Development of a population-based microsimulation model of osteoarthritis in Canada

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of the study was to develop a population-based simulation model of osteoarthritis (OA) in Canada that can be used to quantify the future health and economic burden of OA under a range of scenarios for changes in the OA risk factors and treatments. In this article we describe the overall structure of the model, sources of data, derivation of key input parameters for the epidemiological component of the model, and preliminary validation studies. DESIGN: We used the Population Health Model (POHEM) platform to develop a stochastic continuous-time microsimulation model of physician-diagnosed OA. Incidence rates were calibrated to agree with administrative data for the province of British Columbia, Canada. The effect of obesity on OA incidence and the impact of OA on health-related quality of life (HRQL) were modeled using Canadian national surveys. RESULTS: Incidence rates of OA in the model increase approximately linearly with age in both sexes between the ages of 50 and 80 and plateau in the very old. In those aged 50+, the rates are substantially higher in women. At baseline, the prevalence of OA is 11.5%, 13.6% in women and 9.3% in men. The OA hazard ratios for obesity are 2.0 in women and 1.7 in men. The effect of OA diagnosis on HRQL, as measured by the Health Utilities Index Mark 3 (HUI3), is to reduce it by 0.10 in women and 0.14 in men. CONCLUSIONS: We describe the development of the first population-based microsimulation model of OA. Strengths of this model include the use of large population databases to derive the key parameters and the application of modern microsimulation technology. Limitations of the model reflect the limitations of administrative and survey data and gaps in the epidemiological and HRQL literature

Increased population exposure to Amphan‐scale cyclones under future climates

International audienceAbstract Southern Asia experiences some of the most damaging climate events in the world, with loss of life from some cyclones in the hundreds of thousands. Despite this, research on climate extremes in the region is substantially lacking compared to other parts of the world. To understand the narrative of how an extreme event in the region may change in the future, we consider Super Cyclone Amphan, which made landfall in May 2020, bringing storm surges of 2–4 m to coastlines of India and Bangladesh. Using the latest CMIP6 climate model projections, coupled with storm surge, hydrological, and socio‐economic models, we consider how the population exposure to a storm surge of Amphan's scale changes in the future. We vary future sea level rise and population changes consistent with projections out to 2100, but keep other factors constant. Both India and Bangladesh will be negatively impacted, with India showing >200% increased exposure to extreme storm surge flooding (>3 m) under a high emissions scenario and Bangladesh showing an increase in exposure of >80% for low‐level flooding (>0.1 m). It is only when we follow a low‐emission scenario, consistent with the 2°C Paris Agreement Goal, that we see no real change in Bangladesh's storm surge exposure, mainly due to the population and climate signals cancelling each other out. For India, even with this low‐emission scenario, increases in flood exposure are still substantial (>50%). While here we attribute only the storm surge flooding component of the event to climate change, we highlight that tropical cyclones are multifaceted, and damages are often an integration of physical and social components. We recommend that future climate risk assessments explicitly account for potential compounding factors

Intra-Operative Assessment of Cancer with X-Ray Phase Contrast Computed Tomography

X-ray Phase-Contrast Computed Tomography (PC-CT) increases contrast in weakly attenuating samples, such as soft tissues. In Edge-Illumination (EI) PC-CT, phase effects are accessed from amplitude modulation of the x-ray beam using alternating transmitting and attenuating masks placed prior to the sample and detector. A large field of view PC-CT scanner using this technique was applied to two areas of cancer assessment, namely excised breast and esophageal tissue. For the breast tissue, Wide Local Excisions (WLEs) were studied intra-operatively using PC-CT for the evaluation of tumor removal in breast conservation surgery. Images were acquired in 10 minutes without compromising on image quality, showing this can be used in a clinical setting. Longer, higher resolution PC-CT images were also taken, with analysis showing previously undetected thinning of tumor strands. This would allow a second use of the system for “virtual histopathology”, outside of surgery. For the esophagus samples, tissues were taken from esophagectomy surgery, where the lower part of the esophagus is removed, and the stomach relocated. For the assessment of ongoing therapy, accurate staging of tumors in the removed esophagus is essential, with the current gold standard provided by histopathology. PCCT images were acquired on several samples and compare well with histopathology, with both modalities showing similar features. Examples are shown where staging of tumor penetration is possible with PC-CT images alone, which is hoped will be an important step in performing the imaging and staging intra-operatively

