally and unexpectedly required them to withhold a frequent, routine response. EEG components locked to the onset of relevant go trials were sorted according to whether participants erroneously responded to immediately subsequent no-go trials or correctly withheld their responses. Errors were associated with a significant relative reduction in the amplitude of the preceding P300, that is, a judgement could be made bout whether a response-inhibition error was likely before it had actually occurred. Furthermore, fluctuations in P300 amplitude across the task formed a reliable associate of individual error propensity, supporting its use as a marker of sustained control over action

Enhancing COVID-19 decision making by creating an assurance case for epidemiological models

When the UK government was first confronted with the very real threat of a COVID-19 pandemic, policy-makers turned quickly, and initially almost exclusively, to scientific data provided by epidemiological models. These models have had a direct and significant influence on the policies and decisions, such as social distancing and closure of schools, which aim to reduce the risk posed by COVID-19 to public health.1 The models suggested that depending on the strategies chosen, the number of deaths could vary by hundreds of thousands. From a safety engineering perspective, it is clear that the data generated by epidemiological models are safety critical, and that, therefore, the models themselves should be regarded as safety-critical systems

Disturbance alters ecosystem engineering by a canopy-forming alga

Canopy-forming fucoid algae have an important role as ecosystem engineers on rocky intertidal shores, where they increase the abundance of species otherwise limited by exposure during low tide. The facilitative relationship between Ascophyllum nodosum and associated organisms was explored using a frond breakage experiment (100%, 50%, 25%, 0% intact-frond treatments) in southern England, to assess the consequences of disturbance. Understorey substratum temperature was on average 3°C higher in 0% and 25% intact-frond treatments than in plots with 50% and 100% intact fronds. Light (as PAR during low tide) doubled in 0% intact-frond treatments in comparison to other treatments (which had similar light levels). Mobile invertebrate species richness declined by on average 1 species per m2 in the treatments with only 25% and 0% intact fronds, and the abundance of Littorina obtusata declined by 2.4-4.2 individuals per m2 in the treatments with 25 and 0% intact fronds. Sessile taxa, including Osmundea pinnatifida and encrusting coralline algae, declined by half on average in the 0% intact-frond treatment. These results suggest that the ability of Ascophyllum to mediate environmental conditions to the understorey is the mechanism responsible for species distributed in the understorey (autogenic ecosystem engineering). The results of this study imply that a pulse disturbance resulting in a 50% breakage of Ascophyllum fronds significantly increases temperature and decreases the abundance of mobile invertebrates usually associated with Ascophyllum. Sessile taxa associated with Ascophyllum can, however, withstand disturbances down to 25% intact Ascophyllum fronds.</p

DNA replication roadblocks caused by Cascade Interference complexes are alleviated by RecG DNA repair helicase

Cascade complexes underpin E. coli CRISPR-Cas immunity systems by stimulating "adaptation" reactions that update immunity and by initiating "interference" reactions that destroy invader DNA. Recognition of invader DNA in Cascade catalysed R-loops provokes DNA capture and its subsequent integration into CRISPR loci by Cas1 and Cas2. DNA capture processes are unclear but may involve RecG helicase, which stimulates adaptation during its role responding to genome instability. We show that Cascade is a potential source of genome instability because it blocks DNA replication and that RecG helicase alleviates this by dissociating Cascade. This highlights how integrating in vitro CRISPR-Cas interference and adaptation reactions with DNA replication and repair reactions will help to determine precise mechanisms underpinning prokaryotic adaptive immunity

Increasing influence of heat stress on French maize yields from the 1960s to the 2030s

Improved crop yield forecasts could enable more effective adaptation to climate variability and change. Here, we explore how to combine historical observations of crop yields and weather with climate model simulations to produce crop yield projections for decision relevant timescales. Firstly, the effects on historical crop yields of improved technology, precipitation and daily maximum temperatures are modelled empirically, accounting for a nonlinear technology trend and interactions between temperature and precipitation, and applied specifically for a case study of maize in France. The relative importance of precipitation variability for maize yields in France has decreased significantly since the 1960s, likely due to increased irrigation. In addition, heat stress is found to be as important for yield as precipitation since around 2000. A significant reduction in maize yield is found for each day with a maximum temperature above 32 °C, in broad agreement with previous estimates. The recent increase in such hot days has likely contributed to the observed yield stagnation. Furthermore, a general method for producing near-term crop yield projections, based on climate model simulations, is developed and utilized. We use projections of future daily maximum temperatures to assess the likely change in yields due to variations in climate. Importantly, we calibrate the climate model projections using observed data to ensure both reliable temperature mean and daily variability characteristics, and demonstrate that these methods work using retrospective predictions. We conclude that, to offset the projected increased daily maximum temperatures over France, improved technology will need to increase base level yields by 12% to be confident about maintaining current levels of yield for the period 2016–2035; the current rate of yield technology increase is not sufficient to meet this target