The association between baseline persistent pain and weight change in patients attending a specialist weight management service

To quantify the influence of baseline pain levels on weight change at one-year follow-up in patients attending a National Health Service specialist weight management programme.We compared one-year follow-up weight (body mass) change between patient sub-groups of none-to-mild, moderate, and severe pain at baseline. A mean sub-group difference in weight change of ≥5kg was considered clinically relevant.Of the 141 complete cases, n = 43 (30.5%) reported none-to-mild pain, n = 44 (31.2%) reported moderate pain, and n = 54 (38.3%) reported severe pain. Covariate-adjusted mean weight loss (95%CI) was similar for those with none-to-mild (8.1kg (4.2 to 12.0kg)) and moderate pain (8.3kg (4.9 to 11.7kg). The mean weight loss of 3.0kg (-0.4 to 6.4kg) for the severe pain group was 5.1kg (-0.6 to 10.7, p = 0.08) lower than the none-to-mild pain group and 5.3kg (0.4 to 10.2kg, p = 0.03) lower than the moderate pain group.Patients with severe pain upon entry to a specialist weight management service in England achieve a smaller mean weight loss at one-year follow-up than those with none-to-moderate pain. The magnitude of the difference in mean weight loss was clinically relevant, highlighting the importance of addressing severe persistent pain in obese patients undertaking weight management programmes

Effectiveness of physiotherapy exercise following total knee replacement: Systematic review and meta-analysis

© 2015 Artz et al. Background: Rehabilitation, with an emphasis on physiotherapy and exercise, is widely promoted after total knee replacement. However, provision of services varies in content and duration. The aim of this study is to update the review of Minns Lowe and colleagues 2007 using systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the effectiveness of post-discharge physiotherapy exercise in patients with primary total knee replacement. Methods: We searched MEDLINE, Embase, PsycInfo, CINAHL and Cochrane CENTRAL to October 4th 2013 for randomised evaluations of physiotherapy exercise in adults with recent primary knee replacement. Outcomes were: patient-reported pain and function, knee range of motion, and functional performance. Authors were contacted for missing data and outcomes. Risk of bias and heterogeneity were assessed. Data was combined using random effects meta-analysis and reported as standardised mean differences (SMD) or mean differences (MD). Results: Searches identified 18 randomised trials including 1,739 patients with total knee replacement. Interventions compared: physiotherapy exercise and no provision; home and outpatient provision; pool and gym-based provision; walking skills and more general physiotherapy; and general physiotherapy exercise with and without additional balance exercises or ergometer cycling. Compared with controls receiving minimal physiotherapy, patients receiving physiotherapy exercise had improved physical function at 3-4 months, SMD -0.37 (95% CI -0.62, -0.12), and pain, SMD -0.45 (95% CI -0.85, -0.06). Benefit up to 6 months was apparent when considering only higher quality studies. There were no differences for outpatient physiotherapy exercise compared with home-based provision in physical function or pain outcomes. There was a short-term benefit favouring home-based physiotherapy exercise for range of motion flexion. There were no differences in outcomes when the comparator was hydrotherapy, or when additional balancing or cycling components were included. In one study, a walking skills intervention was associated with a long-term improvement in walking performance. However, for all these evaluations studies were under-powered individually and in combination. Conclusion: After recent primary total knee replacement, interventions including physiotherapy and exercise show short-term improvements in physical function. However this conclusion is based on meta-analysis of a few small studies and no long-term benefits of physiotherapy exercise interventions were identified. Future research should target improvements to long-term function, pain and performance outcomes in appropriately powered trials

Fluid Intelligence and Psychosocial Outcome: From Logical Problem Solving to Social Adaptation

While fluid intelligence has proved to be central to executive functioning, logical reasoning and other frontal functions, the role of this ability in psychosocial adaptation has not been well characterized.Lower fluid intelligence scores were associated with physical violence, both in the role of victim and victimizer. Drug intake, especially cannabis, cocaine and inhalants and lower self-esteem were also associated with lower fluid intelligence. Finally, scores on the perceived mental health assessment were better when fluid intelligence scores were higher.Our results show evidence of a strong association between psychosocial adaptation and fluid intelligence, suggesting that the latter is not only central to executive functioning but also forms part of a more general capacity for adaptation to social contexts